Political futures of the 10 GOP impeachers

[Tekken_Guy]

What are the political futures of the 10 GOP congresspeople who chose to impeach President Trump?

-Adam Kinzinger
-Anthony Gonzalez
-Dan Newhouse
-David Valadao
-Fred Upton
-Jaime Herrera Beutler
-John Katko
-Liz Cheney
-Peter Meijer
-Tom Rice

[DrScholl]

Kinzinger might get drawn out and merged with Illinois losing a seat. Democrats will certainly eliminate a Republican seat.

Gonzalez could get primaried out considering how heavily right leaning his seat is.

Newhouse is safe because of the jungle primary format. Should another Republican make the top two he could get Democrats to support him if the other Republican was really insane.

Valadao is probably safe to make the top two but it wouldn't surprise me if some random right-winger from Bakersfield got in the race.

Upton could get a primary challenge. There are a lot of Trump friendly areas in the outlying areas of that district.

Beutler might have some trouble against a Trumpist in places like Cowlitz, but I'm not sure it's enough to push her out the top two.

Katko probably did himself a favor voting for impeachment. I think he could fend off a primary
challenge narrowly at worst.

Cheney could be in real trouble in the primary.

Not sure about Meijer.

Rice is probably in trouble in the primary.

[Tekken_Guy]

Kinzinger might get drawn out and merged with Illinois losing a seat. Democrats will certainly eliminate a Republican seat.

Gonzalez could get primaried out considering how heavily right leaning his seat is.

Newhouse is safe because of the jungle primary format. Should another Republican make the top two he could get Democrats to support him if the other Republican was really insane.

Valadao is probably safe to make the top two but it wouldn't surprise me if some random right-winger from Bakersfield got in the race.

Upton could get a primary challenge. There are a lot of Trump friendly areas in the outlying areas of that district.

Beutler might have some trouble against a Trumpist in places like Cowlitz, but I'm not sure it's enough to push her out the top two.

Katko probably did himself a favor voting for impeachment. I think he could fend off a primary
challenge narrowly at worst.

Cheney could be in real trouble in the primary.

Not sure about Meijer.

Rice is probably in trouble in the primary.

I feel like Kinzinger will run in a suburban seat if one exists. A rural one like his current one would be a heavy lift.

Gonzalez I feel will be fine if his 2022 seat is heavily suburban.

Upton and Rice seem headed for retirement.

Cheney is a household name in Wyoming and she doesn’t seem in too much trouble.

[Pericles]

Huh I thought Gonzalez was the new TX-23 rep lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs went for Impeachment in case they take control in 2022thats why they did it

They want to give a clear signal that should they take the House in 2022, that they aren't the Trump party

[Coldstream]

Kinzinger might get drawn out and merged with Illinois losing a seat. Democrats will certainly eliminate a Republican seat.

Gonzalez could get primaried out considering how heavily right leaning his seat is.

Newhouse is safe because of the jungle primary format. Should another Republican make the top two he could get Democrats to support him if the other Republican was really insane.

Valadao is probably safe to make the top two but it wouldn't surprise me if some random right-winger from Bakersfield got in the race.

Upton could get a primary challenge. There are a lot of Trump friendly areas in the outlying areas of that district.

Beutler might have some trouble against a Trumpist in places like Cowlitz, but I'm not sure it's enough to push her out the top two.

Katko probably did himself a favor voting for impeachment. I think he could fend off a primary
challenge narrowly at worst.

Cheney could be in real trouble in the primary.

Not sure about Meijer.

Rice is probably in trouble in the primary.

I feel like Kinzinger will run in a suburban seat if one exists. A rural one like his current one would be a heavy lift.

Gonzalez I feel will be fine if his 2022 seat is heavily suburban.

Upton and Rice seem headed for retirement.

Cheney is a household name in Wyoming and she doesn’t seem in too much trouble.

I remember Cheney leading in Senate polls over Lummis, so that suggests to me that she has a fair amount of support in Wyoming? Obviously hypothetical polls aren’t particularly valuable etc

[Orwell]

Upton seems pretty much for sure headed out the door, an underrated pickup opportunity come 2022 if only we had current maps. The district is based around Kalamazoo which is getting increasingly blue, while there are counties like Allegan, St. Joseph, Van Buren, Cass, and Berrien as well. Those last 5 are heavily GOP, so the path for a Dem victory is a big enough margin in Kalamazoo to overpower the other counties which are primarily exurban or rural and heavily Republican. Upton had a primary challenge in 2020 that did surprisingly well, even though I didn't hear about it until a few days before the primary and she got almost 40%. Her website is really something. I think he is done for.

Potential candidates include Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo), Jon Hoadley (D-Kalamazoo), Jon Proos (R-St. Joseph), and probably some random local GOP officials.

https://www.elenaoelkeforcongress.com/

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Huh I thought Gonzalez was the new TX-23 rep lol.

That would be Tony Gonzalez

[Del Tachi]

Huh I thought Gonzalez was the new TX-23 rep lol.

That would be Tony Gonzalez

So there are two Tony Gonzalezes, hmm

[Sir Mohamed]

Liz Cheney: VP of George P. Bush

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Huh I thought Gonzalez was the new TX-23 rep lol.

That would be Tony Gonzalez

So there are two Tony Gonzalezes, hmm

Yup, one Mexican, the new one, and one Cuban, the Impeacher.

[PAK Man]

Kinzinger is probably running for higher office (most likely governor) so I don't think he'll be in Congress for much longer.

Valadao is fine no matter what happens.

Upton is most likely retiring, plus he's accumulated so much seniority I doubt he's in danger in a primary even if he goes for reelection.

Katko will be fine. He's the only Republican that can win in that district, although redistricting could prove to be a challenge, so we'll have to wait and see on him.

Cheney is probably gone from House leadership, but her family name will probably save her in Wyoming. Hard to say how it'll impact her chances at higher office.

Rice is probably losing his next primary.

Meijer is too new/unknown for it to impact his career. I think he'll be fine. Plus this was Amash's old district so perhaps voters wouldn't punish him as harshly as others might.

I think Gonzalez's future depends a lot on how involved Renacci gets in the race. Gonzalez is a pretty low-key member of Congress. I think what'll impact him is if he goes for higher office. He's the type that would do well in a general election, but a primary is another story.

Newhouse and Beutler should be fine.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Newhouse and Herrera-Beutler should be fine.

WA-3 (Vancouver/SW WA) and WA-4 (Yakima + Tri-Cities) are Safe R, but not especially Trumpy.

Valadao, Newhouse, and JHB are unlikely to be primaried because of the Top Two system. Newhouse especially has been "primaried" in the sense of losing most Republican voters twice (in 2014 and 2016), and keeps winning because of his ability to attract crossover Democratic support. Valadao has a brand that's extremely divorced from the national Republican one. JHB might have to watch her back, though.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Newhouse and Herrera-Beutler should be fine.

WA-3 (Vancouver/SW WA) and WA-4 (Yakima + Tri-Cities) are Safe R, but not especially Trumpy.

Cowlitz and Pacific Counties in WA-3 may beg to differ, and there could maybe be a regionalized primary in the district where JHB would rely on Clark and Lewis to stay afloat.

[Roll Roons]

I'm not convinced impeachment will even be relevant by the time 2022 primaries roll around. Trump will no longer be president, and his influence will be much more limited without Twitter.

[Vosem]

What are the political futures of the 10 GOP congresspeople who chose to impeach President Trump?

-Adam Kinzinger
-Anthony Gonzalez
-Dan Newhouse
-David Valadao
-Fred Upton
-Jaime Herrera Beutler
-John Katko
-Liz Cheney
-Peter Meijer
-Tom Rice

Tom Rice is in a hyper-Trumpy seat and is probably doomed in a primary. Perhaps this is his way of signaling retirement.

Upton has had some close shaves against no-names in primaries recently and has been considering retirement for the past half-decade. I think he bows out.

Kinzinger has been extensively rumored to seek higher office in 2022 (either Governor of Illinois or U.S. Senate). I think he'll struggle in a statewide primary, but most likely he'll leave office to go do that.

Cheney, Meijer, and Gonzalez probably all receive primary challenges to some degree, but none of them are in super Trumpy places and all of them have ridiculous fundraising chops, so I would bet on them being fine.

Valadao, Newhouse, and JHB are unlikely to be primaried because of the Top Two system. Newhouse especially has been "primaried" in the sense of losing most Republican voters twice (in 2014 and 2016), and keeps winning because of his ability to attract crossover Democratic support. Valadao has a brand that's extremely divorced from the national Republican one. JHB might have to watch her back, though.

Katko will probably get a very unhospitable seat in the next redistricting anyway, so I'm not sure he matters.

[Figueira]

Huh I thought Gonzalez was the new TX-23 rep lol.

That would be Tony Gonzalez

So there are two Tony Gonzalezes, hmm

The Ohioan is Anthony Gonzalez; the Texan is Tony Gonzales.

Anyway, I don't see why it's that unlikely for Valadao to lose his spot in the Top 2 because of this? And it's not like he's safe against a Democrat either, assuming his district stays roughly the same.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Peter Meijer is one I wonder about. Justin Amash just got run out of the party in that exact same district for supporting the first Trump impeachment.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Rs went for Impeachment in case they take control in 2022thats why they did it

They want to give a clear signal that should they take the House in 2022, that they aren't the Trump party

Ten Republicans voting for impeachment suddenly means that the party is headed in an entirely different direction?

[MillennialModerate]

Why didn’t Cheney run for Senate?

That would’ve been a lifetime appointment

[MillennialModerate]

Huh I thought Gonzalez was the new TX-23 rep lol.

That would be Tony Gonzalez

So there are two Tony Gonzalezes, hmm

The Ohioan is Anthony Gonzalez; the Texan is Tony Gonzales.

from THE Ohio State University