Why do people here think that the GOP won't win again until 2032?

[Common Sense Atlantan]

Seriously there seems to be some strange common agreement of this. I don't understand it at all.

[brucejoel99]

Because it doesn't look like they're ditching Trumpism anytime soon. Look at the 2024 speculation: it's his sh*tty kids, Pence, Cotton, Hawley, & Tucker. If those are the candidates they're thinking of putting up against the likes of Biden or Harris, then they're gonna be getting their asses kicked at the ballot box a couple times before they realize they need to reform themselves, & many don't see that realistically happening until 2032 (or 2028 at the earliest).

[Tartarus Sauce]

Interesting, I wasn't aware this was the precise election cycle people were predicting it would take until before the GOP got back on its feet, although I have contemplated this scenario myself. It certainly would be about as ideal a "tactical defeat" for Democrats as possible considering current trends and alignments, if they held on until that point, would make a GOP presidential midterm in 2034 a potential bloodbath on the scale of 2010 taking into account the senate and gubernatorial seats that would be up that year.

[GeorgeBFree]

I only think the 2032 calls are right if Trump wins this year.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

The Dunning-Kruger effect. A bunch of teenagers and young adults on an Internet forum feel they can with confidence predict political victories over the next 12 years because they read a handful of 538 and/or Wikipedia articles.

[Mister Mets]

Recency bias.

Part of it is also a belief that the willingness of swing states to go for Trump over Hillary Clinton somehow reflects worse on Republicans than on the party that lost.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Texas.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

America is going to fall in love with Kamala, of course.

[Hope For A New Era]

Well, that's what happened after 1980, isn't it?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Its the 1980 scenario playing out basically.

2024 - Back to basics base Republican candidate or a hardcore Trumpist gets nominated and gets destroyed
2028 - Reasonable Republican Governor with a good background, experience and pitch makes some gains but falls short.
2032 - The stars finally align for Republicans to win the White House again.


Its only of many possible scenarios but even with that as a baseline, a big variable is when is the next recession/economic problem and what is it manifesting as in terms of impacts. Another is any FP issues or scandals that could cripple the administration is also a factor that could short circuit this timeline.

[dw93]

I think they have a chance in 2024 with the right candidate to be honest. The next term could prove to be a tough one and Biden likely isn't gonna run, making 2024 an open election.

[Ferguson97]

I think whoever wins in 2024 wins re-election tbh, Harris or Republican.

[DC Al Fine]

Its the 1980 scenario playing out basically.

2024 - Back to basics base Republican candidate or a hardcore Trumpist gets nominated and gets destroyed
2028 - Reasonable Republican Governor with a good background, experience and pitch makes some gains but falls short.
2032 - The stars finally align for Republicans to win the White House again.


Its only of many possible scenarios but even with that as a baseline, a big variable is when is the next recession/economic problem and what is it manifesting as in terms of impacts. Another is any FP issues or scandals that could cripple the administration is also a factor that could short circuit this timeline.

Yes, those are very big ifs. Too many projections leave no room for Events. Looking at old Atlas threads confirms this. Projections from say, 2005, missed the financial crisis, a 1999 one would miss 9/11 etc, to say nothing of all the trends we got wrong.

Things certainly don't look good for the GOP in the short to medium term, but like you said, in four years we could all be talking about Biden's failed COVID recovery and how much Kamala is going to lose by. *shrug*

[Agonized-Statism]

Arguably, the Republicans were and still are in the wilderness after 2008, with the religious right and the neocons firmly discredited. Had they lost 2016 as people were expecting, they could have developed a winning strategy for the 2020s. The Trump administration has strongly claimed the party and its brand for the populists- the GOP's core constituency, rural whites- which puts them at a mathematical disadvantage in very important states going forward. They needed to be competitive in the suburbs. The population is younger, more non-white, and more urban than in 2016, and only becoming more so with each passing year, so it'll be much harder to pull off narrow wins on reduced turnout like that again.

Trump's coalition isn't sustainable. He didn't end up doing anything. There's no wall, Hillary's not locked up, we're not out of the Middle East. His movement was gambling on him being some kind of great reformer and he wasn't. Most voters see no reason to realign to the Republicans. The winning path would have been speaking to all working-class Americans- fair trade and all that, while also embracing comprehensive immigration reform and investing in Hispanics. That GOP could have been carrying both the Southwest and the Midwest in the 2020s. Some people in the Trump movement want to go that way, but it's too late now. The brand is tarnished.

[Orser67]

Because Republicans have miserable support with Millennials and Gen Zers, two generations that are only going to become more important, and have also possibly done long-term damage with white voters over 45. At the same time, Republicans are chained to largely unpopular policies and an angry base that nominates poor candidates like Trump who have little appeal except to white conservatives.

American politics is cyclical and I have little doubt that Republicans will attain presidential success at some point in the future, but I think there's a good chance that it will take them longer than usual to get back into power. And historically, it's not especially unusual for one party to win three straight presidential elections (it happened four times in the 20th century alone, counting the Republican streak that started in 1896 and ended in 1908).

[Roronoa D. Law]

1.Urban-Rural Divide. Democrats increasing their margin in suburban areas in Midwest will allow places like MN and MI to not venture off like MO and IN.

2. Lack of message and legislative proposals. The GOP really is the permanent opposition party in America. There has been no major proposal from the GOP on healthcare, immigration, criminal justice, or even any major public works.

3. Oh and its primary electoral is its own worse enemy.

[Suburbia]

They won't win until 2028, at least

Cotton or Tucker or Pence is a loss in 2024

Hawley can win

[Senator Incitatus]

It's possible, but I think it's mostly a complete misunderstanding of what the country wants. "Trumpism" (nationalism, anti-immigration, anti-trade, America First foreign policy) is far more popular than Donald Trump, and a candidate running on his platform without his personality can easily win in 2024. (Particularly if he loses next week.)

A Republican candidate who would openly criticize capital (and capitalism) could crush Biden or Harris, whereas a Paul Ryan back-to-basics type would be in a struggle at best.

[indietraveler]

I think the best chance for republicans is if Biden declares 1 term and they're up against Kamala in 2024.

Otherwise I think there's a good chance it could be until 2032, especially if the party remains Trump-lite. By 2028 the oldest millennials will be in their late 40s and so far have proven they aren't becoming more conservative as they age (for the most part). By then nearly all of Gen Z will be of voting age.