Innovative Research Group: Biden +5%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/CTM-and-USTM-2009-Full-Deck-10092020.pdf

September 29 - October 6
2435 registered voters

Biden 47%
Trump 42%
Would not vote/none 2%
Other 1%
Undecided/don't know 9%

[WD]

Why are they only polling RVs less than 30 days out?

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm, have they polled before?

Really think the Biden +10-15 stuff is live caller nonresponse bias, but he's still leading by 5-10 as always this year.

[Rand]

[Skill and Chance]

LOL so Trump wins the PV and Biden wins the EC in this poll if it closes 5-7%.

[afleitch]

This poll is fascinating. Read the whole thing. It's giving voting patterns on a wide degree of 'attitudes' too. Especially cultural v economic alienation.

[Gass3268]

"This is a representative sample. However, since the online survey was not a random probability based sample, a margin of error cannot be calculated. Statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates do not apply to most online panels."

I'm pretty sure most legit online polls give margin of errors.

[BlueSwan]

This poll is fascinating. Read the whole thing. It's giving voting patterns on a wide degree of 'attitudes' too. Especially cultural v economic alienation.

Agreed. Ignore the topline, there’s lots of good stuff in that report.

[Tender Branson]

Canadian and British pollsters must be completely bored because they are constantly polling the US.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

When you still have a partial shutdown and no end in sight to the partial shutdown, no Covid relief bill due to Trump signing a CR instead of combination of the two, you're gonna get foreign countries see how much damage to Prez Trump

[Pollster]

"This is a representative sample. However, since the online survey was not a random probability based sample, a margin of error cannot be calculated. Statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates do not apply to most online panels."

I'm pretty sure most legit online polls give margin of errors.

Online panel polls give a "confidence interval" which is like a margin of error and calculated in a similar way, but "margins of error" apply only to true probability-based samples in which every member of the sampled population has an equal chance of being selected to participate.