For Fun, Predict the Balance of Power in the House and Senate for 2023-2049

[dw93]

House Majority:

2023-2031: Republican
2031-2039: Democratic
2039-2047: Republican
2047-2049: Democratic

Senate Majority:

2023-2025: Democratic
2025-2031: Republican
2031-2043: Democratic*
2043-2049: Republican

*= Tie broken by the VP from 2041-2043

[MATTROSE94]

House Majority:
2021-2023: Democratic
2023-2027: Republican (veto proof majority status for entire period)
2027-2029: Democratic
2029-2031: Republican (one seat majority)
2031-2039: Democratic
2039-2047: Republican
2047-2051: Democratic

Senate Majority:
2015-2033: Republican (supermajority status from 2025-2031)
2033-2039: Democratic (tie broken by VP for first few months until Washington DC is added as a state)
2039-2047: Republican
2047-2055: Democratic

[It’s so Joever]

House:
2021-2023 D
2023-2031 R
2031-2035 D
2035-2039 R
2039-2041 D
2041-2043 R
2043-2049 D

Senate:
2021-2033 R
2033-2039 D
2039-2043 R
2043-2049 D

Presidency:
2021-2029 D
2029-2033 R
2033-2041 D
2041-2049 R

Trifectas:
2029-2031 R
2033-2035 D
2041-2043 R

Each president post-2029 starts with a trifecta but loses it after two years.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Senate
If Loeffler Perdue lose
21-23- Democratic
23-35- GOP
35-41- Democratic
41-49- GOP
House
23-25- GOP
25-27- Democratic
27-31- GOP
31-39- Democratic
39-41- GOP
41-43- Democratic
43-47- GOP
47-49- Democratic

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

if Perdue Loeffler win

House
23-31- GOP
31-35- Dem
35-37- GOP
37-39 Dem
39-43 GOP
43-45 Dem
45-47 GOP
47-49 Dem
Senate
21-33- GOP
33-37- Dem
37-47- GOP
47-49- Dem

[100% pro-life no matter what]

House:
2023-2027: Republican
2027-2029: Democratic
2029-2031: Republican
2031-2035: Democratic
2035-2043: Republican
2043-2049: Democratic

Senate:
2015-2047: Republican
2047-2049: Democratic

White House:
2021-2025: Democratic
2025-2033: Republican
2033-2041: Democratic
2041-2049: Republican

Trifectas:
2025-2027: Republican
2029-2031: Republican
2041-2043: Republican
*Democratic trifecta elected in 2048 for first time in 40 years after flipping the Senate in 2046, after more than three decades of Republican control.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Flips
Scenario A
21- GA x2- Dems win senate
22- GA, NV, AZ, NH x4 R(G. Duncan, Random businessman, Yee, E. Edwards) , DC x 2 D- Republicans take back senate
24- WI, MT, OH, WV x4 R(Gallagher, Stapleton, A. Gonzalez and E. Jenkins)
26- MI, MN, NH x3 R, (Meijer, Stauber, Sununu)
27- VT(P. Scott)(Bernie dies)
28- GA(McBath)
30- TX(Escobar), MT(Morigeau) VT(Gray)
32- NM(Ronchetti)
34- FL, AZ, NC, WI, AK, NH, NV R-D
36- FL, UT R-D
38- PR 1-1 split, RI
40- -FL, WI D-R PR R-D
42- AZ, FL, DE, NV, MI, MN, PA, PR, MT, NM, RI, UT D-R
44- DE, OR R-D
46- SC, KS, UT, WI R-D PR D-R
48- HI D-R, UT, RI R-D

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... looking at the century so far

Senate
2001-02: Republican*->Democratic**
2003-06: Republican
2007-14: Democratic
2015-20: Republican
2021-22: Democratic*

*50/50 tie broken by VP
**Party switch in between elections

House
2001-06: Republican
2007-10: Democratic
2011-18: Republican
2019-22: Democratic

So far, Democrats actually have several more years of control in the Senate than in the House (because of holding on in 2010 and the Jeffords situation in 2001).  Going into 2022, I would put the Senate at Tilt R because it's the most Dem-favorable map and the House almost at Likely R because of redistricting. I'm also expecting a 2 term Republican president after Biden, which will allow Democrats to bounce back surprisingly quickly from the Class I apocalypse in 2024.

Senate
2023-26: Republican
2027-34: Democratic
2035-42: Republican
2043-44: Democratic
2045-46: Republican*
2047-50: Democratic

House

2023-30: Republican
2031-40: Democratic
2041-50: Republican

Basically, I have Democrats doing very well in the 2030 midterm and Republicans doing very well in the presidential election in 2040. 

[JoeInator]

House:
2021-2023: Democratic
2023-2025: Republican
2025-2027: Democratic
2027-2025: Republican
2035-2039: Democratic
2039-2041: Republican
2041-2047: Democratic
2047-2049: Republican

Senate
2021-2027: Democratic
2027-2035: Republican
2035-2043: Democratic
2043-2049: Republican

[Skill and Chance]

House:
2021-2023: Democratic
2023-2025: Republican
2025-2027: Democratic
2027-2025: Republican
2035-2039: Democratic
2039-2041: Republican
2041-2047: Democratic
2047-2049: Republican

Senate
2021-2027: Democratic
2027-2035: Republican
2035-2043: Democratic
2043-2049: Republican

That would be rather amazing accomplishment to hold the senate in the 2024 elections starting from a 50/50 split today. What do you think happens in 2022 and 24?

[JoeInator]

House:
2021-2023: Democratic
2023-2025: Republican
2025-2027: Democratic
2027-2025: Republican
2035-2039: Democratic
2039-2041: Republican
2041-2047: Democratic
2047-2049: Republican

Senate
2021-2027: Democratic
2027-2035: Republican
2035-2043: Democratic
2043-2049: Republican

That would be rather amazing accomplishment to hold the senate in the 2024 elections starting from a 50/50 split today. What do you think happens in 2022 and 24?

Great question!

2022: Democrats pick up PA and WI (52 D-48 R), similar to 2002 for the Republicans
2024: Republicans gain WV and MT while Sherrod Brown narrowly holds on in OH. Ted Cruz barely loses TX in what is seen as a massive political upset (51 D-49 R)

[Thank you for being a friend...]

American politics are very cyclical so I'm sure in the next 20 years, the House will swing back and forth.  The Senate has a Republican bias I think because of all those safe R states out West.

[MATTROSE94]

Hmmm... looking at the century so far

Senate
2001-02: Republican*->Democratic**
2003-06: Republican
2007-14: Democratic
2015-20: Republican
2021-22: Democratic*

*50/50 tie broken by VP
**Party switch in between elections

House
2001-06: Republican
2007-10: Democratic
2011-18: Republican
2019-22: Democratic

So far, Democrats actually have several more years of control in the Senate than in the House (because of holding on in 2010 and the Jeffords situation in 2001).  Going into 2022, I would put the Senate at Tilt R because it's the most Dem-favorable map and the House almost at Likely R because of redistricting. I'm also expecting a 2 term Republican president after Biden, which will allow Democrats to bounce back surprisingly quickly from the Class I apocalypse in 2024.

Senate
2023-26: Republican
2027-34: Democratic
2035-42: Republican
2043-44: Democratic
2045-46: Republican*
2047-50: Democratic

House

2023-30: Republican
2031-40: Democratic
2041-50: Republican

Basically, I have Democrats doing very well in the 2030 midterm and Republicans doing very well in the presidential election in 2040. 

While 2022 is a good map on paper for the Democrats, NRSC chair Rick Scott is working on recruiting strong Republican candidates who could win in Democratic states such as Chris Sununu, Phil Scott, Brian Sandoval, Larry Hogan, Adam Kinzinger, and J.R. Romano.