Flipped Counties

[Schiff for Senate]

Predict one county that will most likely flip in 2024, the margin by which it flips, and name the GOP and Democratic candidates in this case.
For example, I predict that in a DeSantis vs. Harris matchup, Pinellas County flips Republican by about 3-4%.

[Chips]

Harris vs. DeSantis: Montgomery County, OH. DeSantis wins it back by a point or so.

[Schiff for Senate]

Oklahoma County, OK, flips blue in 2024 in any matchup including Trump, by about 1-2% or so.

[wxtransit]

Going with the DeSantis trend, if he runs, I think Tarrant County flips back by about a point.

[Real Texan Politics]

Starr County, TX: DeSantis wins by 3 against Harris.

[S019]

Collin County, TX: Harris+2 over DeSantis

[Real Texan Politics]

Collin County, TX: Harris+2 over DeSantis

I don't see Harris winning it. Biden (barely) could over DeSantis, and could very likely win it over Trump, but Harris just doesn't seem like an appealing candidate to Collin County.

I think DeSantis would win it by 5, but will likely flip (even with DeSantis as the incumbent) in 2028.

[S019]

Collin County, TX: Harris+2 over DeSantis

I don't see Harris winning it. Biden (barely) could over DeSantis, and could very likely win it over Trump, but Harris just doesn't seem like an appealing candidate to Collin County.

I think DeSantis would win it by 5, but will likely flip (even with DeSantis as the incumbent) in 2028.

I just don't see a county that had a massive Dem swing in a region with a massive swing, suddenly staying static.

[Schiff for Senate]

Collin County, TX: Harris+2 over DeSantis

I don't see Harris winning it. Biden (barely) could over DeSantis, and could very likely win it over Trump, but Harris just doesn't seem like an appealing candidate to Collin County.

I think DeSantis would win it by 5, but will likely flip (even with DeSantis as the incumbent) in 2028.

I just don't see a county that had a massive Dem swing in a region with a massive swing, suddenly staying static.

I think it will, or potentially even shift slightly rightward - some suburbanite voters voted Democratic in 2020 only because the GOP nominee was Trump; with a potentially less controversial candidate in 2024, there may be some suburban backlash; though it's unlikely, I can see Tarrant County even going back to the GOP in 2024.

[Alcibiades]

DeSantis as King of the Suburbs is quite frankly ridiculous. Suburbia has been on a 30+ year trend to the Democrats; sorry Fat Ron stans, even your man cannot hold back these tides. Furthermore, in many cases, especially in the Sun Belt, the shift has been down to demographic change more than it has people actually switching their vote.

[Republicans Are Fake Populists]

DeSantis as King of the Suburbs is quite frankly ridiculous. Suburbia has been on a 30+ year trend to the Democrats; sorry Fat Ron stans, even your man cannot hold back these tides. Furthermore, in many cases, especially in the Sun Belt, the shift has been down to demographic change more than it has people actually switching their vote.

DeSantis is overrated but the Democratic gains in suburbia are unsustainable.

Focus on bringing back the 2012 coalition.

[Schiff for Senate]

DeSantis as King of the Suburbs is quite frankly ridiculous. Suburbia has been on a 30+ year trend to the Democrats; sorry Fat Ron stans, even your man cannot hold back these tides. Furthermore, in many cases, especially in the Sun Belt, the shift has been down to demographic change more than it has people actually switching their vote.

DeSantis is overrated but the Democratic gains in suburbia are unsustainable.

Focus on bringing back the 2012 coalition.

Some of it may be gone forever. I don't think Elliott County, KY, or Ashtabula County, OH, to name just a couple of counties, will be coming back any time soon.

[Xing]

A lot of the suburban gains have not been a Trump specific phenomenon, and some are due to population growth as well. And it’s not like Republicans such as DeSantis are much of a departure from Trump. I don’t think a county like Cobb is going to get any less Democratic, for example. I’ll guess that Fayette, GA flips by a point or two in 2024.