CA-50 - SurveyUSA/KGTV-TV/San Diego Union-Tribune: Biden +3%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=70533721-42f4-4add-968f-eb3e564bd7f1

September 4-7
508 likely voters
MoE: 5.4%

Biden 48%
Trump 45%
Some other candidate 4%
Undecided 3%

A Trump 55%-Clinton 40% district in 2016.

[Gass3268]

This is how we get Biden over 70% in California.

[Calthrina950]

This seems too good to be true, but as has been noted elsewhere, the Democratic ceiling in California has not yet been hit. Biden could easily hit 60% in San Diego County, like Controller Betty Yee did in 2018. My hunch is that CA-50 will still vote for Trump, but it could very well be a single-digit margin, which would still represent a significant leftwards swing from 2016.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Even if this is an outlier, the Congressional race must be more competitive than I’d anticipated. This is a red flag for the PV/EC split in November.

[wbrocks67]

isn't SUSA the gold standard for CA too?

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Najar beats Issa that would be sweeter than candy.

[kph14]

FWIW, the district is definitely trending left

Voter Registration October 2018:

REP  : 154,163
DEM : 103,009

Voter Registration August 2020:

REP  : 169,178 (+15,115)
DEM : 127,202 (+24,193)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

^

Gotta include NPPs too. They also play an important role in this district

October 22, 2018
Republican:    154,163   40.1%
NPP:                104,381   27.1%
Democrat:      103,009   26.8%
3rd parties:       23,340     6.0%
TOTAL:            384,893


July 3, 2020
Republican:     166,089   40.1%   (0)
Democrat:       124,114   30.0%  (+3.2)
NPP:                   96,765   23.4%   (-3.7)
3rd parties:        27,267     6.5%  (+0.5)
TOTAL:             414,235  (+29,342)