Biggest polling miss?

[AGA]

What was the biggest polling miss of the 2020 election? I know this is the presidential board, but I'm including downballot races as well.

[DaleCooper]

For statewide polls of the presidential election, probably Wisconsin again. Given how frequently the state was polled, that one is the most notable polling error.

[Matty]

Maine senate, and it isn't even close.

[Ancestral Republican]

Maine senate, and it isn't even close.

If a similar polling "error" happened in Latin America, the USA would be sending in CIA agents to question the legitimacy of the election.

[Devils30]

Wisconsin, Iowa for President.

Maine in Senate although N.C. was probably an illusion for Cunningham even before his scandal.

Georgia President was the biggest hit easily.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC and it wasn't even close, the Secular media kept saying that NC was turning blue, they were finding more ballots and Tillis ended up beating Cunningham

[Pericles]

Wisconsin is odd because the 2018 gubernatorial race didn't have nearly the same polling error as 2016 or 2020. That race was polled a lot less though.

[Beet]

Ohio was supposed to be Trump +1 on the RCP average, and Biden even visited this "battleground state" at the tail end of the campaign, and it ended up Trump +8.2, a 7.2 point miss.

In Iowa, a Monmouth poll in October had Finkenauer +10 and she lost by 2.6, a 12.6 point miss.

In Maine, Gideon led in 14/14 polls on the RCP average and was +6 in a late October Emerson poll, only to lose by 9, a 14.9 point miss.

In Wisconsin, an Oct. 20-25 ABC/WaPo poll had Biden +17, a 16.3 point miss.

In West Virginia, three polls were conducted between Sept. 29 and Oct. 20 with no more than Trump +20, and it ended up Trump +39.1, a 19.1 point miss.

The worst was a MetroNews-WV poll with Trump +14, a 24 point miss.

[AGA]

Ohio was supposed to be Trump +1 on the RCP average, and Biden even visited this "battleground state" at the tail end of the campaign, and it ended up Trump +8.2, a 7.2 point miss.

In Iowa, a Monmouth poll in October had Finkenauer +10 and she lost by 2.6, a 12.6 point miss.

In Maine, Gideon led in 14/14 polls on the RCP average and was +6 in a late October Emerson poll, only to lose by 9, a 14.9 point miss.

In Wisconsin, an Oct. 20-25 ABC/WaPo poll had Biden +17, a 16.3 point miss.

In West Virginia, three polls were conducted between Sept. 29 and Oct. 20 with no more than Trump +20, and it ended up Trump +39.1, a 19.1 point miss.

The worst was a MetroNews-WV poll with Trump +14, a 24 point miss.

I'm asking about aggregates, not individual polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Maine senate, and it isn't even close.

Yeah all the Ds on Atlasia said it was trolling if someone predicted a Collins winning and D's disappointed again and lost ME and NC
The D's like wbrooks87 and Landslide Lyndon bragged about how much money Gideon raised

All the polls showed Gideon leading by 7, likewise NC CUNNINGHAM had a lead of 10 points and Cooper had 19 pts

[BlueSwan]

Maine senate, and it isn't even close.

Haven't looked at all races, but amongst those where we seemingly had "solid" polling, this one has to be it.

[President Johnson]

On the presidential level, Ohio and Florida.

Downballot, Maine and North Carolina senate were pretty disastrous. Tillis was trailing in almost all polls, and mostly even failed to get out of the low 40s.

Of course you can add a number of other nut polls from safe states, such as the Trump +2 in Arkansas, which was preposterous.

Overall, 2020 polling was an overwhelming disaster. I hope they can seriously fix the issues or just give up. I won't take them seriously any more before we've seen at least one more cycle with more accurate polling.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The KS and MT polls which showed Bollier within the margin of error and Bullock tied and then AK and TX, HEGAR was consistently behind only 2/3 points all of them were down again by double digits.

They never showed us a real KS poll, they were all internals


But wbrooks87 and Landslide Lyndon told us that it was gonna be a D sweep due to how much money Ds have raised.

As I stated either D's are cooking the books on Act blue or they are paying too many consultants even James Harrison lost by 10 and he spent 80M on his race

[Non Swing Voter]

Wisconsin, as mentioned above, was probably the most egregious because it was a swing state everyone was focused on, expected to be close (and also historically very close) and therefore having a 17 point margin was just ridiculous on its face.