Both parties were within a few points of a trifecta

[Motorcity]

If you swing 1 point to the Republicans, they would have won the White House AND the House.

If you swing 1 point to the Democrats, they would have flipped NC and outright won the senate. 2 point swing flips FL and wins them 51 seats on election night.

Was this the only election in recent memory where either party came close to winning a government trifecta?

 Maybe 2000? Had Democrats won the White House they would have also won the senate. But they were six seats short in the house. Were they any close house seats in 2000?

[Bootes Void]

Winning NC would only get 49 seats and you would need a shift of 2% not 1% to pull it off.

For the house I would say closer to a 2% shift may have been needed for a flip.

Also there was no Senate seat in Florida up this year

[Mr. Smith]

How far away were Dems in 2016 from The House exactly?

It wouldn't have taken too much to get Feingold, McGutless, and Kander over the line to flip The Senate.

[Motorcity]

Winning NC would only get 49 seats and you would need a shift of 2% not 1% to pull it off.

For the house I would say closer to a 2% shift may have been needed for a flip.

Also there was no Senate seat in Florida up this year

No, you only need half a swing to flip a state. Since Trump won 50.1 of NC and Biden won 48.7, a 1% swing means Biden wins 49.7 and Trump wins 49.1.

A 1% swing flips NC and the NC senate race. A 1.3% swing allows Ossaf to outright win in Georgia

A 2% swing flips FL. And makes Collins drop below the majority in Maine allowing rank choice voting from the green party to put Democrats on top. Hopefully

A 3% would have flipped Texas

[Motorcity]

How far away were Dems in 2016 from The House exactly?

It wouldn't have taken too much to get Feingold, McGutless, and Kander over the line to flip The Senate.

Democrats were never going to win the house in 2016. They didn't even contest dozens of house seats Hillary won

A 2% swing would have flipped WI, PA, and MI and gave Hillary the white house by winning MI, WI, PA, FL, NC, and AZ

[AGA]

Winning NC would only get 49 seats and you would need a shift of 2% not 1% to pull it off.

For the house I would say closer to a 2% shift may have been needed for a flip.

Also there was no Senate seat in Florida up this year

No, you only need half a swing to flip a state. Since Trump won 50.1 of NC and Biden won 48.7, a 1% swing means Biden wins 49.7 and Trump wins 49.1.

A 1% swing flips NC and the NC senate race. A 1.3% swing allows Ossaf to outright win in Georgia

A 2% swing flips FL. And makes Collins drop below the majority in Maine allowing rank choice voting from the green party to put Democrats on top. Hopefully

A 3% would have flipped Texas

For the second time, that's not how swings work. Swings are change in margin, not the vote percentage of the candidate.

[Motorcity]

Winning NC would only get 49 seats and you would need a shift of 2% not 1% to pull it off.

For the house I would say closer to a 2% shift may have been needed for a flip.

Also there was no Senate seat in Florida up this year

No, you only need half a swing to flip a state. Since Trump won 50.1 of NC and Biden won 48.7, a 1% swing means Biden wins 49.7 and Trump wins 49.1.

A 1% swing flips NC and the NC senate race. A 1.3% swing allows Ossaf to outright win in Georgia

A 2% swing flips FL. And makes Collins drop below the majority in Maine allowing rank choice voting from the green party to put Democrats on top. Hopefully

A 3% would have flipped Texas

For the second time, that's not how swings work. Swings are change in margin, not the vote percentage of the candidate.

No? Swings change the percentage

[AGA]

Winning NC would only get 49 seats and you would need a shift of 2% not 1% to pull it off.

For the house I would say closer to a 2% shift may have been needed for a flip.

Also there was no Senate seat in Florida up this year

No, you only need half a swing to flip a state. Since Trump won 50.1 of NC and Biden won 48.7, a 1% swing means Biden wins 49.7 and Trump wins 49.1.

A 1% swing flips NC and the NC senate race. A 1.3% swing allows Ossaf to outright win in Georgia

A 2% swing flips FL. And makes Collins drop below the majority in Maine allowing rank choice voting from the green party to put Democrats on top. Hopefully

A 3% would have flipped Texas

For the second time, that's not how swings work. Swings are change in margin, not the vote percentage of the candidate.

No? Swings change the percentage

They refer to a change in margin, so a 6-point swing would be needed to flip Texas.

[bagelman]

Winning NC would only get 49 seats and you would need a shift of 2% not 1% to pull it off.

For the house I would say closer to a 2% shift may have been needed for a flip.

Also there was no Senate seat in Florida up this year

No, you only need half a swing to flip a state. Since Trump won 50.1 of NC and Biden won 48.7, a 1% swing means Biden wins 49.7 and Trump wins 49.1.

A 1% swing flips NC and the NC senate race. A 1.3% swing allows Ossaf to outright win in Georgia

A 2% swing flips FL. And makes Collins drop below the majority in Maine allowing rank choice voting from the green party to put Democrats on top. Hopefully

A 3% would have flipped Texas

For the second time, that's not how swings work. Swings are change in margin, not the vote percentage of the candidate.

No? Swings change the percentage

51% A, 49% B. 51-49=2, so A wins by 2 points

3 point swing for A changes that 2 points to 5.

52.5% A, 47.5% B. 52.5-47.5=5, so A wins by 5 points.

Texas was 52.06% Trump, 46.48% Biden. 52.06-46.48=a 5.58 point margin. A 3 point swing isn't enough for Biden.

[Motorcity]

Winning NC would only get 49 seats and you would need a shift of 2% not 1% to pull it off.

For the house I would say closer to a 2% shift may have been needed for a flip.

Also there was no Senate seat in Florida up this year

No, you only need half a swing to flip a state. Since Trump won 50.1 of NC and Biden won 48.7, a 1% swing means Biden wins 49.7 and Trump wins 49.1.

A 1% swing flips NC and the NC senate race. A 1.3% swing allows Ossaf to outright win in Georgia

A 2% swing flips FL. And makes Collins drop below the majority in Maine allowing rank choice voting from the green party to put Democrats on top. Hopefully

A 3% would have flipped Texas

For the second time, that's not how swings work. Swings are change in margin, not the vote percentage of the candidate.

No? Swings change the percentage

51% A, 49% B. 51-49=2, so A wins by 2 points

3 point swing for A changes that 2 points to 5.

52.5% A, 47.5% B. 52.5-47.5=5, so A wins by 5 points.

Texas was 52.06% Trump, 46.48% Biden. 52.06-46.48=a 5.58 point margin. A 3 point swing isn't enough for Biden.

Jesus Christ

This thread wasn't a debate on the definition of a swing. You have yours, I have mine

The point of this thread was that both parties came close to a trifecta, a somewhat rare thing.

[Chips]

Shows how polarized the country really is.

[ultraviolet]

Winning NC would only get 49 seats and you would need a shift of 2% not 1% to pull it off.

For the house I would say closer to a 2% shift may have been needed for a flip.

Also there was no Senate seat in Florida up this year

No, you only need half a swing to flip a state. Since Trump won 50.1 of NC and Biden won 48.7, a 1% swing means Biden wins 49.7 and Trump wins 49.1.

A 1% swing flips NC and the NC senate race. A 1.3% swing allows Ossaf to outright win in Georgia

A 2% swing flips FL. And makes Collins drop below the majority in Maine allowing rank choice voting from the green party to put Democrats on top. Hopefully

A 3% would have flipped Texas

For the second time, that's not how swings work. Swings are change in margin, not the vote percentage of the candidate.

No? Swings change the percentage

51% A, 49% B. 51-49=2, so A wins by 2 points

3 point swing for A changes that 2 points to 5.

52.5% A, 47.5% B. 52.5-47.5=5, so A wins by 5 points.

Texas was 52.06% Trump, 46.48% Biden. 52.06-46.48=a 5.58 point margin. A 3 point swing isn't enough for Biden.

Jesus Christ

This thread wasn't a debate on the definition of a swing. You have yours, I have mine

The point of this thread was that both parties came close to a trifecta, a somewhat rare thing.

Yeah but if you’re going to continue to participate on this forum, shouldn’t you know the correct definition of a swing?

[Devils30]

The Dems are still in the game for a trifecta!

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

If you swing 1 point to the Republicans, they would have won the White House AND the House.

If you swing 1 point to the Democrats, they would have flipped NC and outright won the senate. 2 point swing flips FL and wins them 51 seats on election night.

Was this the only election in recent memory where either party came close to winning a government trifecta?

 Maybe 2000? Had Democrats won the White House they would have also won the senate. But they were six seats short in the house. Were they any close house seats in 2000?

No because Rowland (R) would have appointed Lieberman’s replacement in the Senate. Most of the close Senate races went to the Dems that year...not sure if any went R.

[Motorcity]

Winning NC would only get 49 seats and you would need a shift of 2% not 1% to pull it off.

For the house I would say closer to a 2% shift may have been needed for a flip.

Also there was no Senate seat in Florida up this year

No, you only need half a swing to flip a state. Since Trump won 50.1 of NC and Biden won 48.7, a 1% swing means Biden wins 49.7 and Trump wins 49.1.

A 1% swing flips NC and the NC senate race. A 1.3% swing allows Ossaf to outright win in Georgia

A 2% swing flips FL. And makes Collins drop below the majority in Maine allowing rank choice voting from the green party to put Democrats on top. Hopefully

A 3% would have flipped Texas

For the second time, that's not how swings work. Swings are change in margin, not the vote percentage of the candidate.

No? Swings change the percentage

51% A, 49% B. 51-49=2, so A wins by 2 points

3 point swing for A changes that 2 points to 5.

52.5% A, 47.5% B. 52.5-47.5=5, so A wins by 5 points.

Texas was 52.06% Trump, 46.48% Biden. 52.06-46.48=a 5.58 point margin. A 3 point swing isn't enough for Biden.

Jesus Christ

This thread wasn't a debate on the definition of a swing. You have yours, I have mine

The point of this thread was that both parties came close to a trifecta, a somewhat rare thing.

Yeah but if you’re going to continue to participate on this forum, shouldn’t you know the correct definition of a swing?

First of all, on other forums on the internet (like alternate history) my definition is also used

Second, are you suggest I can’t participate in this website without bowing down to your definition?

[UncleSam]

Winning NC would only get 49 seats and you would need a shift of 2% not 1% to pull it off.

For the house I would say closer to a 2% shift may have been needed for a flip.

Also there was no Senate seat in Florida up this year

No, you only need half a swing to flip a state. Since Trump won 50.1 of NC and Biden won 48.7, a 1% swing means Biden wins 49.7 and Trump wins 49.1.

A 1% swing flips NC and the NC senate race. A 1.3% swing allows Ossaf to outright win in Georgia

A 2% swing flips FL. And makes Collins drop below the majority in Maine allowing rank choice voting from the green party to put Democrats on top. Hopefully

A 3% would have flipped Texas

For the second time, that's not how swings work. Swings are change in margin, not the vote percentage of the candidate.

No? Swings change the percentage

51% A, 49% B. 51-49=2, so A wins by 2 points

3 point swing for A changes that 2 points to 5.

52.5% A, 47.5% B. 52.5-47.5=5, so A wins by 5 points.

Texas was 52.06% Trump, 46.48% Biden. 52.06-46.48=a 5.58 point margin. A 3 point swing isn't enough for Biden.

Jesus Christ

This thread wasn't a debate on the definition of a swing. You have yours, I have mine

The point of this thread was that both parties came close to a trifecta, a somewhat rare thing.

Yeah but if you’re going to continue to participate on this forum, shouldn’t you know the correct definition of a swing?

First of all, on other forums on the internet (like alternate history) my definition is also used

Second, are you suggest I can’t participate in this website without bowing down to your definition?

My opinion is that it is more confusing to halve all swings in the method that you’re describing, it’s kind of like trying to use PVI to gauge a district - it’s just confusing because D+10 really means Ds win by 20, not by 10, in an average year. It’s simpler to just point to the change in margin, and that’s how most on Atlas use the word ‘swing’ when referring to political results. It’s silly to insist on using a word that you know has a different definition on this website, even if it has such a definition on others.

Anyway I’d say that the results are indicative of a very closely divided and polarized country. The house elects all members in a presidential year so id expect fewer and fewer house / presidential splits in the future, and given that there have been almost no senate / presidential splits (ME thus far is the only one in 2020 and in 2016 there were none) it wouldn’t be surprising if the presidential winner of a close election almost always resulted in narrow congressional majorities in the future.

[ultraviolet]

Winning NC would only get 49 seats and you would need a shift of 2% not 1% to pull it off.

For the house I would say closer to a 2% shift may have been needed for a flip.

Also there was no Senate seat in Florida up this year

No, you only need half a swing to flip a state. Since Trump won 50.1 of NC and Biden won 48.7, a 1% swing means Biden wins 49.7 and Trump wins 49.1.

A 1% swing flips NC and the NC senate race. A 1.3% swing allows Ossaf to outright win in Georgia

A 2% swing flips FL. And makes Collins drop below the majority in Maine allowing rank choice voting from the green party to put Democrats on top. Hopefully

A 3% would have flipped Texas

For the second time, that's not how swings work. Swings are change in margin, not the vote percentage of the candidate.

No? Swings change the percentage

51% A, 49% B. 51-49=2, so A wins by 2 points

3 point swing for A changes that 2 points to 5.

52.5% A, 47.5% B. 52.5-47.5=5, so A wins by 5 points.

Texas was 52.06% Trump, 46.48% Biden. 52.06-46.48=a 5.58 point margin. A 3 point swing isn't enough for Biden.

Jesus Christ

This thread wasn't a debate on the definition of a swing. You have yours, I have mine
The point of this thread was that both parties came close to a trifecta, a somewhat rare thing.

Yeah but if you’re going to continue to participate on this forum, shouldn’t you know the correct definition of a swing?

First of all, on other forums on the internet (like alternate history) my definition is also used

Second, are you suggest I can’t participate in this website without bowing down to your definition?

It’s easier just to use one definition

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are gonna win trifecta on Jan 5th

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

OP: Isn't it interesting how a relatively small swing could have resulted in a radically different composition of the United States government?

Replies: Yeah yeah whatever, let's have a semantic debate over the word 'swing'

[Motorcity]

OP: Isn't it interesting how a relatively small swing could have resulted in a radically different composition of the United States government?

Replies: Yeah yeah whatever, let's have a semantic debate over the word 'swing'

Thank you! I dont know what the problem is with these people. They completely ignored my topic for something trivial. Shame on them

[Wiz in Wis]

If you swing 1 point to the Republicans, they would have won the White House AND the House.

If you swing 1 point to the Democrats, they would have flipped NC and outright won the senate. 2 point swing flips FL and wins them 51 seats on election night.

Was this the only election in recent memory where either party came close to winning a government trifecta?

 Maybe 2000? Had Democrats won the White House they would have also won the senate. But they were six seats short in the house. Were they any close house seats in 2000?

No because Rowland (R) would have appointed Lieberman’s replacement in the Senate. Most of the close Senate races went to the Dems that year...not sure if any went R.

Virginia & Montana would have been close, both were less than 5% wins for GOP.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

If you swing 1 point to the Republicans, they would have won the White House AND the House.

If you swing 1 point to the Democrats, they would have flipped NC and outright won the senate. 2 point swing flips FL and wins them 51 seats on election night.

Was this the only election in recent memory where either party came close to winning a government trifecta?

 Maybe 2000? Had Democrats won the White House they would have also won the senate. But they were six seats short in the house. Were they any close house seats in 2000?

No because Rowland (R) would have appointed Lieberman’s replacement in the Senate. Most of the close Senate races went to the Dems that year...not sure if any went R.

Virginia & Montana would have been close, both were less than 5% wins for GOP.

Ok, but Dems won...

WA by less than 1%
MI by less than 2%
MO and NE by less than 3%
NJ by less than 4%
FL by less than 5%

Give the four closest races to the Republicans and they just break even instead of being forced into 50-50 (if Bush wins) or 51-49 (Gore wins).