Why did Matt Rosendale lose to Jon Tester in 2018, and will he run again in 2024 for a rematch?

[Woody]

Why did he lose in 18'?

And since he is now the congressman representing MT's at-large (for the moment) district. Will he run again in 2024 for a rematch?

[TML]

In 2018, Rosendale was successfully cast as not being Montanan enough due to his out-of-state origins and his accent differing considerably from the local accent. Exit polls showed his net favorability rating to be -11, which wiped out his potential advantages on the electorate wanting Republican control of the Senate, having a more favorable view of the Republican Party compared to the Democratic Party, as well as thinking that Tester was too liberal and Rosendale was “just right.” Tester, on the other hand, ran his campaign emphasizing the positive contributions he made to his state (e.g. highlighting the bills he wrote which eventually got signed into law) as well as portraying himself as being in-touch with the state (e.g. mentioning how he regularly returns to his family farm in a rural part of the state).

A key difference between the 2018 and 2020 electorates in MT was the partisan composition: exit polls showed that the partisan composition of the 2018 electorate in MT was 25D-29R-45I, whereas in 2020 it was 22D-38R-41I. This increase in Republican turnout in 2020 was probably driven by Trump’s presence at the top of the ticket, and most of these voters voted straight-ticket Republican, which turned every single statewide contest in the state into decisive Republican victories (and Rosendale was one of many Republican beneficiaries from this turnout surge).

As for whether he’ll run in 2024, it probably depends his political ambitions then. His success will likely depend on how popular he and Tester are at the time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He will lose because Tester is an entrenched INCUMBENT that helps with the recruitment of DSCC candidates that's why we have good DSCC candidates as we did in 2020 SIFTON, JACKSON, NELSON, FETTERMAN.  These candidates will follow the Ossoff model and can appeal to WC females since the Insurrectionists happened after Nov 2020 Election

The only person that can beat Tester, isn't retread Rosendale, but Gov Gianforte and he is Gov already not running for Senate.

Bullock would have won if Insurrectionists happened earlier

[Xing]

Because he had more fingers than tractors, obviously. Hard to see him beating Tester unless that changes before 2024.