Guardian/Opinium: Biden +17

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

You really believe these polls? lol gtfo

[Rand]

You really believe these polls? lol gtfo

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

I mean, in reality, it's not like this is impossible.

If you look at it in the way of Trump has always catered to his base and turned off *Everyone Else*, this result makes complete sense.

No it doesn’t. Don’t be dumb.

Approvals in mid to upper 40s. Strong and growing economy. Ridiculously lower unemployment compared to March. Historic GDP growth. Record breaking stock market again. Gallup Poll with 56% saying better off than 4 years ago. Insipid Joe Biden with no policy agenda or enthusiasm. The insanely strong polarization of the nation.

No. It doesn’t make sense. In fact, it’s pure nonsense.

[WD]

I mean, in reality, it's not like this is impossible.

If you look at it in the way of Trump has always catered to his base and turned off *Everyone Else*, this result makes complete sense.

No it doesn’t. Don’t be dumb.

Approvals in mid to upper 40s. Strong and growing economy. Record breaking stock market again. Gallup Poll with 56% saying better off than 4 years ago.Insipid Joe Biden with no policy agenda or enthusiasm. The insanely strong polarization of the nation.

No. It doesn’t make sense. In fact, it’s pure nonsense.

“Polls are wrong because muh feelings”

Biden is going to be your next President. Get used to it.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

I mean, in reality, it's not like this is impossible.

If you look at it in the way of Trump has always catered to his base and turned off *Everyone Else*, this result makes complete sense.

No it doesn’t. Don’t be dumb.

Approvals in mid to upper 40s. Strong and growing economy. Record breaking stock market again. Gallup Poll with 56% saying better off than 4 years ago.Insipid Joe Biden with no policy agenda or enthusiasm. The insanely strong polarization of the nation.

No. It doesn’t make sense. In fact, it’s pure nonsense.

“Polls are wrong because muh feelings”

Biden is going to be your next President. Get used to it.

Well that’s projection. I just gave you reasons that aren’t feelings. Too many immature people on this forum.

[Brittain33]

Whats with the sudden Britisch pollsters polling US election?

The Guardian has a substantial US news site. Could be for a non-UK audience or for the interest or British readers or both.

[WD]

I mean, in reality, it's not like this is impossible.

If you look at it in the way of Trump has always catered to his base and turned off *Everyone Else*, this result makes complete sense.

No it doesn’t. Don’t be dumb.

Approvals in mid to upper 40s. Strong and growing economy. Record breaking stock market again. Gallup Poll with 56% saying better off than 4 years ago.Insipid Joe Biden with no policy agenda or enthusiasm. The insanely strong polarization of the nation.

No. It doesn’t make sense. In fact, it’s pure nonsense.

“Polls are wrong because muh feelings”

Biden is going to be your next President. Get used to it.

Well that’s projection. I just gave you reasons that aren’t feelings. Too many immature people on this forum.

Those aren’t reasons. Polarization is a meaningless buzzword that gets thrown around, but it really means nothing if it was the end all Biden wouldn’t be up by 9-10 points. Now, if Trump’s approvals are in the low 40s (Hint: Just like his poll numbers) he’s going to lose. Biden doesn’t have a policy agenda? That’s a blatant lie, go on his campaign website and see for yourself. No enthusiasm? Believe me, people are certain enthusiastic about voting Trump out. Strong economy? Unemployment is nearly 8%. Strong stock market? Sure, but the performance of the stock has no effect on the vast majority of working people. The average persons life is not affected by the market “booming”. And 56% of Americans better off? Funny how you believe the polls when they support your narrative.

[Ferguson97]

I mean, in reality, it's not like this is impossible.

If you look at it in the way of Trump has always catered to his base and turned off *Everyone Else*, this result makes complete sense.

No it doesn’t. Don’t be dumb.

Approvals in mid to upper 40s. Strong and growing economy. Ridiculously lower unemployment compared to March. Historic GDP growth. Record breaking stock market again. Gallup Poll with 56% saying better off than 4 years ago. Insipid Joe Biden with no policy agenda or enthusiasm. The insanely strong polarization of the nation.

No. It doesn’t make sense. In fact, it’s pure nonsense.

Cope

[Landslide Lyndon]

Stop feeding the troll.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I mean, this poll is clearly an outlier.  But it is an outlier that suggests that all those Biden +12 polls are NOT outliers.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What is with all these polls being so cucked this cycle?

Hmm... maybe there’s a lot of people who don’t like Trump?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I mean, this poll is clearly an outlier.  But it is an outlier that suggests that all those Biden +12 polls are NOT outliers.

This is the correct interpretation.

[Horus]

I wish.

[BobbieMac]

Opinium have a very good track record in the UK.

And before you think it will be biased because its the Guardian, they regularly polled massive Tory leads in 2019 and Boris got his landslide.

[Hammy]

All these +12, +14, +17 polls are going to lead to Dems having a meltdown on Election Night as if Biden lost, when the election ends up +6 to +8.

Opinium have a very good track record in the UK.

UK/Canadian pollsters don't have a good track record with US elections--they often end up over-correcting in one direction or another.

[ON Progressive]

I wish.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

You really believe these polls? lol gtfo

Triggered!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Silver's thoughts:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1316165171744825344

[skbl17]

Was Opinium the pollster that did particularly well in the 2017 general election (projected a conservative win but a much closer result than other pollsters)?  Or am I thinking of another?

And if so, how did they fare in the more recent one?

From what I recall, in 2017, YouGov's MRP model (seat-by-seat breakdown) was the only one to call the actual outcome - a hung parliament but with the Conservatives as the largest party - but Survation was the only one to get the national popular vote number close to correct in their final pre-election poll (Conservative +1%, actual result Conservative +2.5%). Opinium was off by about 4.5 points (Conservative +7%).

FWIW, YouGov also has a model for this year's presidential election (currently Biden 363, Trump 175, Biden +8.7%). They also ran a model for 2016 (Clinton +3.8%, actual NPV number Clinton +2.1%), which they self-critique here. I don't know if it was MRP though.

In 2019, Opinium was very close to the exact result (Conservative +12%, actual result Conservative +11.5%).

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is there any chance that American pollsters are unprepared for the historically huge turn-out and might underestimate Democrats?

[Kalimantan]

There's a lot of talk on here about people voting along the lines of their social class, of their friends, families and neighbours, which I've no doubt there is truth and is the cause of much of the polarisation we see.

Thing with that is, if attitudes really start to shift, that will drag other people in the same social circles with them, and could very conceivably lead to results like this.