CA-25 - Normington, Petts & Associates (D): Smith +6

[VAR]

Sep 21-23, 400 LV, MoE: 4.9%

Smith (D) 51%
Garcia (R-inc) 45%

PRES: Biden 53-45

https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/7c9798eaafd54081881797bf9a163295/files/research/CA25-Poll-092420.pdf

[wbrocks67]

Interesting. An outlier for now but I wonder if Dems/Indies come home to Smith as the election draws closer.

[Niemeyerite]

That seat belongs to the Democrats!! Wonderful poll 😊

[DrScholl]

Democrats have a voter registration advantage of 30,000 in the district so it's very unlikely that Garcia retains this seat with the presidential race at the top of the ballot.

[VAR]

“Lean R”

I expect Garcia to lose, but he’ll get at least 48% of the vote.

Interesting. An outlier for now but I wonder if Dems/Indies come home to Smith as the election draws closer.

That’s clearly what’s happening. Smith seems to be running a better campaign this time too.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Not surprising at all.

SoCal Democrats hate voting in elections that aren't the November Presidential. Special elections are no exception, especially when it's the only race on the ballot & 2 months into an unprecedented lockdown

Smith's chances are drastically better just by virtue of her being on the same ballot as the presidential race

[Pericles]

Yep, Smith is going to win.

[Xing]

Yeah, but I thought this seat was Lean/Likely R because it's "ancestrally Republican" and Garcia is a "nice moderate FF Republican"

Fundamentals matter. While I expect Garcia to overperform Trump (probably by more than 2), I don't think it'll be by anywhere near enough for him to win, since I think Biden will realistically win here by double digits.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

[ON Progressive]

This strikes me as much more believable than the junk we were getting earlier. Likely D, if not Safe D.

[S019]

But, but elastic bipartisan Clinton/Newsom/Hill/Yee/Ma/Padilla/Becerra voters for Mike Garcia exist, just look at the special, and Garcia's been a moderate hero , and Christy Smith said some bad stuff, so she's clearly DOA, the only question is by how much bipartisan hero Mike Garcia wins by


In all seriousness, Likely D, Biden will win this seat by double digits, probably, and Garcia won't run that much ahead of Trump, he honestly has as much of a chance as surviving as Comstock/Paulsen/Coffman had.

[ctrepublican512]

So I'm supposed to believe Garcia isn't outrunning Trump at all? Fishy

[MT Treasurer]

It’s not "polarization everywhere." It’s polarization/partisanship in Democratic/Democratic-leaning districts and states as opposed to Republican/Republican-leaning districts and states (compare ME-SEN, CO-SEN, CA-25, NJ-SEN 2018, NH-SEN 2016, etc. to KS-SEN, MT-SEN, SC-SEN, AK-SEN, WV-SEN 2018, AL-SEN 2017, MN-07, NY-22, PA-08, etc.). If it was "polarization everywhere", we wouldn’t even be talking about the Senate right now.

[DrScholl]

So I'm supposed to believe Garcia isn't outrunning Trump at all? Fishy

There's no reason why he would outrun Trump because he's quite conservative and Smith has been hitting him very hard on the airwaves. He could easily get the same percentage as Trump give or take a decimal.