CO 3: Internals show Salazar looks likely to win second term

[Sarnstrom]

Anzalone-Liszt Research, July 9-16, 575 likely voters, +/-4%

Salazar 56%
Tipton 26%

http://www.salazar2006.com/articles_details.asp?id=147
http://www.rollcall.com/issues/52_13/atr/14540-1.html

[Adlai Stevenson]

Good to see.  Colorado is definitely trending Democratic and this election cycle there shall be a few interesting races to watch there. 

[Sam Spade]

I am glad that you at least posted the links, but the caveat that this is an internal poll done by the Salazar campaign needs to be in the title.

[MasterJedi]

Good to see.  Colorado is definitely trending Democratic and this election cycle there shall be a few interesting races to watch there. 

It's trending Dem but it's not trending that fast.

Why does everyone say the Dems will win Colorado and Nevada in 2008? There's no evidence to show that they will but it keeps poping up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think with the Dems moving NV to the second primary will give Dems an advantage over the GOP in 2008. NV voted for Clinton twice. And the unions that voted for Bush are upset with him in NV.

[Sam Spade]

Thank you for changing the heading.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Good to see.  Colorado is definitely trending Democratic and this election cycle there shall be a few interesting races to watch there. 

It's trending Dem but it's not trending that fast.

Why does everyone say the Dems will win Colorado and Nevada in 2008? There's no evidence to show that they will but it keeps poping up.

I was actually talking about the Congressional elections this year.  I believe Marilyn Musgrave's District could be competetive, as well as the open race in CO-7 and possibly even Hefley's open seat.

[Sam Spade]

Good to see.  Colorado is definitely trending Democratic and this election cycle there shall be a few interesting races to watch there. 

It's trending Dem but it's not trending that fast.

Why does everyone say the Dems will win Colorado and Nevada in 2008? There's no evidence to show that they will but it keeps poping up.

I was actually talking about the Congressional elections this year.  I believe Marilyn Musgrave's District could be competetive, as well as the open race in CO-7 and possibly even Hefley's open seat.

Hefley's open seat: No, it's simply too Rep.

Musgrave's seat:  Right now, it's in the second tier, but it's certainly on the list.  So, possibly, but probably only if we see a major Dem wave.

CO-07:  Should be Lean Dem in a Dem-friendly year (that's where I have it).  However, it will be downgraded to Toss-up on my list if Peggy Lamm wins.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Why so if Peggy Lamm wins?  I heard that her name was really an advantage in the state.  I know Heffley's District is Republican (66% for Bush in 2004) but I think open races, particularly in years like these, can tend to be competetive.

[Sam Spade]

Why so if Peggy Lamm wins?  I heard that her name was really an advantage in the state. 

She's open to doing stupid things.  Earlier in the year, someone brought up that she had endorsed Bill Owens in the last Governor's election and she tried to run away from that, to no good effect..  She also screwed up questions earlier this year when Perlmutter brought up that she might have illegally voted because she didn't update her drivers' license.

Also, the primary is ugly and could get uglier before we're all done.

The Republican in this race is unopposed and is a decent candidate and is raising up a good amount of money.

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Not really. 

For example, in a year like 1994, the only seat to go R with a partisan index of D+10 or greater was Rostenkowski.  The next closest was around D+5. The rest were all below D+5.  The open CD with the greatest Dem percentage to fall was ME-01 @ D+4.77.

An R+16 flipping is simply not going to happen unless we get into an 1894 scenario, which is extremely unlikely.