NBC/WSJ: Biden +8%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7213809/200625-NBCWSJ-September-Poll.pdf
September 13-16
1000 registered voters
MoE: 3.1%
Changes with August 9-12 poll

Biden 51% (+1)
Trump 43% (+3)
Neither/other 3% (-2)
Not sure 3% (-1)

[psychprofessor]

Should be +8

[Hindsight was 2020]

+8

[wbrocks67]

Last poll was Biden 50-41, so Biden up 1% and Trump up 2% from last time. Essentially the same.

Always weird that this poll gives Trump better approval marks (45/53 here) than most other high quality polls while still finding him down.

Interesting here too, that I've seen in a couple recent HQ polls - Trump's black % was looking to be a few points better than 2016 in many before. That seems to have cratered. Biden is winning black voters 90-5 here.

[wbrocks67]

It's almost as if the average and trendline was skewed a bit by low quality polling! This was so obvious and we do this like every 2-3 weeks and everytime people fall for it even though its right infront of our eyes

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1307666382067302400

[Podgy the Bear]

The key here is Biden is over 50 and continues to remain so.

[American2020]

Some Tweets

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1307674200258338817

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1307675562136211461

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1307669569482436608

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1307670271659257856

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1307672659191308289

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1307677674693955584

[KaiserDave]

All of these voters will change their over because they will remember the Supreme Court exists

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

All of these voters will change their over because they will remember the Supreme Court exists

The next week is gonna be so annoying for polls. I almost think it'd be better to stymie new poll discussions until we get some conducted after this weekend

Either no one will take them seriously or we'll get 2 pages of folks telling you not to take them seriously

[redjohn]

Very solid leads for Biden. I'd like to see his average bump up to 51% or higher, which I'm sure it will as undecideds decrease (how is anyone undecided?)

[woodley park]

All of these voters will change their over because they will remember the Supreme Court exists

Or nothing will change, because folks who were voting for Biden aren't the types of people to be swayed at the last minute by the prospect of a Trump appointed-Justice. Obviously if they wanted Trump to appoint more Justices, they'd be supporting his re-election so that he'd have four more years to do so. They can't be single issue voters who lean towards Biden; if appointing conservative Justices was their single issue, they'd have been with Trump from the start.

If anything this seems like the kind of issue that will further consolidate Democratic unity going into the home stretch, effectively preventing last minute fissures from emerging in the coalition.

[Landslide Lyndon]

In case anyone wondered why they still use RVs and not LVs, here is the pollster's explanation, which I find perfectly acceptable.

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1307677140696137729

[KaiserDave]

All of these voters will change their over because they will remember the Supreme Court exists

Or nothing will change, because folks who were voting for Biden aren't the types of people to be swayed at the last minute by the prospect of a Trump appointed-Justice. Obviously if they wanted Trump to appoint more Justices, they'd be supporting his re-election so that he'd have four more years to do so. They can't be single issue voters who lean towards Biden; if appointing conservative Justices was their single issue, they'd have been with Trump from the start.

If anything this seems like the kind of issue that will further consolidate Democratic unity going into the home stretch, effectively preventing last minute fissures from emerging in the coalition.

I was being sarcastic, I agree with you