MI-03 - GSG (D): Biden +8

[VAR]

Sep 8-10, 400 LV, MoE: 4.9%

Biden 49%
Trump 41%

Trump approval: 44/53 (-9)

https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/7c9798eaafd54081881797bf9a163295/files/research/MI-03-Poll-091520.pdf

District info:

Trump 52-42 (+10)
James 51-47 (+4)
Schuette 49-48 (+0)

[kph14]

If this was accurate, Biden would be looking at a 15+ points landslide in Michigan.

This district voted for Trump 52-42 in 2016 and for Schuette 49-48 in 2018.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Trump won this district 52%-42% last time.

[wbrocks67]

If this was accurate, Biden would be looking at a 15+ points landslide in Michigan.

This district voted for Trump 52-42 in 2016 and for Schuette 49-48 in 2018.

In a universal swing yeah but correct me if i'm wrong, but isn't this the type of district that is way more prime than normal for a Biden swing given its demos?

[kireev]

54% are college graduates - way too high.

[Sbane]

54% are college graduates - way too high.

Only 38% have four year college degrees or higher. Kent County, Michigan, which is where this district is based, is about 35% college educated. So looks about right.

We do have to be cautious since it is a D internal, but even if you adjust it towards Trump by 5 points, this is terrible news for him.

[VAR]

54% are college graduates - way too high.

Only 38% have four year college degrees or higher. Kent County, Michigan, which is where this district is based, is about 35% college educated. So looks about right.

We do have to be cautious since it is a D internal, but even if you adjust it towards Trump by 5 points, this is terrible news for him.

Yes, remember, college graduate = 4-year college degree + post-graduate degree. OP added 2-year degrees (16%) to 38% and got 54%, but the problem is people who hold associate’s degrees are mostly Republican, while actual “college graduates” vote quite differently.

[republican1993]

54% are college graduates - way too high.

Only 38% have four year college degrees or higher. Kent County, Michigan, which is where this district is based, is about 35% college educated. So looks about right.

We do have to be cautious since it is a D internal, but even if you adjust it towards Trump by 5 points, this is terrible news for him.

I feel like in every district trump is losing LOL i swear he is going to lose everywhere but whatever.

[The Mikado]

It feels like DCCC is polling a Biden +15 world and not the Biden +7 world we're in.

[kireev]

People with two year degrees are not counted as college graduates?

I agree, that this is still a bad poll for Trump.

54% are college graduates - way too high.

Only 38% have four year college degrees or higher. Kent County, Michigan, which is where this district is based, is about 35% college educated. So looks about right.

We do have to be cautious since it is a D internal, but even if you adjust it towards Trump by 5 points, this is terrible news for him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

People with two year degrees are not counted as college graduates?

I agree, that this is still a bad poll for Trump.

54% are college graduates - way too high.

Only 38% have four year college degrees or higher. Kent County, Michigan, which is where this district is based, is about 35% college educated. So looks about right.

We do have to be cautious since it is a D internal, but even if you adjust it towards Trump by 5 points, this is terrible news for him.

Most pollsters don't separate out 2-year degrees (a few do) so generally "college educated" means a 4-year degree or higher.  As someone pointed out earlier, there is typically a significant difference in voting patterns between the 2-year and 4-year degree groups.

[Badger]

It feels like DCCC is polling a Biden +15 world and not the Biden +7 world we're in.

Well, applying that logic to this poll, this means Biden is tied in a district Trump won by 10 points four years ago.

[Bojack Horseman]

Great news for Hillary Scholten.

[DaleCooper]

It feels like DCCC is polling a Biden +15 world and not the Biden +7 world we're in.

It seems that way, and I take polls like this with a grain of salt, but again, people are really underestimating just how much even modest gains among white and old voters will change the composition of the electoral map.

[compucomp]

It feels like DCCC is polling a Biden +15 world and not the Biden +7 world we're in.

Nate Silver (I think) made the point that internal polls are not necessarily biased, but the release of internal polls definitely is. The DCCC will only put out the good polls that they want everyone to see to drive the narrative, fundraising etc.

However Nate also made the point that the fact we are seeing mostly D internals and not R internals could be a leading indicator in the Democrats' favor. The opposite would be radio silence from D pollsters while R internals show PA-1 safe for Trump, Cartwright in trouble in PA-8, or Cheri Bustos in trouble in IL-17, for example.

[Alben Barkley]

It feels like DCCC is polling a Biden +15 world and not the Biden +7 world we're in.

Nate Silver (I think) made the point that internal polls are not necessarily biased, but the release of internal polls definitely is. The DCCC will only put out the good polls that they want everyone to see to drive the narrative, fundraising etc.

However Nate also made the point that the fact we are seeing mostly D internals and not R internals could be a leading indicator in the Democrats' favor. The opposite would be radio silence from D pollsters while R internals show PA-1 safe for Trump, Cartwright in trouble in PA-8, or Cheri Bustos in trouble in IL-17, for example.

This is key. If you ask me, in fact, there are few more bullish signs for Dems than the sheer number of internals being released. Never mind how large the swings they are showing are, and what that would suggest about the national environment.

It would take a HUGE number of polls being off just about EVERYWHERE for Trump to win this time.

[Sbane]

People with two year degrees are not counted as college graduates?

I agree, that this is still a bad poll for Trump.

54% are college graduates - way too high.

Only 38% have four year college degrees or higher. Kent County, Michigan, which is where this district is based, is about 35% college educated. So looks about right.

We do have to be cautious since it is a D internal, but even if you adjust it towards Trump by 5 points, this is terrible news for him.

I think at least for political analysis, we should look at those with a four year college degree as a separate group from those with a two year college degree.

[Yellowhammer]

Looks like Kent County is the new Washentaw.

[Sbane]

It feels like DCCC is polling a Biden +15 world and not the Biden +7 world we're in.

Nate Silver (I think) made the point that internal polls are not necessarily biased, but the release of internal polls definitely is. The DCCC will only put out the good polls that they want everyone to see to drive the narrative, fundraising etc.

However Nate also made the point that the fact we are seeing mostly D internals and not R internals could be a leading indicator in the Democrats' favor. The opposite would be radio silence from D pollsters while R internals show PA-1 safe for Trump, Cartwright in trouble in PA-8, or Cheri Bustos in trouble in IL-17, for example.

Exactly. Internals are high quality polls. Even high quality polls have outliers though.