2020 Wisconsin Election Preview: Regional and County Breakdown - Recent Blog Posts

[Gass3268]

Just an FYI that this series is not dead, but I am currently in the process of cross posting it into a blog (Badger State Elections) that I can then put out on Twitter. After realizing I wrote over 10,000 words for the first seven installments I decided I wanted to get more exposure for the work I did. I made some edits to the Southeast and Milwaukee County regions posts above to add some of the new information I added to the blog posts and more edits will be coming to the other regions as I post those to my blog. I hope to have my entry here for Southwest Wisconsin posted this weekend.

[Gass3268]

Here’s a question I wonder...I wonder if Columbia will start to move left over time? Madison seems to be growing more towards the northern suburbs, as Waunakee, Windsor, Sun Prairie, and Deforest have been adding a lot of people and are right on 39/51 and 151. As Madison continues to grow, cities on the highways will probably add more people (which seems to help Portage, Poynette, and Columbus more) than other areas.

That's an interesting question. In some ways it already has as you only have to back to 2004 when John Kerry won the state while losing Columbia County. As you pointed out, a large chunk of the growth in Dane County is in the northeastern suburbs of Madison. In fact, the City of Madison's future growth strategy involves annexing areas in that direction south of Sun Prairie and north of Cottage Grove. If that growth spills over I would expect Columbus to be the first place it happens, with Lodi, Poynette and Arlington being next. Portage is a bit too far away in my opinion.

[Gass3268]

Southwest Wisconsin

Counties: Crawford, Grant, Juneau, La Crosse, Lafayette, Monroe, Richland, and Vernon
2019 Population: 323,265 (5.55%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 5.20%
July 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 177,296 (5.20% of state total)
Race and Ethnicity: 91.94% White, 2.61% Hispanic, 2.17% Asian, 1.43% Black, 1.30% 2+
Ancestry: 42.26% German, 16.05% Norwegian, 13.34% Irish, 7.11% English, Polish 4.60%
Median Income: $50,363
Post-Secondary Degree Attainment: 35.3%

Southwest Wisconsin is the quintessential Driftless Area region. Every single county that makes up this region is either fully or partially in the Driftless Area. The Driftless area is a region in the Midwest of the United States of America that escaped the flattening effects of the last Ice Age. This area extends out of the state of Wisconsin and also into northwestern Illinois, northeastern Iowa, and southwestern Minnesota. This has resulted in a geography that is not as flat as the surrounding areas with ridges, bluffs, deep river valleys, and karst geology.

As a political area it gained much notoriety in the late 2000’s as an area of the country were Democrats were still winning rural voters. However, outside of George H.W. Bush’s total collapse across the state of Iowa in 1988 due to the Farm Crisis, this region as a whole did not start voting for Democrats until Clinton in 1992 and 1996. Before that this area was predominately Republican, outside of a few areas.

Back to just Wisconsin, the southern part of the Southwest region was initially settled heavily at by miners who came from the Upper South (Kentucky, Missouri Tennessee, Virginia) and Cornwall, England. They came to mine the Lead and Zinc that was prevalent in the area. Many of the miners didn’t spend the time to construct shelters and instead just burrowed holes into the hillsides to live. This earned the miners the nickname “badgers,” which in turn lead to Wisconsin taking on the identity of the “Badger State.”

These Southern migrants brought with them their Democratic voting tendencies and this region was a Democratic stronghold early on. The northern part of this region was settled a bit later than the southern part and when it did Germans came like they did throughout the rest of the state (including the southern part of this region), but there were also Norwegians. Norwegians supported Republicans up to 1930’s before starting a transition to the Democratic Party.

Looking at the Southwest region today, it is a very white region. Only the Western Northwoods region is whiter. It is also more German, Irish, and especially Norwegian than the rest of the state. The median income and college degree attainment percentages are also below that of the state.

One could argue that Juneau County does not belong in this region. Depending on one’s definition of the Driftless Area, Juneau might only partially be in this region. However, I did not want the East Central region to cross the Wisconsin River. As previously mentioned, the vast majority of the Madison Exurbs region could have been included here, but their proximity to the state capital makes them different enough to warrant their own region. There is also of question of where the northern boundary of this region should be as every county in the North Central Wisconsin region, but Dunn, is at least partially in the Driftless Area. I came to the conclusion that combined that region would have been too big.I decided to have one region that was more orientated towards a mix of La Crosse and the Wisconsin River and another that was more influenced by the lower Chippewa River, Eau Claire, and the Trempealeau River.

PVI: D+1
Presidential Margin: Obama (08) +21% -> Obama (08) +14% -> Trump +4%
2018 Margins: Baldwin +15% -> Evers +4%

Like the Southeast Wisconsin region, this was a region where Obama dominated in both of his elections for President, but especially 2008. Trump’s eighteen-point swing here in 2016 was shocking to say the least. Clinton lost ground almost everywhere in this region, except for the areas immediately surrounding the City of La Crosse. Evers did much better than Clinton did, recovering a lot of lost ground, even though Scott Walker had previously won this region against Mary Burke in 2014. However, unlike the Southeast Wisconsin region, this is a region that Biden needs to win if he wants to win Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes.

Crawford County


2019 Population: 16,131 (0.28%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 0.25%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 8,776 (0.26% of the state)
PVI: D+2
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +6%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Evers +4%
2018 Senate Margin: Baldwin +18%
Municipalities: City of Prairie du Chien (5,572) Clinton +1%

Trump became the first Republican since 1984 to win Crawford County and possibly more concerning for Democrats was that Walker did better here in 2018 than he did 2014. That said this is a county were Biden probably needs to get a win in order to win statewide, unless he’s getting really good margins somewhere else in the state. The Town of Freeman in the northwest part of the county is the entity to look at when results start coming in. It was very close to the statewide margin in 2016 and in both of the major 2018 contests. If Biden is winning the towns around Prairie du Chien, he is probably winning big statewide, while Trump would love to take the remaining towns that he failed to win in the northeast corner of the county.

Grant County


2019 Population: 51,439 (0.88%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 0.78%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 26,217 (0.77% of the state)
PVI: R+1
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +10%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Evers +1%
2018 Senate Margin: Baldwin +9%
Municipalities: City of Platteville (12,087) D+9%

What’s interesting looking at Grant County is how Trump won it by almost nine points more than he won the state, but then in 2018 it is close to matching the margin for both major statewide races. This could be a bellwether county come November, but I hesitate to say that given just how big Trump’s margin was here. The place to look on election day would be the Town of Platteville as it was pretty close to the county’s margin in 2018. Winner her probably wins the county. If Biden is getting good results in the Milwaukee area, Trump will need this county more than Biden will. If Biden is not doing as well as Clinton around Milwaukee, then he might need to pull out a win here in order to win statewide. Biden will be on pace for a big win if he can win a majority of towns on the eastern boundary of the county like Baldwin. Trump’s goal here will be to win every town and municipality, an accomplishment he nearly achieved in 2016.

Juneau County


2019 Population: 26,687 (0.46%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 0.39%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 13,458 (0.39% of the state total)
PVI: R+7
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +27%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +15%
2018 Senate Margin: Vukmir +8%
Municipalities: City of Mauston (4,355) Trump +11%

Juneau County has been a national bellwether in Presidential elections, going for the nationwide winning candidate every election year since 1964. However, I expect that streak to be in jeopardy if Biden wins, as this county has moved hard to right. No statewide Democrat or liberal Supreme Court nominee has won this county since Obama in 2012. The goal for Biden here would be to just see the margin get closer to what Evers got, while Trump would love to expand his lead out to thirty points. When the results come in, I would look to the City of Mauston, the largest city in the county, as in 2018 it was close to the statewide margin for both races. If Biden is winning big statewide, he should also be winning a couple towns here such as Lindina, Lyndon, and maybe Seven Mile Creek. Trump will want to replicate his countywide sweep from 2016 and continue push those margins up.

La Crosse County


2019 Population: 118,016 (2.03%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 2.14%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 72,200 (2.11% of the state total)
PVI: D+5
2016 Presidential Margin: Clinton +10%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Evers +15%
2018 Senate Margin: Baldwin +26%
Municipalities:  City of La Crosse (51,227) Clinton  D+28%, City of Onalaska (18,943) Clinton +5%, Village of Holmen (10,034) Clinton +1%

La Crosse County is a place where I expect Biden to improve on Clinton’s 2016 margin. Every election since 2016 the Democratic or liberal candidate has won here by at least 5 points better than Clinton did, many times 15-20 points better. It feels like this is a county that will continue to move to the left. The Town of Washington in the southeast corner of the county is where I would look when the returns come in. Clinton lost it by about three points in 2016, while both Evers and Baldwin won it in 2018, with Evers winning it by close to his statewide margin. Biden would love to match or exceed Baldwin’s results of winning every municipality and town except four. Trump on the other had would love to take some of the towns around the City of La Crosse like Campbell or Melody.

Lafayette County


2019 Population: 16,665 (0.29%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 0.25%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 8,727 (0.26% of the state total)
PVI: R+0
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +9%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +3%
2018 Senate Margin: Baldwin +11%
Municipalities: City of Darlington (2,337) Clinton +5%

Another county that should be close, but as Evers showed in 2018, it does not have to be part of a winning collation for a Democrat. Trump probably has to win here in order to win statewide. I would look to the Town of Argyle in the northeast corner of the county in November. It was the only additional town that Evers added on in Lafayette County compared to Hillary in 2016. Biden will be on his way to a big statewide win if he’s winning additional towns like Belmont, Lamont, Shullsburg, and Wiota. Trump would like to pick off some of the municipalities he failed to win in 2016 like the City of Darlington or the Village of Gratiot.

Monroe County


2019 Population: 46,253 (0.79%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 0.65%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 22,707 (0.66% of the state total)
PVI: R+8
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +23%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +15%
2018 Senate Margin: Vukmir +2%
Municipalities: City of Sparta (9,832) Trump +7%, City of Tomah (9,397) Trump +16%

For the longest time this was the most Republican county in the Southwest region. However, recently it appears that Juneau County has moved to the right of Monroe County, while Monroe County might be moving a smidge to the center as Baldwin almost won here. One reason for that is there are two decent sized cities here that if Democrats are doing well statewide, they tend to win. The one in particular you should be paying attention to come election day is the City of Sparta. Clinton lost here by seven points, but Evers won here by a point and Baldwin by fifteen. Things are going really well for Biden if he wins the City of Tomah. Trump would like to replicate the sweep he had here in 2016, but with expanded margins.

Richland County


2019 Population: 17,252 (0.30%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 0.27%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 9,224 (0.27% of the state total)
PVI: D+1
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +6%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Evers +5%
2018 Senate Margin: Clinton +15%
Municipalities: City of Richland Center (4,951) Clinton +3%

Biden probably needs to win Richland County in order to win statewide. George W. Bush won this county twice despite losing Wisconsin twice. Since then however, Democrats don’t win statewide without winning this county. The place to focus in on when votes come in is the Town of Buena Vista in the southeast part of the county on the Wisconsin River. The margin here was close to the statewide margin in both 2018 races. Biden will be doing really well if he’s winning a majority of the towns in the county, while Trump would love to take the two towns that Clinton won in 2016 (Henrietta and Richwood).

Vernon County



2019 Population: 30,822 (0.53%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 0.48%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 16,530 (0.48% of the state total)
PVI: D+1
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +5%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Evers +2%
2018 Senate Margin: Baldwin +16%
Municipalities: City of Viroqua (4,402) Clinton +14%

Vernon County is the third county in this region that Biden in all likelihood needs to win in order to win statewide. Vernon County is 29.88% Norwegian and that is a demographic that Biden needs to improve on in comparison to 2016. The place to look here when results come in would be the Town of Kickapoo in the southeast corner of the county. The winning percentage was close to the percentage the statewide winner got in both 2016 and 2018. Like Richland County, Biden would be thrilled to win a majority of the towns here like Baldwin did, while Trump would look to pick off the three towns that Clinton won (Genoa, Liberty, and Webster).

[Gass3268]

I found what the two party margins for each county would have been for the 2016 Presidential Election and an average of the two big 2018 races if the result would have been a pure tie based on universal swing. I then averaged those margins together giving 2016 a 75% weight and 2018 a 25% weight to get a base. I then used universal swing to determine the two party county margin if Biden were to win by 6.4% as is currently the 538 polling average.



Sort of surprised by just how few counties flipped. The closest five counties in both direction where:

Vernon County Biden +4.15%
Door County Biden +4.12%
Crawford County Biden +3.67%
Richland County Biden +3.42%
Racine County Biden +2.12%
Winnebago County Trump +0.13%
Lafayette County Trump +0.77%
Grant County Trump +1.21%
Dunn County Trump +3.23%
Jackson County Trump +3.44%

Obviously this is not what the map will probably end up looking like, but it's a good baseline. It will be interesting to see how this changes over the campaign, plus the tied baseline will be helpfully when determining how each candidate is doing on election night.

[Gass3268]

That crazy Rassy poll raised Biden's lead to 6.9% and flipped Winnebago County in my universal swing model.

[Gass3268]

West Central Wisconsin

Counties: Buffalo, Chippewa, Dunn, Eau Claire, Jackson, Pepin, and Trempealeau
2019 Population: 285,282 (4.90%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 4.72%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 160,263 (4.69% of state totals)
Race and Ethnicity: 90.95% White, 3.08% Hispanic, 2.48% Asian, 1.16% Black, 1.40% 2+
Ancestry: 40.51% German, 19.90% Norwegian, 10.12% Irish, 7.32% Polish, 4.92% English
Median Income: $51,455
Post-Secondary Attainment: 37.0%

This region can be viewed as the northern Driftless Area region. The main population base in this region is the Eau Claire-Menomonie Combined Statistical Area (CSA). This includes Chippewa, Dunn, and Eau Claire counties. This area is also referred to as the Chippewa Valley as the Chippewa River flows though all three counties. Also included in this region are the counties that are along the Mississippi Rivers and have major Wisconsin rivers (Black, Chippewa, and Trempealeau) empty out into the Mississippi River within their borders. This includes Buffalo, Pepin, and Trempealeau counties. Finally, we include Jackson County as it makes sense from a geographical sense.

As mentioned in the entry on Southwest Wisconsin, this region could have been combined with the Southwest region to create a mega Driftless Area region. This would have been the second most populated region in the state and by far its largest in area. In short it would have been too big. The split between the two regions makes sense as there are different political, cultural, and historical characteristics between the two regions. Also, it allows us to have one region that is centered around La Crosse and the Wisconsin River and another that is centered around Eau Claire and the many major northern Wisconsin rivers that come into the Mississippi River.

A couple counties possibly could have been in other regions. Jackson County doesn’t completely fit in this county as it’s neither part of the Eau Claire-Menomonie CSA and it does not border the Mississippi River. However, due to the prominence of the Black River through the county it makes sense to group it with the county where it empties out into the Mississippi River, Trempealeau County. Chippewa County has many features that make it more in common with the Western Northwoods region, but with it being a part of not only the Eau Claire-Menomonie CSA but also the Eau Claire-Chippewa Falls Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) makes its inclusion here clear.

There is also the question of Clark, Pierce, and St. Croix counties, as all three could have been included in this region. The Black River flows through the heart of Clark County which clearly connects it with Jackson and Trempealeau counties. Yet at the same time there are four municipalities (Abbotsford, Colby, Dorchester, and Unity) that straddle the county line between Clark and Marathon, which clearly shows that Clark should be in the Central Wisconsin Region. Then there is the question of Pierce and St. Croix counties. They could definitely be included in this region as Pierce County is a Driftless Area county and there are strong connections between St. Croix County and the Eau Claire area. However, these two counties inclusion in the Minneapolis–St. Paul–Bloomington MSA makes them clearly different than any other region in the state and worthy of being their own region, which will be discussed in further in the next regional breakdown.

This region is also very white, about ten points more white than the state percentage and there is no minority group that has a higher percentage here than the state as a whole. It is also the most Norwegian region in the state at 19.9% which is almost twelve and a half points higher than that state percentage. This mixed with the slightly larger German population results in a region were Catholicism is only the largest denomination to the Evangelical Lutheran Church of America (Mainline Lutherans) by 1.38%. The is the closest Catholicism gets to being number two in one of the seventeen regions. I plan on doing a couple of supplementary articles in the future on ancestry and religion in Wisconsin and how it intersects with elections today. This region is also below the statewide median income by $3,155, but only slightly below the statewide percentage for those attaining a college degree.

Historically, this region has a varied political history. As a heavily Norwegian area it in many ways followed the political whims of that ancestry group. Early in Wisconsin’s history this region was very Republican, but more on the left side of the party. It was an early supporter of Robert M. LaFollette’s Progressive wing of the Wisconsin Republican Party. It then strongly supported the Wisconsin Progressive Party that broke off from Republicans under the leadership of LaFollette’s kids in 1934. After the Progressive’s dissolved in 1946 the region went back to supporting left leaning Republicans, but starting in the 1960’s and 1970’s this area began to move to the Democrats as the Republicans shifted to the right in the state and the Democrats to the left. Post-Kennedy, Democrats that won the state typically won this region. Just look at the county maps for Carter, Dukakis, Clinton, Gore, and Kerry.

PVI: R+1
Presidential Margins: Obama (08) +18% -> Obama (12) 9% -> Trump +7%
2018 Margins: Walker +1% | Baldwin +11%

Like the Madison Exurbs and Southwest Wisconsin regions, this was another region that saw a large shift to Trump. Obama won this region by solid margins in both of his elections, only to have Trump win it with a sixteen-point swing in 2016. What makes this region different however is, unlike the other two aforementioned regions, this one didn’t totally come back to the Democrats in 2018. Evers lost this region by a little over a point and only won Eau Claire County. Compared to Clinton, Evers did better almost everywhere, with the exception of along the Mississippi River in the southern part of the region. Baldwin on the other hand had a double-digit win and came 104 votes short of sweeping every county in the region, losing only Buffalo, Chippewa, and Pepin Counties. This large difference between Baldwin and Evers in this region and in many upcoming regions is why I am going to be including regional maps of the 2018 Senate Election from now on. In terms of 2020, this is again a region that Biden needs to improve on if he wants to win statewide, but like the Southeast Wisconsin region, it is not necessary that he wins this region. Trump would love to improve on the big swing that he got here in 2016 and push that lead up into the double-digits.

Buffalo County



2019 Population: 13,031 (0.22%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 0.23%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 7,916 (0.23% of the state total)
PVI: R+7
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +23%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +18%
2018 Senator Margin: Vukmir +0%
Municipalities: City of Mondovi (2,564) Trump +19%
Buffalo County is a rural county that borders the Mississippi River. Prior to Trump’s victory in 2020, this county was on of the top contenders to be the bellwether county for the state of Wisconsin. Since 2016 this has become a typically reliable Republican/Conservative county. The place to look here on election day would be the Village of Nelson in the northwestern part of the county. It was close to the both race’s margin in 2018 and Trump only got 50% of the vote here in 2016. Biden won’t win the county just because he’s winning the Village of Nelson, but it would be a good sign statewide. If Biden is winning the county here or getting close to Baldwin’s margins, he’s clearly in for a big win statewide. Baldwin narrowly won the Town of Buffalo in the southern tip of this county after losing it in 2012. If Biden wins there, he could be close to winning the county. Trump would love to continue to push that margin upward into the high twenties.

Chippewa County


2019 Population: 64,658 (1.11%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 1.05%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 36,172 (1.06% of the state total)
PVI: R+7
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +20%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +14%
2018 Senator Margin: Vukmir +0%
Municipalities: City of Chippewa Falls (14,366) Trump +1%
Chippewa County is a split county in terms of its personality. In the Southwest part of the county you have the City of Chippewa Falls, the Village of Lake Halie, and part of the City of Eau Claire. This area is part of the more direct urban and suburban areas around Eau Claire. It is a swingier area and typically supports the statewide winner. The rest of the county has more of rural and small-town vibe and is pretty Republican. Obama won here in 2008 but lost in 2012, even as Baldwin won the county in her first Senate election. The place to look in this county when the returns start to come in is the City of Chippewa Falls. Clinton lost here by a little under a point in 2016 and Biden will not only want to win Chippewa Falls but do so by around five points or better. Biden will be super thrilled if he can match Baldwin’s margin or even gain the few necessary votes need to win the county. If he’s winning the Village of Lake Hallie he’ll be thrilled, while Trump will want to improve on his 2016 performance by having a clean sweep of all towns and municipalities in this county.

Dunn County


2019 Population: 45,368 (0.78%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 0.72%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 24,435 (0.71% of the state total)
PVI: R+3
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +12%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +3%
2018 Senator Margin: Baldwin +6%
Municipalities: City of Menomonie (16,551) Clinton +14%
Dunn County is one of the true swing counties in this region and the state. It is home to the University of Wisconsin-Stout in the City of Menomonie, which is the official technology school of the University of Wisconsin system. It will be interesting to see if COVID-19 results in a reduction of normal turnout for a Presidential election. Biden doesn’t need to win this county to win statewide, but he would like to reduce Trump’s lead to under five points here. On election day, I would look at the Village of Elk Mound in the eastern part of the county as it flipped to both Evers and Baldwin in 2018 after going for Trump by almost nine points in 2016. Biden will be on his way to large statewide win if he’s winning this county and to do that, he needs to win a few of the towns in this county. The one I would look at is Town of Menomonie just to the west of the namesake city. Baldwin won it by close to the county’s margin. Trump would love to repeat the near sweep that he got here in 2016 and reduce Biden’s margin in the City of Menomonie down to under ten points.

Eau Claire County


2019 Population: 104,646 (1.80%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 1.74%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 61,138 (1.79% of the state total)
PVI: D+4
2016 Presidential Margin: Clinton +8%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Evers +12%
2018 Senator Margin: Baldwin +22%
Municipalities: City of Eau Claire (68,802 – Partially in Chippewa County) Clinton +18%
Eau Claire County is a lot like the La Crosse County in this region. It was the only county that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and there is a sizeable student population here with the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire. Home to the largest city in the region and eighth largest city statewide, this is county where Biden would love to push up the margin a bit more in order to bank more votes. The place I would look on election day is the City of Altoona, a suburb just to the east of the City of Eau Claire. Biden wants to match or do better than Evers’ six-point margin here as that would mean he’s winning the county by over ten points. If he’s winning any of the towns that surround Eau Claire and Altoona or all of them like Baldwin did, he’s probably getting over 60% of the vote here and winning big statewide. Trump would love it if he could flip the City of Altoona as it would indicate that he’s winning by a solid margin statewide.

Jackson County


2019 Population: 20,643 (0.35%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 0.31%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 10,603 (0.31% of state totals)
PVI: R+1
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +12%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +5%
2018 Senator Margin: Baldwin +10%
Municipalities: City of Black River Falls (3,465) Clinton +4%
Jackson County is the second of three swing counties in this region. It is a pretty rural county that was pretty consistently Democratic up until Trump’s win in 2016. This a county that Biden would like to win, but not a necessary county for him. He’d probably be fine with a narrow loss here that was slightly better than Evers’ 5-point defeat. When the returns come in, I would look at the Town of Irving in the southwest part of the state. Walker won here by just over a point. A Biden win here would result in a countywide margin around where it needs to be. Biden is in for a solid win here if he can win a place like The Town of Albion like Baldwin did, while Trump would love to continue to expand on his 2016 margin by winning the City of Black River Falls, the largest city in the county.

Pepin County


2019 Population: 7,287 (0.13%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 0.12%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 4,169 (0.12% of state totals)
PVI: R+7
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +24%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +13%
2018 Senator Margin: Vukmir 2%
Municipalities: City of Durand (1,800) Trump +26%
I mean this as no offense to anyone that is from Pepin County and has Pepin Pride, but I’m not really sure why this county exists. It could totally be merged with Buffalo County and it would still be the smallest populated county in the state. That being said this was another county that voted for Obama twice before moving sharply to the right in 2016. Trump was the first Republican to win Pepin County since 1972. Biden would be happy if he could improve a bit on Evers’ losing margin here and only lose by around 10 points. The place to look here on election day would be the Town of Pepin on the Mississippi River. Biden would be pumped with Pepin Pride (not sure if this is a thing, but it is now) if he could get close to Biden’s margin or actually win the county. To do that he’d want to win the Town of Albany and the City of Durand. Trump would be pleased if he could sweep the entire county this time by winning the Villages of Pepin and Stockholm.

Trempealeau County


2019 Population: 29,649 (0.51%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 0.46%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 15,830 (0.46% of state totals)
PVI: R+1
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +13%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +10%
2018 Senator Margin: Baldwin +7%
Municipalities: City of Arcadia (3,040) Trump +23%
Trempealeau County is the third and final swing county in this region. This is the most Norwegian County in the state and one of the swingier counties in the state. One only needs to look at the seventeen-point difference between Evers’ seven-point loss here and Baldwin’s ten-point win. Walker always performed well here, but there has to be something more going on here that I just can’t put my finger on. Vernon County in the Southwest region is only about a percent less Norwegian than Trempealeau County, but Evers won in Vernon County. So, it’s not that. If anyone is from Trempealeau County or near the near the county, I’d love to hear what your thoughts are. Biden would love it if he could narrow the margin down here to the mid-single digits. To do that he’s going to need to win in a place like the Town of Ettrick. Evers’ lost here by seven-points while Baldwin won by thirteen-points. Biden would be on his way to a major statewide win if he could win this county. To do that he’d need to win many of the towns that Baldwin did like Burnside, Doge, Hale, Pigeon, Preston, Trempealeau, and Unity. Trump would love to sweep this county by winning the three 2016 holdouts of the City of Blair and the Villages of Pigeon Falls and Strum.

[walleye26]

I wonder if Jackson may start to be entering a pattern of Democratic during Presidential years and Republican during midterms. The county has a high native population (7%) and what young kids that do live there probably don’t show up during midterms as much.

[Gass3268]

Sorry that I haven't been updating here. Having to copy and paste everything from my blog into message board posts became too difficult. Here are the blog posts of the regions I have yet to post here:

- Twin Cities Exurbs
- Central Wisconsin
- East Central Wisconsin
- Fox Cities
- Fox Valley & Thumb
- Eastern Northwoods

I hope to have the Western Northwoods posted by the end of the week.