Rep. Mucarsel-Powell's thoughts on the Republican gains in South Florida

[VAR]

Many have commented on Democratic losses in South Florida and with Latinos across the country.

As the Congresswoman from #FL26 who lost her seat, and the first South American immigrant ever elected to Congress...

Let me set the record straight.

My district voted for Clinton +16% and Trump +6% — that's a DRAMATIC 22 pt swing at the top of the ticket not easily explained by this false narrative of progressives versus moderates.

I won by 2% in 2018 and lost by 3% in 2020.

Despite this swing, I was one of just a few Democrats nationally to outperform Biden. Here's why:
1. Focused on the economy
2. Knocked on 23k doors & had convos w 133k ppl via phone & text
3. Invested big in radio, mail, digital & TV
4. And did it all in English AND Spanish

I was a leader in advocating for Venezuelan freedom — and as an immigrant, my story is the Miami story.

But it wasn't enough. Because South FL is extremely diverse. We are unique. And when others try to treat Latinos as a monolithic group, they miss the nuances.

Yes, the fear of socialism is real and engrained for those of us who fled dangerous places in search of the American dream. My own father was murdered by a criminal with a gun in Ecuador.

But it's not why I lost and it's not the only reason South Florida went red.

There were many factors: a targeted disinformation campaign to Latinos; an electorate desperate to re-open, wracked with fear over the economic consequences; a national party that thinks racial identity is how we vote.

It's not just about socialism.

Florida & National Dems: Our brightest days are ahead. To get there, we must step back and deeply analyze how we're talking to Latinos and every voter. As the first South American immigrant elected to Congress, I stand with you as we do it.

And to South Florida and the Keys: it has been the honor of my life to serve you. I love this community, from Key West, to the Upper Keys, to South Miami. I'll keep fighting to make sure no one messes with my people.

Please stay safe, wear a mask & enjoy the holidays.

https://twitter.com/DebbieforFL/status/1329091111734820866

[Frenchrepublican]

Many have commented on Democratic losses in South Florida and with Latinos across the country.

As the Congresswoman from #FL26 who lost her seat, and the first South American immigrant ever elected to Congress...

Let me set the record straight.

My district voted for Clinton +16% and Trump +6% — that's a DRAMATIC 22 pt swing at the top of the ticket not easily explained by this false narrative of progressives versus moderates.

I won by 2% in 2018 and lost by 3% in 2020.

Despite this swing, I was one of just a few Democrats nationally to outperform Biden. Here's why:
1. Focused on the economy
2. Knocked on 23k doors & had convos w 133k ppl via phone & text
3. Invested big in radio, mail, digital & TV
4. And did it all in English AND Spanish

I was a leader in advocating for Venezuelan freedom — and as an immigrant, my story is the Miami story.

But it wasn't enough. Because South FL is extremely diverse. We are unique. And when others try to treat Latinos as a monolithic group, they miss the nuances.

Yes, the fear of socialism is real and engrained for those of us who fled dangerous places in search of the American dream. My own father was murdered by a criminal with a gun in Ecuador.

But it's not why I lost and it's not the only reason South Florida went red.

There were many factors: a targeted disinformation campaign to Latinos; an electorate desperate to re-open, wracked with fear over the economic consequences; a national party that thinks racial identity is how we vote.

It's not just about socialism.

Florida & National Dems: Our brightest days are ahead. To get there, we must step back and deeply analyze how we're talking to Latinos and every voter. As the first South American immigrant elected to Congress, I stand with you as we do it.

And to South Florida and the Keys: it has been the honor of my life to serve you. I love this community, from Key West, to the Upper Keys, to South Miami. I'll keep fighting to make sure no one messes with my people.

Please stay safe, wear a mask & enjoy the holidays.

https://twitter.com/DebbieforFL/status/1329091111734820866

LOL

It is very uncommon that an area which swings 15 points in one direction between two presidential elections then suddenly swing back in the other direction.

[😥]

Very sad that she lost

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Very sad happythat she lost

ftfy

[GALeftist]

Wonder where Shalala's thoughts are on this, makes u think

[Donerail]

It is very uncommon that an area which swings 15 points in one direction between two presidential elections then suddenly swing back in the other direction.

It is also very uncommon that an area which swings 6 points in one direction suddenly swings back by 22 points in the other direction, but

[Frenchrepublican]

It is very uncommon that an area which swings 15 points in one direction between two presidential elections then suddenly swing back in the other direction.

It is also very uncommon that an area which swings 6 points in one direction suddenly swings back by 22 points in the other direction, but

The problem for your party is that the 2016 dem trends in Miami were more an anomaly than anything else, just look at the 2018 results, contrary to other areas which trended heavily toward Clinton in 2016 the dem trends in South Florida  didn’t last as Gillum and Nelson underperformed Clinton despite doing better than her statewide.

Why did Miami trend so much toward Clinton in 2016 ? I don’t know. Maybe Trump was perceived as racist ? Maybe some people were angry toward Trump for having defeated the two Florida favourites sons. Maybe Clinton was seen as a hawk who would stand up to South American despots.

What’s clear is that contrary to 2016 pro GOP trends in South Florida are not an anomaly as they happened in many other areas with similar demographics, if like some dem hacks you’re putting the Biden underperformance in Miami on the back of the lone issue of Cuba you’re probably missing a large part of the problem

[Donerail]

What’s clear is that contrary to 2016 pro GOP trends in South Florida are not an anomaly as they happened in many other areas with similar demographics, if like some dem hacks you’re putting the Biden underperformance in Miami on the back of the lone issue of Cuba you’re probably missing a large part of the problem

There are no areas similar to South Florida anywhere on the planet.

[KaiserDave]

What’s clear is that contrary to 2016 pro GOP trends in South Florida are not an anomaly as they happened in many other areas with similar demographics, if like some dem hacks you’re putting the Biden underperformance in Miami on the back of the lone issue of Cuba you’re probably missing a large part of the problem

There are no areas similar to South Florida anywhere on the planet.

True, but I improved it for you

[Frenchrepublican]

What’s clear is that contrary to 2016 pro GOP trends in South Florida are not an anomaly as they happened in many other areas with similar demographics, if like some dem hacks you’re putting the Biden underperformance in Miami on the back of the lone issue of Cuba you’re probably missing a large part of the problem

There are no areas similar to South Florida anywhere on the planet.

Obviously, but there are other areas with some similar characteristics (LA county for example), and in these places democrats also underperformed.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

What’s clear is that contrary to 2016 pro GOP trends in South Florida are not an anomaly as they happened in many other areas with similar demographics, if like some dem hacks you’re putting the Biden underperformance in Miami on the back of the lone issue of Cuba you’re probably missing a large part of the problem

There are no areas similar to South Florida anywhere on the planet.

Obviously, but there are other areas with some similar characteristics (LA county for example), and in these places democrats also underperformed.

Uh, no.


Source: Wikipedia

>982,758 Cubans in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach area versus >49,702 in Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What’s clear is that contrary to 2016 pro GOP trends in South Florida are not an anomaly as they happened in many other areas with similar demographics, if like some dem hacks you’re putting the Biden underperformance in Miami on the back of the lone issue of Cuba you’re probably missing a large part of the problem

There are no areas similar to South Florida anywhere on the planet.

Obviously, but there are other areas with some similar characteristics (LA county for example), and in these places democrats also underperformed.

Uh, no.


Source: Wikipedia

>982,758 Cubans in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach area versus >49,702 in Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana.

It's amazing how clearly you can see Florida's borders with Georgia and Alabama on that map.  Even when it seems like areas right across a border are similar, sometimes state lines do have real impacts on things.

[Tekken_Guy]

She's 100% right on this. Everyone assumes Hispanics vote like blacks when in fact, they're highly politically diverse. A lot don't like being tokenized as people who only care about immigration. Democrats need to do stronger outreach to the community and try to understand the issues they actually care about. "Republicans are racist" is not a convincing argument and is not the reason why blacks are so loyal to Democrats.

Also understand that there is a large cohort of Hispanic voters that are solidly Republican and just not winnable for Democrats.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

It's amazing how clearly you can see Florida's borders with Georgia and Alabama on that map.  Even when it seems like areas right across a border are similar, sometimes state lines do have real impacts on things.

For Florida, yeah, but you can also see strong Cuban populations in almost all of New Jersey plus the NYC metro. I would suspect that a large number of them immigrated pre-Castro, but I might be wrong.

New Jersey also trended R but swung D, so even Cubans are not a monolithic group by any means.

[GALeftist]

It's amazing how clearly you can see Florida's borders with Georgia and Alabama on that map.  Even when it seems like areas right across a border are similar, sometimes state lines do have real impacts on things.

For Florida, yeah, but you can also see strong Cuban populations in almost all of New Jersey plus the NYC metro. I would suspect that a large number of them immigrated pre-Castro, but I might be wrong.

New Jersey also trended R but swung D, so even Cubans are not a monolithic group by any means.

Yeah, I'd put good money on the assertion that pre-Castro Cubans/NYC Cubans are much, much more D leaning than post-Castro Cubans/FL Cubans

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

What’s clear is that contrary to 2016 pro GOP trends in South Florida are not an anomaly as they happened in many other areas with similar demographics, if like some dem hacks you’re putting the Biden underperformance in Miami on the back of the lone issue of Cuba you’re probably missing a large part of the problem

There are no areas similar to South Florida anywhere on the planet.

Obviously, but there are other areas with some similar characteristics (LA county for example), and in these places democrats also underperformed.

Uh, no.


Source: Wikipedia

>982,758 Cubans in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach area versus >49,702 in Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana.

Can confirm, these are more republican than the Cubans in Miami though.

[Pollster]

Very good analysis by a very good politician who ran two very good campaigns against two very good opponents.

Her performance in 2020 is quite impressive all things considered (the national environment, conditions for Dems in Florida specifically, Biden's performance in the district, facing probably one of the top GOP House recruits of the cycle, limitations imposed by COVID). Personally, I hope this isn't the last we see of her.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

It's amazing how clearly you can see Florida's borders with Georgia and Alabama on that map.  Even when it seems like areas right across a border are similar, sometimes state lines do have real impacts on things.

For Florida, yeah, but you can also see strong Cuban populations in almost all of New Jersey plus the NYC metro. I would suspect that a large number of them immigrated pre-Castro, but I might be wrong.

New Jersey also trended R but swung D, so even Cubans are not a monolithic group by any means.

Yeah, I'd put good money on the assertion that pre-Castro Cubans/NYC Cubans are much, much more D leaning than post-Castro Cubans/FL Cubans

If I can, pre-Castro Cubans mainly populated New York, and then went over the New Jersey, Havana on the Hudson is there. Bob Menendez and Albio Sires are both from the pre-Castro Cuban tradition. They're far more Democratic, and I'd say in my experiences are an actual D leaning group outright, although there's still massive anti-Castro sentiment there, it's not associated with socialism and then democrats.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

She may have thought she “took out the Cuban republican establishment” but looks like they get the last laugh.

Viva Cuba Libre

[Frenchrepublican]

What’s clear is that contrary to 2016 pro GOP trends in South Florida are not an anomaly as they happened in many other areas with similar demographics, if like some dem hacks you’re putting the Biden underperformance in Miami on the back of the lone issue of Cuba you’re probably missing a large part of the problem

There are no areas similar to South Florida anywhere on the planet.

Obviously, but there are other areas with some similar characteristics (LA county for example), and in these places democrats also underperformed.

Uh, no.


Source: Wikipedia

>982,758 Cubans in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach area versus >49,702 in Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana.

Miami Dade and LA have both in common a large and diverse Hispanic population and it’s noteworthy that both places trended hard to the right.

The point is that Biden underperformance among Hispanics was not limited to south Florida but was widespread across the country, that’s why democrats are wrong to downplay it.

Also your map is outdated, Cubans are no longer as much dominant in South Florida than they were in 2000.

[It’s so Joever]

What’s clear is that contrary to 2016 pro GOP trends in South Florida are not an anomaly as they happened in many other areas with similar demographics, if like some dem hacks you’re putting the Biden underperformance in Miami on the back of the lone issue of Cuba you’re probably missing a large part of the problem

There are no areas similar to South Florida anywhere on the planet.

Obviously, but there are other areas with some similar characteristics (LA county for example), and in these places democrats also underperformed.

Uh, no.


Source: Wikipedia

>982,758 Cubans in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach area versus >49,702 in Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana.

Miami Dade and LA have both in common a large and diverse Hispanic population and it’s noteworthy that both places trended hard to the right.

The point is that Biden underperformance among Hispanics was not limited to south Florida but was widespread across the country, that’s why democrats are wrong to downplay it.

Also your map is outdated, Cubans are no longer as much dominant in South Florida than they were in 2000.

It could easily be a future trend and I wouldn’t be shocked by it, but could we please wait until at least 2022 to declare this trend as inevitable?
If we don’t see some bounce back relative to 2020...yeah it’s probably a trend and Democrats should be s**tting their pants.
We are in an unusual political situation and I think we need far more data before making conclusions.

What I will say is that the inner-city trend R should have been expected. If anything I am surprised blacks didn’t swing R more.

[Frenchrepublican]

What’s clear is that contrary to 2016 pro GOP trends in South Florida are not an anomaly as they happened in many other areas with similar demographics, if like some dem hacks you’re putting the Biden underperformance in Miami on the back of the lone issue of Cuba you’re probably missing a large part of the problem

There are no areas similar to South Florida anywhere on the planet.

Obviously, but there are other areas with some similar characteristics (LA county for example), and in these places democrats also underperformed.

Uh, no.


Source: Wikipedia

>982,758 Cubans in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach area versus >49,702 in Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana.

Miami Dade and LA have both in common a large and diverse Hispanic population and it’s noteworthy that both places trended hard to the right.

The point is that Biden underperformance among Hispanics was not limited to south Florida but was widespread across the country, that’s why democrats are wrong to downplay it.

Also your map is outdated, Cubans are no longer as much dominant in South Florida than they were in 2000.

It could easily be a future trend and I wouldn’t be shocked by it, but could we please wait until at least 2022 to declare this trend as inevitable?
If we don’t see some bounce back relative to 2020...yeah it’s probably a trend and Democrats should be s**tting their pants.
We are in an unusual political situation and I think we need far more data before making conclusions.

What I will say is that the inner-city trend R should have been expected. If anything I am surprised blacks didn’t swing R more.

I agree with you, it's better to wait, after all one single election doesn't make a trend, but the thing is that with insight it seems that 2018 results - Gillun and Nelson underperforming Clinton - were the canary in the coal mine, the democrats' problems in these areas are probably bigger than simply Biden not speaking Spanish

[pbrower2a]

Trump went full Pinochet in advocating the moral antithesis of Marxism -- that any human suffering in the promotion of capitalist profit, power, and privilege is a good thing in itself. Trump may have given a suggestion that a second Trump term might lead to the liberation of Cuba and Venezuela with the establishment of an ideology much like his.

Trump's idea of capitalism is rotten to the core, something devoid of any human quality.  It is great for maximal profit.

Something else -- urban Florida... isn't that largely a service-oriented economy? Tourism is a big deal, and any lockdown intended to stop COVID-19 means that people don't travel south from the cold and cloudy North for fun in the sun. I would guess that Cuban-Americans are heavily involved in the service industry, and any lockdown means lost jobs. 

Donald Trump is a horrible person. Much of his political appeal is that of an abusive husband toward an often-battered wife: that life may be awful with him but impossible without him. If you run off you will never see the children again, I will feed your beloved pooch to an alligator (I had to make a reference to Florida's top predator), and I will quickly find someone else to live well while you have to live in a run-down apartment that you share with three other women who made the same mistake that you did and will never get out of working in a fast-food place or dollar store. Take your choice: the city bus or the family Buick.

There! Isn't that an easy choice! Now when the police come to ask you about the bruises make sure to tell them that you fell down the stairs.   

That is how Trump runs things, and that is how he campaigns. You may not like him, but you will be sorry if you turn away from him.