NC-11: Shuler (D) 46%, Taylor (R) 42%

[Adlai Stevenson]

Hayes, Taylor ailing?

Republicans are beginning to worry over two of their congressmen -- Robin Hayes and Charles Taylor -- whose polling numbers continue to fall.

Public Policy Polling of Raleigh found that voters in the 11th Congressional District prefer Democrat Heath Shuler over Taylor by a 46 percent to 42 percent margin. The survey of 687 likely voters was conducted May 22 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Also showing Taylor's support slipping is a survey by Anzalone Liszt Research, Shuler's pollster, which shows Shuler up 45 percent to 43 percent in a survey taken May 9 to 13.

Stuart Rothenberg, an analyst who writes for Roll Call magazine in Washington, says the Taylor/Shuler race may be "the best evidence that the national GOP meltdown is affecting individual Republicans."

President Bush's popularity has fallen sharply in the district, and Taylor's numbers are following.

Hayes, the Concord Republican in the 8th Congressional District, has also seen his support drop, according to polls. Hayes faces Democrat Larry Kissell, who lives in Biscoe in Montgomery County, in the November election.

http://www.newsobserver.com/659/story/444750.html

[WalterMitty]

hayes will pull through.

taylor may lose though.

[Alcon]

Public Policy Polling's web site implies that it is a Democratic pollster.

[Sam Spade]

The Hayes poll (NC-08) referenced by the OP was your classic partisan poll.  I don't remember where the results are and who exactly conducted the poll, but it indicated Hayes was only ahead by 6 or 7, 43% or 44% to 37%, against the non-entity running against her.

It was enough for me to consider putting the race in Watch, but nothing else.

The PPP poll is here. 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/webPPP_Survey_052406.pdf

Alcon is right about the pollster normally working for Democrats.  However, the pollster in the newspaper that released it (which I also can't remember) insisted that it was not paid for by the Shuler campaign.

However, I personally believe it's a push poll.  Why? 

Because of the policy questions that are asked before asking the horse race question.  It is very sly, but classic push poll technique.

[Republican Michigander]

I think Hayes will survive, but I had my eye on the Taylor/Shuler race for a long time. Taylor may have finally made one too many mistakes.

[Sam Spade]

I think Hayes will survive, but I had my eye on the Taylor/Shuler race for a long time. Taylor may have finally made one too many mistakes.

Hayes' opponent is a serious non-entity (and I mean serious).  If his CD is in trouble, you can count on the GOP losing 25+ seats in the House, minimum.  Probably more like 30+.

And if I took that poll seriously, that's where my predictions would be heading right now.

[WalterMitty]

I think Hayes will survive, but I had my eye on the Taylor/Shuler race for a long time. Taylor may have finally made one too many mistakes.

Hayes' opponent is a serious non-entity (and I mean serious).  If her CD is in trouble, you can count on the GOP losing 25+ seats in the House, minimum.  Probably more like 30+.

And if I took that poll seriously, that's where my predictions would be heading right now.

robin hayes=male.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Taylor's a good pick for the Phil Crane of 2006.

[Sam Spade]

Taylor's a good pick for the Phil Crane of 2006.

Taylor could be a good pick for losing like Crane, except in 2004 Phil Crane's race was not even on the radar at this point in the Congressional, so it really doesn't compare in that light.  Most pundits had it rated at Safe R, a few had it at Likely R.  Most pundits now have Taylor at Likely R or Lean R.

I'll try to think up a good one that matches Crane, I'll need to re-look over the list.

This is more for informational purposes, but Taylor's typical MO is to do nothing (and I mean absolutely nothing) until about 4-6 weeks before the election and then saturate the CD with his own personal money and blanket the airwaves with advertising.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Crane was ignored by non-partisan watch sites for the most part, but he wasn't by the grassroots. DU and DailyKos had plenty of fundraising memos for Bean that I remember, and even on this forum I heard some people saying Crane was weak and saw one on some maps someone made of winnable House seats for both parties of there being 1 vulnerable Republican in Illinois. Of course all the fundraising the liberal activist groups did against him was one of the things that took him down, but obviously someone saw that he was vulnerable initially. There were no polls though, so it's probably not the best comparison.