I'm going to be an optimist and go with Minnesota and Michigan. Minnesota and Michigan are both more friendly in off-years.
As for Stabenow, she is not a strong incumbent at all and IF the primary winner has a good campaign going and destroys her faux-populist campaign we got it.
As for Jersey, we always seem to get our hopes up there, and always seem to crash and burn there.
Anthing is possible, I suppose, but I think you are really reaching if you think Michigan is competitive, especially with this national environment for the GOP.
I think it's more anti-incumbent than anti-GOP. Democrats aren't well liked either right now - and Bush isn't on the ballot here, Granholm is.
It'll take a helluva campaign, but it could be done.