Will Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico ever trend Republican soon?

[SAAuthCapitalist]

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Nevada is always tilt or lean Democrat but I do not know if it flips

Colorado swung heavily left recently even though it used to be a swing state.

New Mexico is likely to safe Democrat.

Who is a Republican that can win those states or that part of the country, including Arizona?

[Xing]

Nevada is destined to be the next Missouri, at least according to Atlas, and New Mexico will as well, any day now!!

In all seriousness, while it’s hard to tell what will happen long-term, I’d guess Nevada and New Mexico remain about where they are right now, while Colorado keeps trending Democratic.

[Kuumo]

Nevada has already been trending Republican, and New Mexico seems likely to trend Republican in the near future since it is also more rural, less educated, lower income, and more Hispanic than the national average. Colorado seems extremely unlikely to trend Republican significantly without a major change in party coalitions because it is one of the most educated states in the country.

[Jamison5]

Well Nevada has trended around 2.4 points red each of the last 3 cycles and is to the right of the NPV now. New Mexico has consistently been around 6 points to the left of the NPV since 2008 and maybe could get closer than that soon. Colorado is gone. Colorado's trend had appeared to slow down a bit but then moved a ton in 2020.

[Chips]

Well Nevada has trended around 2.4 points red each of the last 3 cycles and is to the right of the NPV now. New Mexico has consistently been around 6 points to the left of the NPV since 2008 and maybe could get closer than that soon. Colorado is gone. Colorado's trend had appeared to slow down a bit but then moved a ton in 2020.

[S019]

Nevada will probably remain compensate, CO is totally gone, as for NM, yes it has a lot of rural Hispanics who still vote D, but the white voter base in NM is very educated and concentrated in big cities, particularly Albuquerque, so I view it as unlikely to trend R anytime soon. I see "Red NM" is this forum's new favorite meme.

[Devils30]

NV has had good recent trends for GOP but to win the state they'll need to make inroads in urban Vegas. Exit polls still had Biden winning under 45 voters by 15-20% and the non-white % is really high and not exaggerated as friendly for Dems like it can be in NC.

[Non Swing Voter]

Really think there were unique factors to Nevada's republican trend:

(1) Tourism industry in Las Vegas devastated by covid and Republicans seen as being more business friendly/wanting to reopen the economy (people here underestimate how many voters vote their personal interests and are also short sighted).

(2) Hispanics tending to favor incumbents (as has been discussed a lot in other threads).

The hispanic thing did somewhat impact other states that still trended left, but a lot of those states had lots of college educated voters to make up for it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As long as D's keep winning PVI by 3 pts these three states along with VA will remain D