Siena College-NY-22: Biden+1

[WD]

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/cny/2020/10/brindisi-surges-ahead-of-tenney-in-house-race-siena-college-syracusecom-poll.html

Biden 45
Trump 44

House Race:
Brindisi  48
Tenney 39

[Ferguson97]

Lol went to Trump by 15 points in 2016

[LimoLiberal]

Upstate NY looks to be seeing one of the largest leftward swings in the country.

[It’s so Joever]

Upstate NY looks to be seeing one of the largest leftward swings in the country.

Yep, it’s the New England effect.

[Splash]

This makes me wonder how Stefanik is fairing in NY-21.

[Alben Barkley]

At this rate, the NY map is gonna look more like Gillibrand 2012 or Schumer 2016 than Trump 2016.

[NOVA Green]

Uni Poll of a CD, but still I'll take it.

Binghampton New York, (Broome County)  has a really high % of Catholic & Irish Ancestry...

This will be a classic Obama-Trump massive swing County.

Utica, New York (Oneida County) is a bit more complicated and has a much more complicated tapestry when it comes to Ancestry, ethnicity, and country of origin. It is still a factory town, but overall is still one of the largest centers within the district, naturally will influence surrounding regions of the County...

Totally buy the concept that this district shares the characteristics of a "Flip CD at the PRES level"...

We have seen similar data from many other similar districts, and the concept of the top-lines might well match multiple other observations from various National & State polls.

[wbrocks67]

This makes me wonder how Stefanik is fairing in NY-21.

but people told me that race was Titanium R

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This makes me wonder how Stefanik is fairing in NY-21.

but people told me that race was Titanium R

It.....Is
Tenney is a bad candidate.
As you all know I'm pretty optimistic but you can't possibly think Stefanik is beatable

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Upstate NY looks to be seeing one of the largest leftward swings in the country.

Upstate's been an underrated swingy region for a while now. If I'm not mistaken, it voted narrowly for Bush, then easily for Bush, then easily for Obama, then narrowly for Obama, then yuge for Trump. The only reason its elasticity isn't discussed more is because the state as a whole is titanium D because of the city.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Biden's definitely not winning here but LOL @ the idiots who run the NRCC for not stopping Tenney

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

For Syracuse.com
September 27 - October 4
383 likely voters
MoE: 5%

Other 4%

Trump won NY-22 54%-39% in 2016.

[Calthrina950]

Upstate NY looks to be seeing one of the largest leftward swings in the country.

Upstate's been an underrated swingy region for a while now. If I'm not mistaken, it voted narrowly for Bush, then easily for Bush, then easily for Obama, then narrowly for Obama, then yuge for Trump. The only reason its elasticity isn't discussed more is because the state as a whole is titanium D because of the city.

Obama easily won upstate New York both times-I recall reading somewhere that he would have still won New York State by 10% without New York City. But otherwise, you're correct.

This makes me wonder how Stefanik is fairing in NY-21.

She still won by 14% in 2018, so I don't think she's vulnerable. It's probably accurate to call her race Likely R at this juncture.

[Pollster]

Biden's 45% here is essentially a consolidation of the 46% that didn't vote for Trump in 2016. Another example of margins being deceiving (and a sign of how united the anti-Trump vote is this year).

[Sol]

Upstate NY looks to be seeing one of the largest leftward swings in the country.

Upstate's been an underrated swingy region for a while now. If I'm not mistaken, it voted narrowly for Bush, then easily for Bush, then easily for Obama, then narrowly for Obama, then yuge for Trump. The only reason its elasticity isn't discussed more is because the state as a whole is titanium D because of the city.

It's worth noting that a lot of Upstate actually outright swung to Obama in 2012:

[AGA]

And people thought Brindisi was dead on arrival, lol.

[Horus]

And people thought Brindisi was dead on arrival, lol.

Tbf many thought Republicans would be smart enough to not nominate Tenney again.

[Figueira]

Upstate NY looks to be seeing one of the largest leftward swings in the country.

Upstate's been an underrated swingy region for a while now. If I'm not mistaken, it voted narrowly for Bush, then easily for Bush, then easily for Obama, then narrowly for Obama, then yuge for Trump. The only reason its elasticity isn't discussed more is because the state as a whole is titanium D because of the city.

I thought Upstate voted for Gore and Kerry?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Upstate NY looks to be seeing one of the largest leftward swings in the country.

Upstate's been an underrated swingy region for a while now. If I'm not mistaken, it voted narrowly for Bush, then easily for Bush, then easily for Obama, then narrowly for Obama, then yuge for Trump. The only reason its elasticity isn't discussed more is because the state as a whole is titanium D because of the city.

I thought Upstate voted for Gore and Kerry?

Gore and Kerry won New York outside the city, but narrowly enough that I always assumed it was their strong performances in Long Island and Westchester that made the difference. I could be wrong.

[lfromnj]

Upstate NY looks to be seeing one of the largest leftward swings in the country.

Upstate's been an underrated swingy region for a while now. If I'm not mistaken, it voted narrowly for Bush, then easily for Bush, then easily for Obama, then narrowly for Obama, then yuge for Trump. The only reason its elasticity isn't discussed more is because the state as a whole is titanium D because of the city.

I thought Upstate voted for Gore and Kerry?

Gore and Kerry won New York outside the city, but narrowly enough that I always assumed it was their strong performances in Long Island and Westchester that made the difference. I could be wrong.

Nope Kerry won NY outside the city even without those 3 counties. Infact even you extend it to north of Ulster he still wins NY by 1% Gore did too by a few points.


https://redraw-america.github.io/

Thanks heatcharger