SC GOP offers to host first primary debate

[Mr. Morden]

From the Hotline's blog:

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/08/2008_presidenti.html

"The South Carolina Republican Party wants to host the first presidential forum of the '08 cycle. The party announced today that Republican presidential candidates will gather in Columbia on May 15, 2007 for a televised debate. State party ED Scott Malyerck has had what he called "informal discussions" with advisers to major potential presidential candidates and called their responses "great." A number of television networks, he said, are eager to host the debate. South Carolina hosted the first-in-the-nation debate in 2003, when ABC's George Stephanopoulos moderated a forum of Democrats. The GOP's debate will take place at the Koger Center, a 1500 seat theatre on the campus of the University of South Carolina."

[zorkpolitics]

Who would get invited?  Only announced candidates? 

[Mr. Morden]

Presumably anyone who has announced that they're forming an "exploratory committee" to decide on whether to run.  By May of 2007, just about the entire field will have decided, and will have at least started the exploratory committee, even if they haven't made the official announcement to run.

[Tender Branson]

Any information when the 1. Dem debate is ? Do you think it will be some time around the GOP primary ?

[Mr. Morden]

No idea.  In 2003, the first one was also held some time in the spring.  However, at that time, there was no clear-cut frontrunner.  As long as there's no frontrunner (or at least as long as the frontrunner's lead is very small), all of the candidates are scrambling for more media attention, so they'll welcome a debate.  But when there's a frontrunner, the frontrunner isn't going to want to expose himself/herself to making a costly mistake, so they probably won't agree to an early debate.  Without the frontrunner at the debate, the media will completely ignore it.  (This is what happened in 1999, when Bush skipped the first couple of debates.)

If Hillary continues to be viewed as the frontrunner, she might not agree to debate as early as spring 2007.  I guess you could make the same case for McCain on the GOP side, but I don't see him as being as much of a frontrunner as HRC.