Will Marin County vote to the left of San Francisco in the foreseeable future?

[vileplume]

San Francisco has been consistently the most Democratic County in California for presidential elections starting in 1980, however it appears it may be facing some serious competition for this title from Marin County. The margin between the two fell to just 6.0% in 2020 (down from 13.5% in 2016 and 19.2% in 2012) with Biden winning San Francisco by 72.5% and Marin County by 66.5%. This year Marin also clearly passed Alameda to become California's second-most-Democratic county.

Obviously it depends what path the GOP goes down in the next few years, but if they carry on down a Trumpian path (building with non-college minorities whilst continuing to alienate white, college educated, wealthy, social liberals) which I think is more likely than not, I reckon there's a distinct possibility it might happen relatively soon.

[SingingAnalyst]

Possibly by 2028. I think SF and Marin could be within a point of each other in 2024.

[clever but short]

That would be surreal, but I can't argue with your logic, especially since it was closer to happening this year than I realized. So I would say it's definitely possible, even likely if 2020 trends continue even moderately.

[Chips]

No.

[SingingAnalyst]

Perhaps not, but Washtenaw, MI voting to the left of Wayne didn't appear likely after the 2012 election, either.