Al, give me your synopsis on Nick Griffin / BNP / potential ceiling

[© tweed]

I'm not a believer in anything crazy regarding the forthcoming success of the Griffin-BNP in the '10s. but what's the max, here?  translated into seats in the HoC and the EU Parliament, or better, national pv totals.

[Хahar 🤔]

0 seats in the Commons.

The BNP didn't come close to winning in any constituency even in the Euros.

[afleitch]

Apparently the BNP are piling into Barking where Griffin is standing with paper candidates elsewhere.

They won't win Barking.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Stranger things have happened, but, yeah, seems like '0' at the moment. As noted already, the BNP didn't lead anywhere in the European elections (which were, as far as circumstances go, almost as favourable to them as elections are ever likely to get). They also didn't lead in Barking in the GLA elections (also favourable circumstances for the BNP).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently the BNP are piling into Barking where Griffin is standing with paper candidates elsewhere.

If that's true (and it sounds like the sort of thing they'd do, so...) then that's pretty stupid of them, what with local elections probably being on the same day.

[k-onmmunist]

0 seats. Same with UKIP, the Greens and many other parties. Democracy is a sham.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

0 seats. Same with UKIP, the Greens and many other parties.

Greens could win a seat in Brighton (not convinced that they actually will, but it's possible). There are other places where they will poll well, but are unlikely to get close to winning, though maybe Norfolk will do different.

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lol

Your problem here isn't with democracy, but with fptp.

[k-onmmunist]

0 seats. Same with UKIP, the Greens and many other parties.

Greens could win a seat in Brighton (not convinced that they actually will, but it's possible). There are other places where they will poll well, but are unlikely to get close to winning, though maybe Norfolk will do different.

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lol

Your problem here isn't with democracy, but with fptp.

Well, yes, FPTP is the greater of two evils.

[You kip if you want to...]

A grand total of 0 will be the HoC peak and they've already reached their EU peak.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

and they've already reached their EU peak.

If they can't tap into other sources of support, yeah, maybe. My worry with the BNP is (and has been for a while) what might happen in the midterm of a Tory government, especially if they can hold onto most of their existing support. Admittedly, some of their image problems, inability to properly tap into rural racism and the existence of UKIP should prevent the worst-case scenario from happening.

[You kip if you want to...]

and they've already reached their EU peak.

If they can't tap into other sources of support, yeah, maybe. My worry with the BNP is (and has been for a while) what might happen in the midterm of a Tory government, especially if they can hold onto most of their existing support. Admittedly, some of their image problems, inability to properly tap into rural racism and the existence of UKIP should prevent the worst-case scenario from happening.

I imagine once the new Tory government is in full swing, alot of Labour's lost BNP support will slowly start to fall back.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

and they've already reached their EU peak.

If they can't tap into other sources of support, yeah, maybe. My worry with the BNP is (and has been for a while) what might happen in the midterm of a Tory government, especially if they can hold onto most of their existing support. Admittedly, some of their image problems, inability to properly tap into rural racism and the existence of UKIP should prevent the worst-case scenario from happening.

I imagine once the new Tory government is in full swing, alot of Labour's lost BNP support will slowly start to fall back.

That would depend on what Labour-in-Opposition ends up being like (far too early to tell at this stage)... even so... we're only talking of a minority of the BNP's current vote. A relatively large one, but a minority all the same.

[k-onmmunist]

You guys still think the Tories will win? I'm beginning to have my doubts.

[You kip if you want to...]

You guys still think the Tories will win? I'm beginning to have my doubts.

I'd buy a good few lottery tickets if Labour had a majority this time next year. A hung parliment is the best they can hope for. Although, of course i'm ignoring the possibility of some freak 1992 style occurence.

[k-onmmunist]

You guys still think the Tories will win? I'm beginning to have my doubts.

I'd buy a good few lottery tickets if Labour had a majority this time next year. A hung parliment is the best they can hope for. Although, of course i'm ignoring the possibility of some freak 1992 style occurence.

That's what I'm beginning to think will happen.

[You kip if you want to...]

You guys still think the Tories will win? I'm beginning to have my doubts.

I'd buy a good few lottery tickets if Labour had a majority this time next year. A hung parliment is the best they can hope for. Although, of course i'm ignoring the possibility of some freak 1992 style occurence.

That's what I'm beginning to think will happen.

Whether it'd be a good or bad thing, i'd love to see the reaction of Cameron/Osbourne.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour normally has to be leading going into the official campaign period to actually have a chance at winning. This still looks unlikely. Remember - the Tories have been heavily targetting the marginals and can outspend all other parties easily these days. There are still no signs that swing voters (as a block) have been thinking about swinging back.

[k-onmmunist]

You guys still think the Tories will win? I'm beginning to have my doubts.

I'd buy a good few lottery tickets if Labour had a majority this time next year. A hung parliment is the best they can hope for. Although, of course i'm ignoring the possibility of some freak 1992 style occurence.

That's what I'm beginning to think will happen.

Whether it'd be a good or bad thing, i'd love to see the reaction of Cameron/Osbourne.

Labour need to lose this election. Power has corrupted them.

[afleitch]

Labour normally has to be leading going into the official campaign period to actually have a chance at winning. This still looks unlikely. Remember - the Tories have been heavily targetting the marginals and can outspend all other parties easily these days. There are still no signs that swing voters (as a block) have been thinking about swinging back.

There has been a hardening of Labour support. Their 'retention' vote (ie how many of their 2005 voters will still vote for them) that was struggling in the 50's 60's has now reached about 70%. Prior to the recent bounce Labour never picked up voters from elsewhere; they are now picking up a small % of 2005 Lib Dem voters (who were probably Labour voters in 2001 etc)

The Tories, particularly in the 'how would you vote in your constituency' question are beginning to seep 5-6% to the Lib Dems; this may in fact be the beginning of a pre-election 'tactical drift' to the Lib Dems; it's bad news if they are drifting to the Lib Dems in Lib/Con marginals but good if they are moving to the Lib Dems in seats where the Tories don't have a chance.

All this will narrow the national gap between the parties but that doesn't necessarily mean that there is any change on the ground. Labour have also seen a firming of support in Scotland. The Toriy lead across England/Wales is a few points higher if you pull out Scotland; a rather infertile ground for the Tories.

It's also worth remembering is that there isn't much coming out from Brown Central or the Tories about the recent polls; no cofidence or lack thereof. It is probable that their internal polling is saying the same thing.

[You kip if you want to...]

You guys still think the Tories will win? I'm beginning to have my doubts.

I'd buy a good few lottery tickets if Labour had a majority this time next year. A hung parliment is the best they can hope for. Although, of course i'm ignoring the possibility of some freak 1992 style occurence.

That's what I'm beginning to think will happen.

Whether it'd be a good or bad thing, i'd love to see the reaction of Cameron/Osbourne.

Labour need to lose this election. Power has corrupted them.

I agree, although the thought of the Tories in government makes me realise it's hardly worth losing Labour.

[Silent Hunter]

This thread proves Al is a legendary pundit. He should be on TV, seriously.

[Хahar 🤔]

This thread proves Al is a legendary pundit. He should be on TV, seriously.

I'm not sure he can blather inanities like a TV pundit must.

[Platypus]

Apparently the BNP are piling into Barking where Griffin is standing with paper candidates elsewhere.

They won't win Barking.

I don't know, I heard a lot of people there were Barking mad.