White Vote by state 2020

[Idaho Conservative]

So this what I came up with using the current results in each state.  Biden narrowly won the white vote in MN, IL, and DE.  Trump narrowly won the white vote in NM, NJ, and NE-2.  I'm pretty confident in this except there's a possibility Biden won the white vote in NJ and/or NE-2 and a slim possibility Trump won white voters in IL. 

[Alcibiades]

According to Reagante’s map (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392676.msg7573685#msg7573685), if your map is correct, this would mean Biden flipped the white vote from 2016 in CO, MN, IL, MD, DE, NY, CT and NH (all of which I think are plausible). If Biden has indeed won the white vote in Maryland, he is the first Democrat to do so since LBJ in his 1964 landslide.

[Idaho Conservative]

According to Reagante’s map (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392676.msg7573685#msg7573685), if your map is correct, this would mean Biden flipped the white vote from 2016 in CO, MN, IL, MD, DE, NY, CT and NH (all of which I think are plausible). If Biden has indeed won the white vote in Maryland, he is the first Democrat to do so since LBJ in his 1964 landslide.

According to my calculation, MD wasn't even particularly close, though idk if Trump gained with minorities there as much as nationwide.  Exit polls might overestimate Trump's gains with certain groups too.  I tried to account for that.  IL is the iffy one for me, since it actually swung right.  Even though most agree that shift is mainly from minorities in Chicago voting slightly less Dem than usual, I do find it a little odd that Trump could lose the white vote there and still gain overall.

[Samof94]

According to Reagante’s map (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392676.msg7573685#msg7573685), if your map is correct, this would mean Biden flipped the white vote from 2016 in CO, MN, IL, MD, DE, NY, CT and NH (all of which I think are plausible). If Biden has indeed won the white vote in Maryland, he is the first Democrat to do so since LBJ in his 1964 landslide.

White voters in non Southern states that are ultra-blue often do lean Democratic.

[Idaho Conservative]

According to Reagante’s map (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392676.msg7573685#msg7573685), if your map is correct, this would mean Biden flipped the white vote from 2016 in CO, MN, IL, MD, DE, NY, CT and NH (all of which I think are plausible). If Biden has indeed won the white vote in Maryland, he is the first Democrat to do so since LBJ in his 1964 landslide.

White voters in non Southern states that are ultra-blue often do lean Democratic.

usually the white vote is pretty close in those states.  Obama won the white vote in all but 1 in 08 then Trump in 16 won the white vote in all but 2.

[Calthrina950]

This map seems accurate for the most part, although I think Trump won the white vote in Illinois.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I'm iffy on Illinois as well, for the rest great map.

New Mexico and New Jersey kind of stick out like sore thumbs. I am also pretty sure they are the only two Democratic states with Republican-leaning non-Hispanic Whites where Black voters were not decisive.

[Samof94]

According to Reagante’s map (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392676.msg7573685#msg7573685), if your map is correct, this would mean Biden flipped the white vote from 2016 in CO, MN, IL, MD, DE, NY, CT and NH (all of which I think are plausible). If Biden has indeed won the white vote in Maryland, he is the first Democrat to do so since LBJ in his 1964 landslide.

White voters in non Southern states that are ultra-blue often do lean Democratic.

usually the white vote is pretty close in those states.  Obama won the white vote in all but 1 in 08 then Trump in 16 won the white vote in all but 2.

Indeed, whites tend to vote Republican as a whole. In Texas, Trump won the white vote by double digits.

[Idaho Conservative]

According to Reagante’s map (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392676.msg7573685#msg7573685), if your map is correct, this would mean Biden flipped the white vote from 2016 in CO, MN, IL, MD, DE, NY, CT and NH (all of which I think are plausible). If Biden has indeed won the white vote in Maryland, he is the first Democrat to do so since LBJ in his 1964 landslide.

White voters in non Southern states that are ultra-blue often do lean Democratic.

usually the white vote is pretty close in those states.  Obama won the white vote in all but 1 in 08 then Trump in 16 won the white vote in all but 2.

Indeed, whites tend to vote Republican as a whole. In Texas, Trump won the white vote by double digits.

by over 30 points

[Idaho Conservative]

I'm iffy on Illinois as well, for the rest great map.

New Mexico and New Jersey kind of stick out like sore thumbs. I am also pretty sure they are the only two Democratic states with Republican-leaning non-Hispanic Whites where Black voters were not decisive.

well NM has lots of Hispanics and parts are quasi southern.  Southeastern NM whites are probably 80%+ Republican.  NJ has a lot of blacks and conservative Italian whites.  Also, it lacks a true urban core like NY has.  NJ is kind of like NY-Manhattan and Brooklyn 

[Catalyst138]

How much would a Democrat have to win VA by in order to win the white vote there?

[Idaho Conservative]

How much would a Democrat have to win VA by in order to win the white vote there?

close to 20 points

[Idaho Conservative]

This map seems accurate for the most part, although I think Trump won the white vote in Illinois.

My preliminary calculations have Illinois as slightly R (and Delaware as well). I'm waiting on census data, but once that is published, I'll make a model of 2020 just like 2016.

NE-2 and NJ?

[Samof94]

According to Reagante’s map (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392676.msg7573685#msg7573685), if your map is correct, this would mean Biden flipped the white vote from 2016 in CO, MN, IL, MD, DE, NY, CT and NH (all of which I think are plausible). If Biden has indeed won the white vote in Maryland, he is the first Democrat to do so since LBJ in his 1964 landslide.

White voters in non Southern states that are ultra-blue often do lean Democratic.

usually the white vote is pretty close in those states.  Obama won the white vote in all but 1 in 08 then Trump in 16 won the white vote in all but 2.

Indeed, whites tend to vote Republican as a whole. In Texas, Trump won the white vote by double digits.

by over 30 points

No surprise.