Did the scandal hurt Cunningham or was he never ahead in the first place?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I really don't think he would have won. There are very, very few examples of downballot Democrats overperforming Biden this year and I don't see why NC would have bucked that trend for Cal Cunningham of all people. I'm inclined to think the polls were always just a few points off, just like they were nationwide.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Atlas is being delusional. He would have lost regardless

I don't think we are. Polls showed Cunningham outperforming Biden, and since Biden only barely lost the state, I think Cal would've pulled it off. Plus, Tillis has always been a weak politician.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Atlas is being delusional. He would have lost regardless

I don't think we are. Polls showed Cunningham outperforming Biden, and since Biden only barely lost the state, I think Cal would've pulled it off. Plus, Tillis has always been a weak politician.

Polls showed him winning by a larger margin than Biden, but often at a lower % of the vote; there were far more "undecides" in the NC-Sen race, most of whom were prolly closet partisans

[VAR]

It cost him the race. I will die on this hill.

Why are you so confident in that? It may be true, but Biden still lost NC, and Cunningham's position in polls never changed much (though tbf NC-Sen polls were all over the place). Also, what kind of voter would switch their vote/not vote because of an affair someone had? And if they do exists, are there at least 100k of them in the NC-Sen electorate. Honestly, you could make a stronger case RGB's death hurt Cunningham, but even that I don't think had a huge impact.

Cunningham's favorability rating crashed following the scandal, which might've resulted in undecideds moving toward Tillis in the final weeks. People should keep in mind that NC-SEN polls had way more undecideds than NC-PRES polls. Also, it should be noted that most of those suburban ticket-splitters voted for third party candidates, not Tillis (You can see this by comparing Trump's % with Tillis' % in Mecklenberg/Wake/Durham counties).

If even hardcore male Democrats on Talk Elections Dot Org condemned Cunningham's actions, what makes you think ancestrally GOP suburban women in Mecklenburg County weren't disgusted by Cunningham's sexting enough to vote third party?

[Gracile]

It had a mild effect in causing some persuadable voters to vote third-party/abstaining. However, I don't think Cunningham would have been guaranteed to win without the scandal (I would expect it to be decided within fractions of a percent either way) just by virtue of how challenging North Carolina is for Democrats at the federal level.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It cost him the race. I will die on this hill.

Why are you so confident in that? It may be true, but Biden still lost NC, and Cunningham's position in polls never changed much (though tbf NC-Sen polls were all over the place). Also, what kind of voter would switch their vote/not vote because of an affair someone had? And if they do exists, are there at least 100k of them in the NC-Sen electorate. Honestly, you could make a stronger case RGB's death hurt Cunningham, but even that I don't think had a huge impact.

Cunningham's favorability rating crashed following the scandal, which might've resulted in undecideds moving toward Tillis in the final weeks. People should keep in mind that NC-SEN polls had way more undecideds than NC-PRES polls. Also, it should be noted that most of those suburban ticket-splitters voted for third party candidates, not Tillis (You can see this by comparing Trump's % with Tillis' % in Mecklenberg/Wake/Durham counties).

If even hardcore male Democrats on Talk Elections Dot Org condemned Cunningham's actions, what makes you think ancestrally GOP suburban women in Mecklenburg County weren't disgusted by Cunningham's sexting enough to vote third party?

Generally, there are always more undecided in Senate polls, and they tend to break in a way that converges with the Presidential results regardless. There was a general undercount in the 2-party Senate race vote, but some of that came from Tillis too. The 3rd party vote was pretty consistent throughout the state too; it wasn’t just Democratic counties, infact, most of the counties where Shannon Bray got the highest vote share were deep red, so you could argue those were votes that would’ve gone to Tillis. Also; why would Cunningham have matched Biden’s performance as a pretty generic D when most generic Ds underperformed Biden downballot? It’s impossible to say, but to me, it seems like Cunningham still would’ve lost by 30k votes. Its impossible to say with confidence though.

[VAR]

It cost him the race. I will die on this hill.

Why are you so confident in that? It may be true, but Biden still lost NC, and Cunningham's position in polls never changed much (though tbf NC-Sen polls were all over the place). Also, what kind of voter would switch their vote/not vote because of an affair someone had? And if they do exists, are there at least 100k of them in the NC-Sen electorate. Honestly, you could make a stronger case RGB's death hurt Cunningham, but even that I don't think had a huge impact.

Cunningham's favorability rating crashed following the scandal, which might've resulted in undecideds moving toward Tillis in the final weeks. People should keep in mind that NC-SEN polls had way more undecideds than NC-PRES polls. Also, it should be noted that most of those suburban ticket-splitters voted for third party candidates, not Tillis (You can see this by comparing Trump's % with Tillis' % in Mecklenberg/Wake/Durham counties).

If even hardcore male Democrats on Talk Elections Dot Org condemned Cunningham's actions, what makes you think ancestrally GOP suburban women in Mecklenburg County weren't disgusted by Cunningham's sexting enough to vote third party?

Generally, there are always more undecided in Senate polls, and they tend to break in a way that converges with the Presidential results regardless. There was a general undercount in the 2-party Senate race vote, but some of that came from Tillis too. The 3rd party vote was pretty consistent throughout the state too; it wasn’t just Democratic counties, infact, most of the counties where Shannon Bray got the highest vote share were deep red, so you could argue those were votes that would’ve gone to Tillis. Also; why would Cunningham have matched Biden’s performance as a pretty generic D when most generic Ds underperformed Biden downballot? It’s impossible to say, but to me, it seems like Cunningham still would’ve lost by 30k votes. Its impossible to say with confidence though.

Cunningham himself underperformed Generic Ds in NC. As I said on the previous page, Cunningham would've won if he won Mecklenburg/Wake/Durham by as much as the Democratic candidate for Commissioner of Labor (pretty much a Generic D) did.

[Pericles]

I really don't think he would have won. There are very, very few examples of downballot Democrats overperforming Biden this year and I don't see why NC would have bucked that trend for Cal Cunningham of all people. I'm inclined to think the polls were always just a few points off, just like they were nationwide.

It's not that rare, it just wasn't in important races. In the House there are a few  Trump-Dem districts. In the Senate, AZ is a clear example, and IA actually is one too (if Cunningham overperformed by as much as Greenfield, he'd have barely won).

[ShadowRocket]

I'm in the camp that he would've won. Cooper was still able to win reelection despite Biden losing the state, plus Tillis underperformed Trump.

I echo the sentiment that this really was a case of a winnable race being thrown away due to the candidate's digressions.

[Pollster]

Didn't he receive the least raw votes of any statewide Dem on the ticket? Clearly there was a number of voters who refused to vote for him for one reason or another.

Tillis had the same problem, so assuming Cunningham is able to come closer to Biden's vote total without the scandal, I think there's a good reason to believe he'd win.

[Astatine]

Didn't he receive the least raw votes of any statewide Dem on the ticket? Clearly there was a number of voters who refused to vote for him for one reason or another.

Tillis had the same problem, so assuming Cunningham is able to come closer to Biden's vote total without the scandal, I think there's a good reason to believe he'd win.

Cooper (Governor) 2,834,790
Marshall (SoS) 2,755,571
Wood (Auditor) 2,730,175
Stein (AG) 2,713,400
Biden (President) 2,684,292
Holmes (Labor Commissioner) 2,637,528
Lewis Holley (Lt. Gov.) 2,623,458
Mangrum (Superintendent of P. Ins.) 2,605,169
Goodwin (Insurance Commissioner) 2,586,464
Cunningham (Senate) 2,569,965
Chatterji (Treasurer) 2,537,019
Wadsworth (Ag Commissioner) 2,485,722

Cunningham did not get the least raw votes, but his performance seems even more underwhelming when comparing it to the Dem nominees to other low profile row offices.