Underrated 2024 battleground states?

[Catalyst138]

Democrats:
South Carolina
 

Why South Carolina? Democrats have been stuck at the low 40% range for years, it’s not trending D at all. It’s closer than most red states but I think Republicans have a very hard floor here, especially since Jaime Harrison didn’t even get within single digits.

Bold prediction:  In 2024, New Mexico will vote to the right of the NPV (and thus would flip in a PV win for the GOP.) 

The writing on the wall is there based on the 2020 PRES/SEN results, and the Latino trend towards the GOP looks favorable 

Why? New Mexico actually trended slightly MORE left this cycle, and Biden had the largest margin for a Democrat since 1964.

Second largest. Obama won it by 15% in 2008.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Nevada, Maine, and Utah (yes, really).

[MATTROSE94]

Bold prediction:  In 2024, New Mexico will vote to the right of the NPV (and thus would flip in a PV win for the GOP.) 

The writing on the wall is there based on the 2020 PRES/SEN results, and the Latino trend towards the GOP looks favorable 

I agree. I think New Mexico easily votes for Ron DeSantis by about 3% in 2024, as Ron DeSantis has a lot of Hispanic support. I also have Martin Heinrich going down in defeat to a retread Mark Ronchetti candidacy that year as well. I think that Mark Ronchetti will be a one-term wonder however and lose to Xochitl Torres Small in 2030.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Democrats
-Alaska
-Utah
-Kansas
-South Carolina
Republicans
-Nevada
-Minnesota
-New Mexico
-Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District
-Maine

[kwabbit]

I don't think there will be any massive surprises in 2024 for Atlas types, but Kansas and Alaska have had repeated Dem trends. Alaska would probably be the first to flip given its idiosyncratic nature. Kansas will require more time in all likelihood if it ever goes blue. On the GOP side, NV and NM definitely have some upside for Republicans. It was odd that NM didn't trend right this cycle given the Hispanic gains, but it'll be on the GOP radar given how close the Senate race was with basically no investment from them.

I also think Michigan could go the way of Ohio in the near future and become like R+6 relative to NPV. Democrats still do relatively well in the rural areas and overperform in places like Genesee and Saginaw Counties. I could see the latter two flip like in the case of Mahoning and Trumbull in Ohio.

Same in Wisconsin where I could see WOW snapping back and Driftless continue to trend right, leaving a lean GOP state where Democrats only do well in Milwaukee and Dane.

[Asta]

Maybe Alaska? Or are we talking about battleground states that no one would've expected to flip (like Georgia 2020)? Because if that's the case then I'd say Nevada and maybe Minnesota and New Hampshire depending on the candidate. Kansas could end up being one of these in a future cycle for all we know. And laugh at me all you want but maybe Illinois, Oregon, Delaware, Rhode Island and God forbid New York all have a sizable but small rightward shift? Anything is possible.

I'd even add New Jersey to that list. Polling there actually underestimated Trump by a few points. If Republicans can maintain their gains with Hispanics while nominating someone who's a little more palatable to the suburbs, it could be slightly closer.

I agree that a Republican nominee can make NJ competitive. It would take a relatively moderate nominee like Christie to accelerate the process though. Since 2000, our margin has been stubbornly around 57-41 more or less so it will take more than one or two cycles.

[TheReckoning]

Stop trying to make Competitive Minnesota happen. It's not going to happen.

It was literally to the right of the nation in 2016. It could definitely become competitive.

[Malarkey Decider]

I honestly think Trump 2016 + Nevada (and MAYBE NH) is the best map for Republicans in 2024 at this point.

[EastwoodS]

Stop trying to make Competitive Minnesota happen. It's not going to happen.

Democrats:
Alaska
Florida
Iowa
North Carolina
Ohio
South Carolina
Texas

might want to add Montana

Then don’t call Texas competitive, got it?

[Kuumo]

In order from most to least likely to flip.

Underrated potential D flips: Texas, Alaska (would include Florida here between Texas and Alaska but think the consensus on its competitiveness is accurate)

Underrated potential R flips: Nevada, Maine, New Hampshire

[Hope For A New Era]

It was literally to the right of the nation in 2016. It could definitely become competitive.

Because third-party candidates made up 8.64% of the vote.

Then don’t call Texas competitive, got it?

The dynamics at play are fundamentally different between Texas and Minnesota.

[TheReckoning]

It was literally to the right of the nation in 2016. It could definitely become competitive.

Because third-party candidates made up 8.64% of the vote.

And? 1.8% of the vote went to Evan McMullin, a solidly conservative candidate, which was larger than the gap between Trump and Clinton. 3rd party votes could’ve easily helped Clinton, not Trump.

[Chips]

Underrated potential GOP upsets: MN, NH, ME, NM

Underrated potential Dem upsets: TX, FL, AK

[Malarkey Decider]

It was literally to the right of the nation in 2016. It could definitely become competitive.

Because third-party candidates made up 8.64% of the vote.

And? 1.8% of the vote went to Evan McMullin, a solidly conservative candidate, which was larger than the gap between Trump and Clinton. 3rd party votes could’ve easily helped Clinton, not Trump.

Yeah, but those who voted for Evan McMullin were not "Solidly Conservative"

[Stranger in a strange land]

It was literally to the right of the nation in 2016. It could definitely become competitive.

Because third-party candidates made up 8.64% of the vote.

And? 1.8% of the vote went to Evan McMullin, a solidly conservative candidate, which was larger than the gap between Trump and Clinton. 3rd party votes could’ve easily helped Clinton, not Trump.

Yeah, but those who voted for Evan McMullin were not "Solidly Conservative"

Scorching hot take: McMullin actually helped Trump because he gave anti-Trump conservatives a place to park their votes and vote GOP down-ticket without having to bite the bullet and actually vote for Clinton. Like looking at the MN & VA results in particular, I'm pretty sure that most 2016 McMullin voters outside of Utah voted for Biden in 2020.

[DaleCooper]

I don't buy Minnesota being competitive in 2024 or in the near-future after that so long as the party coalitions look like they did in 2020.

[Figueira]

Alaska, but it's the kind of place where it's going to do what it's going to do.

[Senator Incitatus]

New Mexico.