Data for Progress: Biden+38 among those who have voted; Trump+1 among those who have not voted yet

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1323001667521024002

I did more napkin math and this results in...
Biden: 61%
Trump: 37%

I would be shocked if it's that lopsided, so maybe split the difference with this and the YouGov results?

[Crumpets]

It's striking that the "already voted" numbers are very much in line with the YouGov poll released earlier today with this same question while the "haven't voted yet" numbers are completely different. The only way they would square up is if a significant number of Biden voters plan to vote tomorrow specifically because the wording on the other poll was "vote on election day" not "haven't voted yet."

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah, I have a very very very hard time seeing the end result being Biden + 22% (Though tbf, when they were taking the poll, some of those people who may have not voted have voted). My personal prediction is that ED will have high turnout, the result won't be as lopsided towards Trump as people expect, so the advantage kind of cancels itself out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's striking that the "already voted" numbers are very much in line with the YouGov poll released earlier today with this same question while the "haven't voted yet" numbers are completely different. The only way they would square up is if a significant number of Biden voters plan to vote tomorrow specifically because the wording on the other poll was "vote on election day" not "haven't voted yet."

There's already a thread for this poll (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409395.0), and as I noted there, this is not a good comparison.  DFP was in the field Oct. 28-29.  "Yet to cast a ballot" would include people planning to vote early in person after that, along with those who had absentee ballots yet to be returned, in addition to those planning to vote on Election Day.  YouGov only reported the last group.