TX-25 - EMC Research (D): Trump +4

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1305492834892615681
Trump +15, Cruz +5 seat.

[wbrocks67]

All I have to say about this is that it's pretty wild that we get congressional polls with 400 respondents and then simultaneously get statewide polls from Monmouth, and recently NYT/Siena (NH, NV) of only about 400 people.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

All I have to say about this is that it's pretty wild that we get congressional polls with 400 respondents and then simultaneously get statewide polls from Monmouth, and recently NYT/Siena (NH, NV) of only about 400 people.

I suspect it's just as easy to poll 400 people in one district as it is to poll 400 people across an entire state.

[wbrocks67]

All I have to say about this is that it's pretty wild that we get congressional polls with 400 respondents and then simultaneously get statewide polls from Monmouth, and recently NYT/Siena (NH, NV) of only about 400 people.

I suspect it's just as easy to poll 400 people in one district as it is to poll 400 people across an entire state.

True, I'm just saying I think the congressional polls are more reliable since we have a better sample size. There's no defending Monmouth seriously doing polls of states like PA with only 400 voters.

[Pollster]

All I have to say about this is that it's pretty wild that we get congressional polls with 400 respondents and then simultaneously get statewide polls from Monmouth, and recently NYT/Siena (NH, NV) of only about 400 people.

I suspect it's just as easy to poll 400 people in one district as it is to poll 400 people across an entire state.

True, I'm just saying I think the congressional polls are more reliable since we have a better sample size. There's no defending Monmouth seriously doing polls of states like PA with only 400 voters.

There's no difference - a poll of 400 has the same margin of error in a congressional district as it does statewide in California. Population size has no impact on a sample's accuracy once you hit a population of 20,000.