I think saying "southern whites" would be simplistic, because Clinton's support increased in certain parts of the south. I'm hoping this thread might explain things like why Dole was unusually strong in Fresno County CA.
If anything, I think if Dole gained anywhere in the South it was due to turnout rather than people switching their votes
It looks like the biggest swings towards Dole were in western states.
Anyway, maybe some conservatives mad about Bush’s breaking his tax pledge, but thought Clinton went too left in his first couple years.
Also, I read somewhere that Dole did noticeably better with Jews than Bush Sr.
I think this is basically the correct answer, I get the impression the West was the only place where Dole actually gained any significant amount of Clinton voters. Well tbf he was from the Plains and was a far better fit for the Plains/ West than he was for the South or the Northeast. Also, some of those states like Montana are reflexively anti-incumbent as mentioned.
Why would Dole have done better with Jews than Bush?