1968 After 8 years of Kennedy

[SirRosetti]

Suppose if JFK wasn't assassinated in 1963 and won in 1964 against Barry Goldwater. How would this affect the events going into 1968 and of course who would win?

[dw93]

I think it would be either a narrow Republican win (Rockefeller or Romney) or a narrow Democratic win (LBJ, maybe Humphrey or Muskie). I don't see 68 being that different from our timeline.

[Alben Barkley]

I think that would depend a lot on exactly what JFK did during his second term and how popular it was. Does he escalate Vietnam? Does he draw back? Neither? Are there still a lot of protests and riots and social upheaval? If so, how does he handle it? Does he pass Civil Rights and anti-poverty legislation like Johnson did? Did he have a supermajority in Congress to help achieve that? And so on and so forth.

That all said, if he was as unpopular in 1968 as LBJ was, the outcome would probably be pretty similar: Nixon or some other GOP party elder wins on the promise of restoring "law and order." If he was more popular, perhaps the GOP reacts to Goldwater's thrashing by instead nominating a moderate like Rockefeller. The latter scenario is more interesting to me, and I think would have resulted in a very different America and we'd probably all be better off for it. Namely because it butterflies Watergate away and all the cynical distrust in government that came out of that. And if Rockefeller's wing of the GOP takes over, the radicalization of the GOP started by Reagan might be avoided.

Oh, and I think the GOP is favored to win regardless, just because that's typical after two terms of one party (same way JFK beat Nixon in the first place). Although if JFK manages to be a truly great president who avoids all of LBJ's missteps in reality, and remains highly popular in 1968, maybe LBJ or Humphrey or some other Democrat has a shot. After all, Humphrey's loss in 1968 was rather narrow despite LBJ's unpopularity. It may come down to whether Wallace and the Dixiecrats are still a factor in this scenario.

[dw93]

I think that would depend a lot on exactly what JFK did during his second term and how popular it was. Does he escalate Vietnam? Does he draw back? Neither? Are there still a lot of protests and riots and social upheaval? If so, how does he handle it? Does he pass Civil Rights and anti-poverty legislation like Johnson did? Did he have a supermajority in Congress to help achieve that? And so on and so forth.

That all said, if he was as unpopular in 1968 as LBJ was, the outcome would probably be pretty similar: Nixon or some other GOP party elder wins on the promise of restoring "law and order." If he was more popular, perhaps the GOP reacts to Goldwater's thrashing by instead nominating a moderate like Rockefeller. The latter scenario is more interesting to me, and I think would have resulted in a very different America and we'd probably all be better off for it. Namely because it butterflies Watergate away and all the cynical distrust in government that came out of that. And if Rockefeller's wing of the GOP takes over, the radicalization of the GOP started by Reagan might be avoided.

Oh, and I think the GOP is favored to win regardless, just because that's typical after two terms of one party (same way JFK beat Nixon in the first place). Although if JFK manages to be a truly great president who avoids all of LBJ's missteps in reality, and remains highly popular in 1968, maybe LBJ or Humphrey or some other Democrat has a shot. After all, Humphrey's loss in 1968 was rather narrow despite LBJ's unpopularity. It may come down to whether Wallace and the Dixiecrats are still a factor in this scenario.

I think the GOP would still turn rightward, but it would be more gradual and less religious without Reagan.

[frozenman]

I say Nixon still gets it.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Rockefeller is quoted as saying "The more I campaign, the more right wing the party becomes." Suffice to say, by 1968 the party despised him and he wouldn't win any nomination. Romney was damaged goods after his brainwashed comments (people forget that that sunk his original campaign) so Nixon is the likliest to be Nominated though a Reagan insurgency is likely. For the Democrats, Humphrey isn't getting the nom and Johnson would've been dumped for Sanford. Republicans barely win.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I think it would be either a narrow Republican win (Rockefeller or Romney) or a narrow Democratic win (LBJ, maybe Humphrey or Muskie). I don't see 68 being that different from our timeline.

LBJ knew the men in his family died fairly young...that's another reason he didn't run in '68 IRL. I don't think he would've ran.

[Chips]

I say Nixon still gets it.

This.