The political shifts of the Trump era

[Panda Express]

Biden won the PV over Trump by about the same as Obama over Romney in 2012.


Ohio

Delaware County (Columbus suburbs) - Romney +23 => Trump +6 (17 point swing)
Mahoning County (NE WWC) - Obama +28 => Trump +2 (30 point swing)

Indiana

Hamilton County (Indianapolis suburbs) - Romney +34 => Trump +7 (27 point swing)
Perry County (Rural ancestral dem)  - Obama +12 => Trump +25 (37 point swing)

Pennsylvania

Chester County (Philadelphia suburbs) -  Romney +1 => Biden + 17 (18 point swing)
Erie County (Rustbelt WWC) - Obama +16 => Biden +1 (15 point swing)

Illinois

DuPage County (Chicago suburbs) - Obama +1 => Biden +18 (17 point swing)
Whiteside County (Rustbelt WWC) - Obama +17 => Trump +8 (25 point swing)

Virginia

Loudon County (NoVa) - Obama +4 => Biden +25 (21 point swing)
Wise (Rural SW) - Romney +26 => Trump +62 (36 point swing)

Kentucky

Fayette County (Lexington) - Obama +1 => Biden +21 (20 point swing)
Elliott County (Rural ancestral dem) - Obama +1 => Trump +53 (52 point swing)

Wisconsin

Ozaukee County (Milwaukee suburbs) - Romney +32 => Trump +12 (20 point swing)
Crawford County (Rural driftless) - Obama +20 => Trump +9 (29 point swing)

Minnesota

Hennepin County (Minneapolis) - Obama +27 => Biden +43 (16 point swing)
Mower County (Rural ancestral dem) - Obama +23 => Trump +5 (28 point swing)

Georgia

Cobb County (Atlanta suburbs) - Romney +13 => Biden +14 (27 point swing)
Baker County (Rural SW) - Obama +1 => Trump +16 (17 point swing)

Colorado

Arapahoe County (Denver suburbs) - Obama +9 => Biden +25 (16 point swing)
Pueblo County (WWC) - Obama +14 => Biden +2 (12 point swing)

Texas

Collin County (Dallas suburbs) - Romney +32 => Trump +5 (27 point swing)
Zapata County (Rural Rio Grande) - Obama +35 => Trump +5 (40 point swing)

[Calthrina950]

These are certainly very illustrative of the changes we've seen. And it's astonishing how dramatic they have been in just eight years! 2012 seems like a completely different era, politically, considering these.

[Hope For A New Era]

Should put any doubt of realignment to rest.

[Calthrina950]

Should put any doubt of realignment to rest.

It's an unfortunate realignment, in my view. The Democratic Party, the Party of Andrew Jackson, William Jennings Bryan, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, and Barack Obama, ought to be the party of the working class, regardless of race or creed. However, the white working class is now overwhelmingly Republican, and this election revealed the beginnings of a pro-Republican trend among blacks and Hispanics. Now, the Democratic Party looks firmly set to be the party of college-educated, higher income urbanites and suburbanites-which is an astonishing development.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I think you are seeing a massive realignment where the Democrats are swapping working-class voters, lower income rural for upper-middle class, college-educated suburban and urban voters.

This shift began with Obama but really accelerated when Trump arrived.

[Non Swing Voter]

Biden won Loudoun county by 25 points

[woodley park]

I think you are seeing a massive realignment where the Democrats are swapping working-class voters, lower income rural for upper-middle class, college-educated suburban and urban voters.

This shift began with Obama but really accelerated when Trump arrived.

What kind of a map does this likely yield if this realignment reaches its full potential? Do you think the progressive left's desire to push for issues important to working class and lower income city and suburban voters will do anything to blunt these trends?

[MATTROSE94]

I think you are seeing a massive realignment where the Democrats are swapping working-class voters, lower income rural for upper-middle class, college-educated suburban and urban voters.

This shift began with Obama but really accelerated when Trump arrived.

What kind of a map does this likely yield if this realignment reaches its full potential? Do you think the progressive left's desire to push for issues important to working class and lower income city and suburban voters will do anything to blunt these trends?

Maybe it will result in a map similar to 1896, 1900, or 1908 with the exception of Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, and possibly Missouri. 

[Battista Minola 1616]

I think you are seeing a massive realignment where the Democrats are swapping working-class voters, lower income rural for upper-middle class, college-educated suburban and urban voters.

This shift began with Obama but really accelerated when Trump arrived.

What kind of a map does this likely yield if this realignment reaches its full potential? Do you think the progressive left's desire to push for issues that they believe to be important to working class and lower income city and suburban voters will do anything to blunt these trends?

FTFY

Also these trends have continued mostly undisturbed for at least two decades, so the answer is likely not.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I think you are seeing a massive realignment where the Democrats are swapping working-class voters, lower income rural for upper-middle class, college-educated suburban and urban voters.

This shift began with Obama but really accelerated when Trump arrived.

What kind of a map does this likely yield if this realignment reaches its full potential? Do you think the progressive left's desire to push for issues important to working class and lower income city and suburban voters will do anything to blunt these trends?

I think the urban/suburban and rural divide will only get worse so long as the GOP embraces Trump's brand of politics. You may start seeing suburban counties that once were Republican start to give the Dems a large margin.

I'm not sure if that will change the map much overall. The midwest has shifted right over last 8 years and the Atlanta metro area has made George a purple state. Florida/Ohio/IA/MO now appear to tilt Republican.

[Ferguson97]

I think you are seeing a massive realignment where the Democrats are swapping working-class voters, lower income rural for upper-middle class, college-educated suburban and urban voters.

This shift began with Obama but really accelerated when Trump arrived.

What kind of a map does this likely yield if this realignment reaches its full potential? Do you think the progressive left's desire to push for issues important to working class and lower income city and suburban voters will do anything to blunt these trends?

I think the urban/suburban and rural divide will only get worse so long as the GOP embraces Trump's brand of politics. You may start seeing suburban counties that once were Republican start to give the Dems a large margin.

I'm not sure if that will change the map much overall. The midwest has shifted right over last 8 years and the Atlanta metro area has made George a purple state. Florida/Ohio/IA/MO now appear to tilt Republican.

Missouri has been safe Republican for 12 years.