Conversation with a WOW voter

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think I've mentioned before that I have family in Wisconsin, and some of them live in the WOW counties.  Today I got a phone call from an elderly relative who lives in a nursing home there.  She's a lifelong Republican and has voted for them almost exclusively; one of the rare exceptions was Gary Johnson in 2016, since she didn't like Trump but wasn't about to vote for "that b*tch Hillary".  She thinks Scott Walker is the greatest governor in Wisconsin history, and would happily vote for Nixon again if he was still alive and eligible (I'm not kidding).

Today she was nearly in tears over the events of last Wednesday.  She mentioned for the first time that she voted for Biden ("a good man") in November.  She wants Trump gone now, as well as Ron Johnson, who she voted for in 2016 but "hasn't done a damn thing since he was elected."

One person, not a representative sample, etc.  But I thought it was interesting.

[mileslunn]

I think Democrats turning WOW counties blue will be key to holding state.  If rural Wisconsin starts voting like rural Illinois or rural Ohio, Democrats are toast in state without turning WOW counties blue.  They are maxed out in Milwaukee and Dane counties.  Washington County still very exurban so don't see it going blue anytime soon, but Dems should aim to get it to where Waukesha county is now.  Waukesha county is a stretch, but if starts voting like McHenry county, Illinois (Bush in 2004 got similar numbers there to what Trump did in Waukesha county) it would be doable.  Ozaukee County Democrats need to aim to flip outright. 

Rural areas are going right and I don't see Democrats winning back the rural areas they've lost.  They need to win traditional GOP suburbs to offset this.  In many ways swing in WOW counties was not unusual.  Pretty much everywhere in US with few exceptions, suburbs voted more Democrat than they normally do, even in the ones Trump held.  By contrast most rural areas voted more GOP than normally do with notable exceptions being those near college towns and those where tourism main industry; they swung left, all others swung right. 

[Scottholes 2.0]

I think Democrats turning WOW counties blue will be key to holding state.  If rural Wisconsin starts voting like rural Illinois or rural Ohio, Democrats are toast in state without turning WOW counties blue.  They are maxed out in Milwaukee and Dane counties.  Washington County still very exurban so don't see it going blue anytime soon, but Dems should aim to get it to where Waukesha county is now.  Waukesha county is a stretch, but if starts voting like McHenry county, Illinois (Bush in 2004 got similar numbers there to what Trump did in Waukesha county) it would be doable.  Ozaukee County Democrats need to aim to flip outright. 

Rural areas are going right and I don't see Democrats winning back the rural areas they've lost.  They need to win traditional GOP suburbs to offset this.  In many ways swing in WOW counties was not unusual.  Pretty much everywhere in US with few exceptions, suburbs voted more Democrat than they normally do, even in the ones Trump held.  By contrast most rural areas voted more GOP than normally do with notable exceptions being those near college towns and those where tourism main industry; they swung left, all others swung right. 

Dems aren't maxed out in Dane just yet. I can see it voting 80%+ D in the future.

[Pericles]

I think Democrats turning WOW counties blue will be key to holding state.  If rural Wisconsin starts voting like rural Illinois or rural Ohio, Democrats are toast in state without turning WOW counties blue.  They are maxed out in Milwaukee and Dane counties.  Washington County still very exurban so don't see it going blue anytime soon, but Dems should aim to get it to where Waukesha county is now.  Waukesha county is a stretch, but if starts voting like McHenry county, Illinois (Bush in 2004 got similar numbers there to what Trump did in Waukesha county) it would be doable.  Ozaukee County Democrats need to aim to flip outright. 

Rural areas are going right and I don't see Democrats winning back the rural areas they've lost.  They need to win traditional GOP suburbs to offset this.  In many ways swing in WOW counties was not unusual.  Pretty much everywhere in US with few exceptions, suburbs voted more Democrat than they normally do, even in the ones Trump held.  By contrast most rural areas voted more GOP than normally do with notable exceptions being those near college towns and those where tourism main industry; they swung left, all others swung right. 

Mathematically, does anyone know whether that adds up to a net gain or loss of votes for the Democrats?

[perpetual_cynic]

I think Democrats turning WOW counties blue will be key to holding state.  If rural Wisconsin starts voting like rural Illinois or rural Ohio, Democrats are toast in state without turning WOW counties blue.  They are maxed out in Milwaukee and Dane counties.  Washington County still very exurban so don't see it going blue anytime soon, but Dems should aim to get it to where Waukesha county is now.  Waukesha county is a stretch, but if starts voting like McHenry county, Illinois (Bush in 2004 got similar numbers there to what Trump did in Waukesha county) it would be doable.  Ozaukee County Democrats need to aim to flip outright. 

Rural areas are going right and I don't see Democrats winning back the rural areas they've lost.  They need to win traditional GOP suburbs to offset this.  In many ways swing in WOW counties was not unusual.  Pretty much everywhere in US with few exceptions, suburbs voted more Democrat than they normally do, even in the ones Trump held.  By contrast most rural areas voted more GOP than normally do with notable exceptions being those near college towns and those where tourism main industry; they swung left, all others swung right. 

Dems aren't maxed out in Dane just yet. I can see it voting 80%+ D in the future.

Democrats are not maxed out in Milwaukee County quite yet. They have much gains to make in the Southern Suburbs of Milwaukee.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I think Democrats turning WOW counties blue will be key to holding state.  If rural Wisconsin starts voting like rural Illinois or rural Ohio, Democrats are toast in state without turning WOW counties blue.  They are maxed out in Milwaukee and Dane counties.  Washington County still very exurban so don't see it going blue anytime soon, but Dems should aim to get it to where Waukesha county is now.  Waukesha county is a stretch, but if starts voting like McHenry county, Illinois (Bush in 2004 got similar numbers there to what Trump did in Waukesha county) it would be doable.  Ozaukee County Democrats need to aim to flip outright. 

Rural areas are going right and I don't see Democrats winning back the rural areas they've lost.  They need to win traditional GOP suburbs to offset this.  In many ways swing in WOW counties was not unusual.  Pretty much everywhere in US with few exceptions, suburbs voted more Democrat than they normally do, even in the ones Trump held.  By contrast most rural areas voted more GOP than normally do with notable exceptions being those near college towns and those where tourism main industry; they swung left, all others swung right. 

Even if Republicans manage to get Rural Iowa/Rural MN numbers in Rural WI, the state would be Lean/Likely R if there was no swing in MKE/Madison Metro areas.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I think Democrats turning WOW counties blue will be key to holding state.  If rural Wisconsin starts voting like rural Illinois or rural Ohio, Democrats are toast in state without turning WOW counties blue.  They are maxed out in Milwaukee and Dane counties.  Washington County still very exurban so don't see it going blue anytime soon, but Dems should aim to get it to where Waukesha county is now.  Waukesha county is a stretch, but if starts voting like McHenry county, Illinois (Bush in 2004 got similar numbers there to what Trump did in Waukesha county) it would be doable.  Ozaukee County Democrats need to aim to flip outright. 

Rural areas are going right and I don't see Democrats winning back the rural areas they've lost.  They need to win traditional GOP suburbs to offset this.  In many ways swing in WOW counties was not unusual.  Pretty much everywhere in US with few exceptions, suburbs voted more Democrat than they normally do, even in the ones Trump held.  By contrast most rural areas voted more GOP than normally do with notable exceptions being those near college towns and those where tourism main industry; they swung left, all others swung right. 

Dems aren't maxed out in Dane just yet. I can see it voting 80%+ D in the future.

I  agree. The parts of Dane that are not the inner city of Madison will get bluer, along with the WOW and Suburban MKE County, and parts of the BOW.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I think Democrats turning WOW counties blue will be key to holding state.  If rural Wisconsin starts voting like rural Illinois or rural Ohio, Democrats are toast in state without turning WOW counties blue.  They are maxed out in Milwaukee and Dane counties.  Washington County still very exurban so don't see it going blue anytime soon, but Dems should aim to get it to where Waukesha county is now.  Waukesha county is a stretch, but if starts voting like McHenry county, Illinois (Bush in 2004 got similar numbers there to what Trump did in Waukesha county) it would be doable.  Ozaukee County Democrats need to aim to flip outright.  

Rural areas are going right and I don't see Democrats winning back the rural areas they've lost.  They need to win traditional GOP suburbs to offset this.  In many ways swing in WOW counties was not unusual.  Pretty much everywhere in US with few exceptions, suburbs voted more Democrat than they normally do, even in the ones Trump held.  By contrast most rural areas voted more GOP than normally do with notable exceptions being those near college towns and those where tourism main industry; they swung left, all others swung right.  

Dems aren't maxed out in Dane just yet. I can see it voting 80%+ D in the future.

Correct, continued population growth would guarantee this since the Madison area attracts almost exclusively liberal professionals.

[Alcibiades]

I think Democrats turning WOW counties blue will be key to holding state.  If rural Wisconsin starts voting like rural Illinois or rural Ohio, Democrats are toast in state without turning WOW counties blue.  They are maxed out in Milwaukee and Dane counties.  Washington County still very exurban so don't see it going blue anytime soon, but Dems should aim to get it to where Waukesha county is now.  Waukesha county is a stretch, but if starts voting like McHenry county, Illinois (Bush in 2004 got similar numbers there to what Trump did in Waukesha county) it would be doable.  Ozaukee County Democrats need to aim to flip outright. 

Rural areas are going right and I don't see Democrats winning back the rural areas they've lost.  They need to win traditional GOP suburbs to offset this.  In many ways swing in WOW counties was not unusual.  Pretty much everywhere in US with few exceptions, suburbs voted more Democrat than they normally do, even in the ones Trump held.  By contrast most rural areas voted more GOP than normally do with notable exceptions being those near college towns and those where tourism main industry; they swung left, all others swung right. 

Dems aren't maxed out in Dane just yet. I can see it voting 80%+ D in the future.

And its population is growing at a good clip, so even if Dems don’t improve their percentages further (which I think they probably will continue to do), the raw margins will still increase.

[walleye26]

Also, I have to state this again: there are certain places up north Republicans have hit their ceiling. Rural areas like Sawyer, Vilas, and Oneida Counties all trended bluer because either increased Tribal votes and more retired Chicago/MKE liberals. Seriously, Sawyer shifted several points leftward, as did Oneida. Vilas went 3 points left, likely due to reservation turnout increase. The fact is, there are enough liberal expats and tribal voters up north at the Dems can’t get much lower.

There are old WWC counties that do have room to fall, such as Price, Rusk, Langlade, etc, but these places are depopulating quickly and will continue to do so.

I expect Dems to be able to make inroads in the MKE suburbs of Greenfield, Greendale, and Franklin. Ozaukee County should continue their trends as well.