Why is the Supreme Court Hesitating on Abortion?

[dw93]

They're not going to repeal Roe v. Wade all at once. There will never be one single case that overturns Roe. Instead, they're going to chip away at it until the letter of the case remains, but it confers no rights whatsoever.

Why are they going to do it this way? Simply put, there would be too much backlash if they did it outright.

This, but even then, abortion would still be legal in one form or another in at least 15-20 states, fully legal in  ~10 of them.

[bagelman]

I think we've reached a consensus - GOP judges are partisan and see the advantage of keeping abortion as a turnout driver for their party while fearing the opposite happening if they do repeal.

As a Democrat, this makes me really want them to do it. Show some backbone. Because they could be wrong. America could just accept it after a short backlash. More states may simply legalize it anyway. It would be nice if politicians or judges from either party could be bold for their vision of America.

[Skill and Chance]

I think we need someone on the right to be upfront.  Abortion, gay marriage, climate change, war on drugs, etc, these are all dead issues.  There's no point trying to bring back a past that the majority of people don't want.  We need to focus on a future where we demand accountability, equality, freedom, and liberty.  That includes ending the teaching and promotion of racist policies like affirmative action and critical race theory, introducing voter ID laws to prevent fraud, ending censorship on big tech and media outlets, and holding police accountable for abuses of power.  The reason Trump beat all the others in the 2016 primary was because he offered new ideas.  The old Bush/Reagan era of conservatism is long gone.  The Republicans need to rebrand themselves as a party that offers protection and ideas for all Americans.  Gay, straight, black, white, immigrant, native, doesn't matter.

Abortion is in a different category from these other issues.  Public opinion has not moved in a pro-choice direction in any meaningful way.  You could even make a case it's moving slowly in a pro-life direction.  Biden underperformed significantly and just barely won the election, so I also don't buy the argument that there was some huge backlash to the ACB confirmation.  It seemed plausible at the time, but there was no Biden landslide to show for it.

Also, climate change is kind of in it's own category because while public opinion has moved left (though not as dramatically as the other 2000's social issues), resource extraction industries are very spread out, so in any system with geographical representation, you need supermajority support for any climate policy to stick.  The US Senate makes this somewhat harder, but you can see the same thing in parliamentary systems with geographic districts like Australia and the UK.

I agree somewhat.  I think Republicans should shift the goal posts a bit on abortion.  An outright ban on abortion would be really unpopular.  A recent Gallup poll shows only 20% of Americans would support an all-out-ban, however an additional 50% support allowing abortion with some restrictions.  This is what the 2024 Republican candidate should campaign on so they are both able to keep their promises without alienating the Christian wing of their base.

Some other interesting stats...

-> 67% of Americans say marriages between same-sex couples should be legally valid (Gallup 2020)

-> 60% view climate change as a major threat to the well-being of the United States (Pew Research 2020)

-> 68% support federal legalization of marijuana (Gallup 2020)

Yes, it's complicated because while having the legal system treat it like murder is a fringe position, a supermajority comes down on the relatively "pro-life" side of current law. 

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

They keep stepping back from the brink of just overturning Roe vs. Wade and Planned Parenthood vs. Casey outright from a desire to avoid a massive backlash from women and the left that would not only imperil the Republican Party, but also the very legitimacy of the Supreme Court itself.  They do not want such a decision to be viewed in the same light as Dred Scott vs. Sandford or Plessy vs. Ferguson.  So better to stick with the slow but steady erosion and hollowing-out of abortion rights that eventually renders the original decision a dead letter.

The idea that women would lash out against something that women are more likely to support is hilarious.

Once again, that literally isn't correct.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think we need someone on the right to be upfront.  Abortion, gay marriage, climate change, war on drugs, etc, these are all dead issues.  There's no point trying to bring back a past that the majority of people don't want.  We need to focus on a future where we demand accountability, equality, freedom, and liberty.  That includes ending the teaching and promotion of racist policies like affirmative action and critical race theory, introducing voter ID laws to prevent fraud, ending censorship on big tech and media outlets, and holding police accountable for abuses of power.  The reason Trump beat all the others in the 2016 primary was because he offered new ideas.  The old Bush/Reagan era of conservatism is long gone.  The Republicans need to rebrand themselves as a party that offers protection and ideas for all Americans.  Gay, straight, black, white, immigrant, native, doesn't matter.
The Bible thumping doesn’t work anymore so triple down on the cross burning

FIFY

Oh s***, how did you find out I'm a member of the Ku Klux Klan? Get out of here. 🤣

I meant cross burning more as a allegory for racism based culture wars and you were just advocating abandoning religious wedge issues for white identity politics and cultural grievances

[Badger]

Because they are Republicans and they know that the end of the abortion issue will be the end of the Republican Party. A whole lot of people will suddenly have no reason to vote R anymore, and D turnout will reach never-before-seen levels. Remember what happened on ActBlue after RBG's death? That was just from fear of it happening. Imagine it actually happening.

Not at all. Then it'll be a non-stop battle to "keep abortion illegal".

[Person Man]

I think we need someone on the right to be upfront.  Abortion, gay marriage, climate change, war on drugs, etc, these are all dead issues.  There's no point trying to bring back a past that the majority of people don't want.  We need to focus on a future where we demand accountability, equality, freedom, and liberty.  That includes ending the teaching and promotion of racist policies like affirmative action and critical race theory, introducing voter ID laws to prevent fraud, ending censorship on big tech and media outlets, and holding police accountable for abuses of power.  The reason Trump beat all the others in the 2016 primary was because he offered new ideas.  The old Bush/Reagan era of conservatism is long gone.  The Republicans need to rebrand themselves as a party that offers protection and ideas for all Americans.  Gay, straight, black, white, immigrant, native, doesn't matter.
The Bible thumping doesn’t work anymore so triple down on the cross burning

FIFY

Oh s***, how did you find out I'm a member of the Ku Klux Klan? Get out of here. 🤣

I meant cross burning more as a allegory for racism based culture wars and you were just advocating abandoning religious wedge issues for white identity politics and cultural grievances

In his defense, how else are you supposed to have a nationalist Agenda with declining religious fundamentalism?

For example, you don’t even have to have it be “white” identity politics for it to work. Isn’t Ford nation basically an ideology of just putting everybody in jail? It’s kind of the deal here in Florida where you could have people who aren’t even white or don’t give a rat’s ass about abortion or drugs be very nationalistic and want laws banning protests, whistleblowing, and “socialism”. It’s like what Lee Atwater said about the 1988 campaign. Make things abstract.