Duval County (St. Pete Polls): Biden +1.5

[Tender Branson]

48.1% Joe Biden
46.6% Donald Trump

This was Trump +1.4, Gillum +4.4 and Nelson +1.7

This poll of 749 likely Duval County, Florida voters was conducted on September 24, 2020. This poll used the registered voter lists supplied by the state of Florida as of August 4th, 2020. The sample of voters that were contacted included random samples of registered voters within the boundaries of Duval County, Florida. The issues surveyed included questions related to the November election in Duval County, Florida

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_DUVALGEN_September24_V9BD3.pdf

[VAR]

DeSantis approval: 51/41 (+10)
Mayor Curry approval: 43/39 (+4)

[Pericles]

Yikes that's not a very good poll for Biden, and Duval County isn't very Hispanic either. Still, the average does suggest Biden is up in Florida, and the election as a whole certainly looks very good for him.

[DaleCooper]

Not a good poll for Biden but I never really expected him to be winning by several points here.

[Woody]

If this is true, then Trump is going to win Florida.

[Brittain33]

If this is true, then Trump is going to win Florida.

It’s literally a 3 point swing to Biden in a state Trump won by 1.2 points. Plus, this pollster already has Biden winning the state by 3 points.

[Woody]

If this is true, then Trump is going to win Florida.

It’s literally a 3 point swing to Biden in a state Trump won by 1.2 points.

That's not going to be enough to counter the swing for Trump in the southern part of the state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, Trump is gonna win FL, if Biden is only up 5 in PA, he isn't up 9 nationally in the polls, he is probably up 3-5 pts.


Polls are for poll watching anyways, the media wants you to pay attention, that's it

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

If this is true, then Trump is going to win Florida.

It’s literally a 3 point swing to Biden in a state Trump won by 1.2 points.

That's not going to be enough to counter the swing for Trump in the southern part of the state.

I'm inclined to agree.  IF (and that's a big if because *polling*) the trends in Miami-Dade are accurate, Biden needs to win Duval by at least a hair more than this to win the state.  It's not going to take much -- Trump's support has apparently waned with other groups in Florida, but yeah, he needs to squeeze just a tad more out of this county.  

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

sadly i have to agree with the village idiot in this thread, i think he’s right on this one unfortunately

[Buzz]

Duvaaaaaaaaal!  Great poll for Trump.  Florida has been looking better for a while now.

[Ferguson97]

sadly i have to agree with the village idiot in this thread, i think he’s right on this one unfortunately

I guess Titanium Tilt R wasn't a meme

[Use Your Illusion]

Biden doesn't have to crush Duval to win FL. If he wins Seminole county too that might be all the edge he needs given his gains amongst seniors and the fact he's liable to perform better in the greater Tampa Bay area than HRC did. Duval at 1.5% and flipping Seminole basically means "toss-up" as opposed to anything certain for Biden. And that's exactly FL, in a nutshell, any day.


This is coming from Atlas' BIGGEST pessimist who still lives in 2016. Deep breaths. This isn't bad

[Chips]

Eh, FL would still be very close assuming that's the margin.

[Brittain33]

If this is true, then Trump is going to win Florida.

It’s literally a 3 point swing to Biden in a state Trump won by 1.2 points.

That's not going to be enough to counter the swing for Trump in the southern part of the state.

But then the swing for Trump is already needed to counter the swing to Biden among white seniors all over the state.

It may be that Biden loses Florida. But it won’t be because he isn’t turbocharging Duval county alone, and this poll is in the right spot.

[Woody]

sadly i have to agree with the village idiot in this thread, i think he’s right on this one unfortunately

Glad to see we're on the same page 😎

[Alben Barkley]

Decimals in a county level poll? And people are actually taking it seriously?

Yikes.

[DrScholl]

If this is true, then Trump is going to win Florida.

It’s literally a 3 point swing to Biden in a state Trump won by 1.2 points.

That's not going to be enough to counter the swing for Trump in the southern part of the state.

There isn't going to be a swing for him. Not paying taxes has ended any hope of an already impossible comeback.

[MplsDem]

If this is true, then Trump is going to win Florida.

It’s literally a 3 point swing to Biden in a state Trump won by 1.2 points.

That's not going to be enough to counter the swing for Trump in the southern part of the state.

There isn't going to be a swing for him. Not paying taxes has ended any hope of an already impossible comeback.

I kinda doubt that not paying taxes will be a huge issue in a state with no income tax.

[Alben Barkley]

If this is true, then Trump is going to win Florida.

It’s literally a 3 point swing to Biden in a state Trump won by 1.2 points.

That's not going to be enough to counter the swing for Trump in the southern part of the state.

There isn't going to be a swing for him. Not paying taxes has ended any hope of an already impossible comeback.

I kinda doubt that not paying taxes will be a huge issue in a state with no income tax.

They pay federal income taxes though. Trump as officially a Florida Man himself now I guess doesn’t have to pay state income taxes anymore, though that’s never been the issue.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

If this poll is accurate, it's a 3 point swing to Biden. I am not sure how this is a bad sign for him given Trump only won FL by less than 2 percentage points in 2016.

[Badger]

The last few presidential elections Duval has consistently voted couple points to the right of the state as a whole, while last time it voted only nominally more Republican than the Statewide results. There's no reason to assume Duval will vote anymore than about the same as the statewide results. Sure I'd like this to be a bigger lead, but the fact is showing him ahead at all and a traditional tilt R county is not a bad sign.

[republican1993]

De Santis lost Duval by 5 points and still won

[DrScholl]

If this is true, then Trump is going to win Florida.

It’s literally a 3 point swing to Biden in a state Trump won by 1.2 points.

That's not going to be enough to counter the swing for Trump in the southern part of the state.

There isn't going to be a swing for him. Not paying taxes has ended any hope of an already impossible comeback.

I kinda doubt that not paying taxes will be a huge issue in a state with no income tax.

They still have to pay federal income tax and it's the principle. People who work harder than he does pay more taxes than he does.

[Bojack Horseman]

How the actual f(inks) is DeSantis’ approval rating above water?