Are Dems too overconfident taking back the senate?

[Stuart98]

The biggest issue is how almost perfectly Senate race voting has become correlated with presidential voting.

Who are the people who would vote for Trump but for a Democratic Senate candidate?

Obama-Trump voters in rural eastern Iowa who still mostly identify as Democrats but like Trump specifically (so probably also Trump-Finkenauer/Loebsack voters), Trump-Kelly voters in rural western Kansas (that's where her win really came from - not Johnson County!), lots of Trump-Bullock voters from 2016 in Montana already, Trump-Golden voters in ME-02, the few surviving Ancestral Dems in North Carolina if Cunningham can pull off an Andy Beshear-level performance.

No idea who this would be in Texas or Georgia, though.

Memes and jokes aside, there will certainly be more Biden-Cornyn and Biden-Perdue voters than Trump-Hegar or Trump-Ossoff.

That sounds correct, but do we really think there will be that many in either category?

[ElectionsGuy]

The answer was yes. For the fourth straight cycle the odds of a Democratic Senate got overestimated. Technically there's still a chance they could get it if Biden wins and they win both Georgia runoffs (looks like Perdue will end up under 50), but it was projected to be easier for Democrats to flip the Senate this year than in 2016.

Nate Silver gave Democrats a 75% chance of a majority, Elliott Morris gave Democrats an 80% chance of winning the Senate. LeanTossUp gave Democrats a 91% chance. The average number of seats was 52.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bollier, Bullocks, Greenfield, Gideon and Cunningham failed the Dem, and they will be remembered in history for losing the Senate for Dems