Which state is more likely to flip in 2024?

[SnowLabrador]

I'm voting New Hampshire.

[Xing]

wy and dc are more likely to flip than either tbh

[MT Treasurer]

FL to the Democrats, and it’s not particularly close. FL at least has D-friendly countertrends and more uncertainty in some areas that trended strongly R in 2020.

Yes, I’d rate FL (a strong) Lean R, but it’s really hard to justify rating NH as anything other than Likely D at this point.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

NH, not because FL is now titanium Republican, but NH just has more elasticity than Florida. If Biden's approvals slip, and the GOP nominates the right kind of candidate for New England (I know it's not gonna happen, but it is technically possible), NH could flip. And/or if there is a challenger on the left who takes a lot of the more Vermont-esque voters in NH, à la Nader 2000, this also complicates things for Dems.

Whereas in Florida, while there's a good chance that Cubans/Venezuelans et al switch back after seeing that Joe Biden isn't literally Fidel Castro, it still likely would not be enough, given a lot of population growth in FL is retirees. Besides, FL doesn't have the elasticity of NH, it's a pretty partisan state where the Dems have a tendency to choke like it's a Popeye's biscuit. Also, you can bet Rick Scott will pump copious amounts of money into turning out Republicans.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'm voting New Hampshire.

One voted for Trump by 3.4 points a 2.2% improvement for him over 2016, the other voted for Biden by 7.35 points, a 7 point improvement over 2016. Seems pretty clear which one is more likley to flip.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Obvious Florida is obvious.