RCP average 4 days out....

[Person Man]

Is this the widest lead they have ever recorded on the Friday before the election?

[BudgieForce]

Is this the widest lead they have ever recorded on the Friday before the election?

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1322151563754901506

I believe so.


I've looked to see if RCP had an aggregate in 2000(the year they launched) and cant find anything.

[wbrocks67]

And Biden +7.4 is severely underestimating his margin, too.

[Beet]

There is little question Biden will likely win the national popular vote. Biden is up by a gigantic margin in the big blue metro areas, like NYC, DC, SF, LA, SEA, CHI, and so on. He is probably trailing by significantly less than Hillary in many deep Red states, too.

But in the swing states, these are not following the national trend. The RCP averages of many swing states show a very close race. And with the wildly different polls coming out from these states, these averages are not very reliable.

[wbrocks67]

There is little question Biden will likely win the national popular vote. Biden is up by a gigantic margin in the big blue metro areas, like NYC, DC, SF, LA, SEA, CHI, and so on. He is probably trailing by significantly less than Hillary in many deep Red states, too.

But in the swing states, these are not following the national trend. The RCP averages of many swing states show a very close race. And with the wildly different polls coming out from these states, these averages are not very reliable.

That was your first mistake

[Person Man]

There is little question Biden will likely win the national popular vote. Biden is up by a gigantic margin in the big blue metro areas, like NYC, DC, SF, LA, SEA, CHI, and so on. He is probably trailing by significantly less than Hillary in many deep Red states, too.

But in the swing states, these are not following the national trend. The RCP averages of many swing states show a very close race. And with the wildly different polls coming out from these states, these averages are not very reliable.

You realize that if Trump loses the Popular vote by 5 or 6 million but holds on because of a .1% victory in Pennsylvania and a .4% victory in Arizona and Florida that Democrats will see to it that this country is completely ungovernable, right?

[Del Tachi]

Doesn't really matter.  Biden's national coalition is the least efficient of any Democrat going back to the Reconstruction Era.  The tipping point states (probably PA or FL) will be significantly to the right of the NPV, more so than any other modern presidential election.   

If Biden's margin matches Obama's from 2008 and it's even remotely close in the electoral college, it's bad news for the Democrats

[wbrocks67]

Doesn't really matter.  Biden's national coalition is the least efficient of any Democrat going back to the Reconstruction Era.  The tipping point states (probably PA or FL) will be significantly to the right of the NPV, more so than any other modern presidential election.   

If Biden's margin matches Obama's from 2008 and it's even remotely close in the electoral college, it's bad news for the Democrats

sure jan

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Doesn't really matter.  Biden's national coalition is the least efficient of any Democrat going back to the Reconstruction Era.  The tipping point states (probably PA or FL) will be significantly to the right of the NPV, more so than any other modern presidential election.  

If Biden's margin matches Obama's from 2008 and it's even remotely close in the electoral college, it's bad news for the Democrats

Cope


You can argue that the Senate stays Republican, but if you have any attachment to reality, you would realize that Biden is completely safe in this election.

[Buzz]

Doesn't really matter.  Biden's national coalition is the least efficient of any Democrat going back to the Reconstruction Era.  The tipping point states (probably PA or FL) will be significantly to the right of the NPV, more so than any other modern presidential election.   

If Biden's margin matches Obama's from 2008 and it's even remotely close in the electoral college, it's bad news for the Democrats

spot on.  Going to be bizarre when Biden wins by 6-8 points and still can’t over 290 EV

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Doesn't really matter.  Biden's national coalition is the least efficient of any Democrat going back to the Reconstruction Era.  The tipping point states (probably PA or FL) will be significantly to the right of the NPV, more so than any other modern presidential election.   

If Biden's margin matches Obama's from 2008 and it's even remotely close in the electoral college, it's bad news for the Democrats

spot on.  Going to be bizarre when Biden wins by 6-8 points and still can’t over 290 EV

This is actually possible... but even in this worse case scenario for Biden, Donald Trump is still removed from President and thus holds no direct power.

[Beet]

There is little question Biden will likely win the national popular vote. Biden is up by a gigantic margin in the big blue metro areas, like NYC, DC, SF, LA, SEA, CHI, and so on. He is probably trailing by significantly less than Hillary in many deep Red states, too.

But in the swing states, these are not following the national trend. The RCP averages of many swing states show a very close race. And with the wildly different polls coming out from these states, these averages are not very reliable.

You realize that if Trump loses the Popular vote by 5 or 6 million but holds on because of a .1% victory in Pennsylvania and a .4% victory in Arizona and Florida that Democrats will see to it that this country is completely ungovernable, right?

You mean like they said they would burn the country down if the GOP tried to replace RBG? No, the resistance moms and David Frum types that Biden has built his campaign appealing to are not going to be revolutionaries. There might be some rioting but at the end of the day you've got a group of people who've fundamentally spend five years demonizing the police & advocating gun control, against the most heavily armed right-wing populace in human history.

No, more likely what'll happen is the opposition'll become deeply demoralized, there will be a mass exodus of people seeking foreign passports (for real this time), and America will go into a more authoritarian phase, similar to other countries like Brazil, Russia, and so on.

[Person Man]

There is little question Biden will likely win the national popular vote. Biden is up by a gigantic margin in the big blue metro areas, like NYC, DC, SF, LA, SEA, CHI, and so on. He is probably trailing by significantly less than Hillary in many deep Red states, too.

But in the swing states, these are not following the national trend. The RCP averages of many swing states show a very close race. And with the wildly different polls coming out from these states, these averages are not very reliable.

You realize that if Trump loses the Popular vote by 5 or 6 million but holds on because of a .1% victory in Pennsylvania and a .4% victory in Arizona and Florida that Democrats will see to it that this country is completely ungovernable, right?

You mean like they said they would burn the country down if the GOP tried to replace RBG? No, the resistance moms and David Frum types that Biden has built his campaign appealing to are not going to be revolutionaries. There might be some rioting but at the end of the day you've got a group of people who've fundamentally spend five years demonizing the police & advocating gun control, against the most heavily armed right-wing populace in human history.

No, more likely what'll happen is the opposition'll become deeply demoralized, there will be a mass exodus of people seeking foreign passports (for real this time), and America will go into a more authoritarian phase, similar to other countries like Brazil, Russia, and so on.

I could see either one happening. If the country gets burned down or if the smart "Go Galt" or whatever, in the end, the same thing happens; the United States goes through maybe 20 years like Russia or Brazil and comes out a country like Argentina.

[Del Tachi]

Doesn't really matter.  Biden's national coalition is the least efficient of any Democrat going back to the Reconstruction Era.  The tipping point states (probably PA or FL) will be significantly to the right of the NPV, more so than any other modern presidential election.   

If Biden's margin matches Obama's from 2008 and it's even remotely close in the electoral college, it's bad news for the Democrats

Cope


You can argue that the Senate stays Republican, but if you have any attachment to reality, you would realize that Biden is completely safe in this election.

Uhm...when did I say Biden would lose?  It would be embarrassing (and bad news for the Democrats) if he wins by 8pts with a 290 map

[It’s so Joever]

Doesn't really matter.  Biden's national coalition is the least efficient of any Democrat going back to the Reconstruction Era.  The tipping point states (probably PA or FL) will be significantly to the right of the NPV, more so than any other modern presidential election.   

If Biden's margin matches Obama's from 2008 and it's even remotely close in the electoral college, it's bad news for the Democrats

Quoting this because I would not be caught dead recommending a post from Del Tachi, even though it’s true.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Doesn't really matter.  Biden's national coalition is the least efficient of any Democrat going back to the Reconstruction Era.  The tipping point states (probably PA or FL) will be significantly to the right of the NPV, more so than any other modern presidential election.   

If Biden's margin matches Obama's from 2008 and it's even remotely close in the electoral college, it's bad news for the Democrats

Cope


You can argue that the Senate stays Republican, but if you have any attachment to reality, you would realize that Biden is completely safe in this election.

Uhm...when did I say Biden would lose?  It would be embarrassing (and bad news for the Democrats) if he wins by 8pts with a 290 map

Biden will have a much better map than 290 if he wins by 8%.

[Del Tachi]

Doesn't really matter.  Biden's national coalition is the least efficient of any Democrat going back to the Reconstruction Era.  The tipping point states (probably PA or FL) will be significantly to the right of the NPV, more so than any other modern presidential election.   

If Biden's margin matches Obama's from 2008 and it's even remotely close in the electoral college, it's bad news for the Democrats

Cope


You can argue that the Senate stays Republican, but if you have any attachment to reality, you would realize that Biden is completely safe in this election.

Uhm...when did I say Biden would lose?  It would be embarrassing (and bad news for the Democrats) if he wins by 8pts with a 290 map

Biden will have a much better map than 290 if he wins by 8%.

Maybe, we'll see.

An 8% lead for Biden is significantly buoyed by increased margins in states like CA, NY and IL, close races in TX/GA, and swings towards him in Lean/Likely R states like SC and KS. 

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Aren't big cities in safe states ghost towns? And isn't Trump trending the right way in CA? This election had the potential to be completely inefficient, but COVID plus the Trump campaign strategy have reduced that significantly. Biden will easily clear 300 anyway. Maybe a 3 point gap between NPV and tipping point is possible, sure, but it could've been over 4.

[woodley park]

Doesn't really matter.  Biden's national coalition is the least efficient of any Democrat going back to the Reconstruction Era.  The tipping point states (probably PA or FL) will be significantly to the right of the NPV, more so than any other modern presidential election.   

If Biden's margin matches Obama's from 2008 and it's even remotely close in the electoral college, it's bad news for the Democrats

Cope


You can argue that the Senate stays Republican, but if you have any attachment to reality, you would realize that Biden is completely safe in this election.

Uhm...when did I say Biden would lose?  It would be embarrassing (and bad news for the Democrats) if he wins by 8pts with a 290 map

It would be embarrassing for the entire country if Biden only wins by 290 -- not just embarrassing for his campaign or the Democratic party. In the face that all that has happened this year, and Trump's response to it, this election should be an absolute rout for the opposition party. Our credibility as a world leader depends on your party getting a thorough thrashing next week.

[Landslide Lyndon]

RCP averages are useless. Even Charlie Cook took a swipe at them in his latest article.

[Non Swing Voter]

and when you factor in that more than half the electorate has already voted, the polls would have to be wildly off for Trump to win.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Doesn't really matter.  Biden's national coalition is the least efficient of any Democrat going back to the Reconstruction Era.  The tipping point states (probably PA or FL) will be significantly to the right of the NPV, more so than any other modern presidential election.   

If Biden's margin matches Obama's from 2008 and it's even remotely close in the electoral college, it's bad news for the Democrats

Cope


You can argue that the Senate stays Republican, but if you have any attachment to reality, you would realize that Biden is completely safe in this election.

Uhm...when did I say Biden would lose?  It would be embarrassing (and bad news for the Democrats) if he wins by 8pts with a 290 map

It would be bad news for this country a candidate with that large a popular vote margin did not coast to victory in the EC. 2016 was bad enough. This would be worse.

[MikeIrvine]

Doesn't really matter.  Biden's national coalition is the least efficient of any Democrat going back to the Reconstruction Era.  The tipping point states (probably PA or FL) will be significantly to the right of the NPV, more so than any other modern presidential election.   

If Biden's margin matches Obama's from 2008 and it's even remotely close in the electoral college, it's bad news for the Democrats

Cope


You can argue that the Senate stays Republican, but if you have any attachment to reality, you would realize that Biden is completely safe in this election.

Uhm...when did I say Biden would lose?  It would be embarrassing (and bad news for the Democrats) if he wins by 8pts with a 290 map

It would be bad news for this country a candidate with that large a popular vote margin did not coast to victory in the EC. 2016 was bad enough. This would be worse.

I agree. 2016 was bad. But if Biden wins by north of like 5 percent and still somehow loses the EC...there should be no justification for keeping it.

[S019ian Liberal]

rise and fall of the GoLd StAnDaRd of polling averages.