Outstanding votes by state

[mileslunn]

Looking at the four states not all networks have called, how many votes remain to count, anybody have link.

Those are:

Alaska
Arizona
Georgia
North Carolina

Reason I would like that is so I can do some calculations on how much Biden needs to get to flip Alaska and North Carolina (note I don't think Biden has a chance in Alaska) while for Arizona and Georgia what Trump needs to win them.

Also for Illinois and New York, Trump's numbers look unusually high so wondering what you anticipate the final numbers will be for him.  No way Trump gets 43% in New York and even 42% in Illinois seems unlikely so assuming its mostly mail in ballots to count in both.

For Pennsylvania while called, curious how many ballots left as earlier I calculated Biden's estimated win by 70K, while lead now at 43K so is that right or am I overestimating Biden here?

[Tender Branson]

I think there are more than 10 million votes left to count.

160 million votes is not that unlikely, with Biden passing 80 million.

[mileslunn]

I think there are more than 10 million votes left to count.

160 million votes is not that unlikely, with Biden passing 80 million.

What is breakdown by state, particularly the four states uncalled (some networks have called Arizona but not all, while none have called Georgia, North Carolina or Alaska).  Also Trump vote sure in Illinois and New York seems rather high based on overall trends so guessing still many mail in votes to count in those two thus will push it down.

Wisconsin and Michigan I believe are done, but Pennsylvania and Nevada aren't so would be interested in how many left.  Biden has won both, but by interesting to see if in Pennsylvania Trump has a chance at getting back into recount territory (more likely just pads Biden's lead).

[n1240]

For uncalled states

Alaska: 134k minimum, 170k maximum (maximum assumes all mail returned)
Arizona: 55k minimum, 77k maximum (minimum assumes fairly aggressive provisional rejection rate, with ~80% acceptance rate expect around 65k)
Georgia: unknown amount of provisionals, probably fewer than 20k
North Carolina: 40k provisionals (probably 50%-70% acceptance rate), 30k mail-in ready for tabulation, less than 10k more mail returned on time - probably around 60k ballots to add to total

Other states

New York: 1.8 million minimum, 2.3 maximum (maximum assumes all mail returned)
California: 3.4 million
Maryland: 500k (600k theoretically maximum)
Illinois: unclear because I don't know how many mail-in votes Cook County has counted, maybe 600-700k left statewide?
New Jersey: unclear since I don't know many returns/counts by county, probably 800-900k or so
Washington: 100-150k, depending on rejection rate of returned ballots
Colorado: around 140k
Nevada: 60k?

Probably some scattered in other states, particularly those that accept late postmarks but those don't tend to be too large in volume generally, especially since voters seemed to rush sending in ballots this year.

[mileslunn]

For uncalled states

Alaska: 134k minimum, 170k maximum (maximum assumes all mail returned)
Arizona: 55k minimum, 77k maximum (minimum assumes fairly aggressive provisional rejection rate, with ~80% acceptance rate expect around 65k)
Georgia: unknown amount of provisionals, probably fewer than 20k
North Carolina: 40k provisionals (probably 50%-70% acceptance rate), 30k mail-in ready for tabulation, less than 10k more mail returned on time - probably around 60k ballots to add to total

Other states

New York: 1.8 million minimum, 2.3 maximum (maximum assumes all mail returned)
California: 3.4 million
Maryland: 500k (600k theoretically maximum)
Illinois: unclear because I don't know how many mail-in votes Cook County has counted, maybe 600-700k left statewide?
New Jersey: unclear since I don't know many returns/counts by county, probably 800-900k or so
Washington: 100-150k, depending on rejection rate of returned ballots
Colorado: around 140k
Nevada: 60k?

Probably some scattered in other states, particularly those that accept late postmarks but those don't tend to be too large in volume generally, especially since voters seemed to rush sending in ballots this year.

How many left in Pennsylvania?  I am assuming Biden's lead should widen further.  Curious if he can get win state by more than 1% and get over 50%.  So far Michigan and NE-02 are only Trump 2016 states where Biden has gotten over 50% or won by more than 1%.

[bagelman]

Some of the most outstanding votes we've seen include BRTD's traditional write in of Family Guy characters and obscure musicians against unopposed DFL officials in Minneapolis. Because we can't just look up ballots for fun we can't actually see what are probably the best ones, and some of the most creative write ins are invalid because they don't vote for only good option Joe Biden. Ticket splitters most outstanding are Biden/Salazar votes in FL-27.

[n1240]

How many left in Pennsylvania?  I am assuming Biden's lead should widen further.  Curious if he can get win state by more than 1% and get over 50%.  So far Michigan and NE-02 are only Trump 2016 states where Biden has gotten over 50% or won by more than 1%.

50k mail, ~95k provisionals

[tinman64]

In CA, there are still large swaths of outstanding ballots. County examples from state SOS site:

Alameda - 280,137
Contra Costa - 70,000
Fresno - 38,340
Kern - 177,896
Los Angeles - 610,800
Orange - 94,281
Riverside - 342,000
Sacramento - 260,804
San Bernardino - 276,050
San Diego - 305,000
San Francisco - 60,900
San Joaquin - 97,380
San Mateo - 73,056
Santa Barbara - 63,030
Santa Clara - 257,800
Sonoma - 62,500
Stanislaus - 42,590
Ventura - 32,910

Some 3.4 million outstanding throughout the state.