How do Republicans win Illinois?

[Suburbia]

Republicans have Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri.....

When will they win Illinois again?

Dubya campaigned hard in Illinois in 2000, he could have poached that from the Clinton column.

[TDAS04]

Expel Cook County from the state.

[Bootes Void]

Deal with the Chicago metro area and maybe you got a chance

[neostassenite31]

It requires a combination/chain of many large shifts, which is why it's almost certainly not going to happen.

Q1. But IL swung to the right this election
A1: It shifted by less than <0.1 point, similar to CA and NY. CA and NY aren't flipping anytime soon.

Q2: But the Chicago metro is shrinking in population
A2: Downstate IL is losing population at 3-4 times the rate of Chicagoland. Most collar counties of Cook actually have stagnant population growth with less than <1% change since 2010

Q3: But minorities are shifting toward Republicans
A3: Including Hispanics, at most around 35% of the IL electorate is non-white. To overcome a 17 point deficit, the GOP would need to swing minorities by 17 / 0.35 = about 49 percentage points to the right compared to 2020 to draw even statewide

Q4: But whites in IL will soon vote like their counterparts in IN and KY
A4: 38% of whites in IL have bachelor degrees. 25% of whites in KY and 27% of whites in IN have bachelor degrees. White evangelicals are 17% of the electorate in IL, 29% of the electorate in IN, and 44% of the electorate in KY

Q5: But the Chicago suburbs/collars will turn on the Democrats and vote like 2010/2014 again
A5: All IL counties excluding Cook in the Chicago MSA add up to about 30% of Illinois' total population. 17 / 0.3 = the collar counties would need to swing about 57 percentage points to the right for the GOP to draw even statewide

Q6: But minorities shift toward Republicans, whites vote like counterparts in IN and KY, Chicago metro shrinks in population, and Chicago suburbs turn on Democrats and vote like 2010 again
A6: The GOP would win IL in this perfect storm, but then again this is probably a 45+ state landslide

[Suburbia]

Expel Cook County from the state.

No, make inroads in Cook County, like Jim Edgar did in 1994 and George Ryan did in 1998

[Hope For A New Era]

“How do Democrats win Oklahoma?”

[Chips]

Do double as good in Chicagoland.

[dw93]

Depress the Democratic margins in Cook, narrowly win back, or only narrowly lose the collar counties, and run up the margins downstate.

[TML]

By winning the NPV by 1984-like margins.

[TheReckoning]

Replace the entire state’s population with people from Wyoming.

Until then, you have about as good of a chance at getting people in Illinois to vote Republican as you do getting them to root for the Packers.

[Former President tack50]

Make Chicago (or possibly all of Cook County) its own state; then Republicans could win in "rump Illinois"