Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll: Biden +6

[VAR]

Aug 31-Sep 2

Biden 53% (-2)
Trump 47% (+2)

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/515192-biden-leads-trump-on-law-and-order-coronavirus-poll

[Horus]

Not good.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Changes with July 21-23 poll. (With leaners, in both cases.)

Likely voter subsample of full sample of 1604 registered voters.

Undecided 6% (-4)

[DaleCooper]

Pretty standard for a Harris poll.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The links says the result is 49-42.

[Buzz]

The race is between 6-8 points.  This is standard across the board.

[ProudModerate2]

The links says the result is 49-42.

Yes it does. And that would be +7.

[wbrocks67]

The links says the result is 49-42.

“The 9 percent of likely voters who say they are unsure about who they will vote for lean toward Trump by a 58- to 42-percent margin. When these leaning voters are included, Biden’s national lead narrows from 7 points to 6 points.“

Hm... meh, that doesn't jive with anything we've seen so a bit suspicious. +7 topline though makes sense. We're back to about a 7-9 average.

[Rand]

You’d think a poll conducted by Captain America and Kamala Harris would show a better result for Biden.

[Alben Barkley]

Not good.

I know, right?

Being down 6-7 points is terrible for an incumbent president!

Seriously, imagine looking at a poll like this and thinking BIDEN is the one in trouble. “Delusion” really cannot be said enough.

[BigSerg]

Not good.

I know, right?

Being down 6-7 points is terrible for an incumbent president!

Seriously, imagine looking at a poll like this and thinking BIDEN is the one in trouble. “Delusion” really cannot be said enough.

47 = Trump wins EC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not good.

I know, right?

Being down 6-7 points is terrible for an incumbent president!

Seriously, imagine looking at a poll like this and thinking BIDEN is the one in trouble. “Delusion” really cannot be said enough.

47 = Trump wins EC

Trump has lost every poll in MN, MI, WI and PA and this isn't 2016 where we had 4 percent unemployment, we have 8 percent unemployment

[Nyvin]

Not good.

I know, right?

Being down 6-7 points is terrible for an incumbent president!

Seriously, imagine looking at a poll like this and thinking BIDEN is the one in trouble. “Delusion” really cannot be said enough.

47 = Trump wins EC

Uhh..with Biden getting 53%?  Not likely.

[kireev]

=Being down 6-7 points is terrible for an incumbent president!= And we are talking about a poll taken right after the convention!

Not good.

I know, right?

Being down 6-7 points is terrible for an incumbent president!

Seriously, imagine looking at a poll like this and thinking BIDEN is the one in trouble. “Delusion” really cannot be said enough.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden at 53% makes up for this relatively smaller margin.

But also there is no way that Trump gets 47% of the popular vote. His ceiling is 46% again. Undecideds were clearly pushed hard in this poll.

[demoman1596]

Not good.

I know, right?

Being down 6-7 points is terrible for an incumbent president!

Seriously, imagine looking at a poll like this and thinking BIDEN is the one in trouble. “Delusion” really cannot be said enough.

47 = Trump wins EC

Uhhh, no.  That's only the case if Biden ALSO only gets below 50.  Given that third-party support and undecideds are substantially lower this cycle, the likelihood of both candidates getting around 47 like in 2016 is also substantially lower.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Not good.

I know, right?

Being down 6-7 points is terrible for an incumbent president!

Seriously, imagine looking at a poll like this and thinking BIDEN is the one in trouble. “Delusion” really cannot be said enough.

47 = Trump wins EC

Trump has lost every poll in MN, MI, WI and PA and this isn't 2016 where we had 4 percent unemployment, we have 8 percent unemployment

At this point in 2012 Obama/Biden had 8.1% unemployment
Trump currently has 8.4%

[woodley park]

Not good.

I know, right?

Being down 6-7 points is terrible for an incumbent president!

Seriously, imagine looking at a poll like this and thinking BIDEN is the one in trouble. “Delusion” really cannot be said enough.

47 = Trump wins EC

Trump has lost every poll in MN, MI, WI and PA and this isn't 2016 where we had 4 percent unemployment, we have 8 percent unemployment

At this point in 2012 Obama/Biden had 8.1% unemployment
Trump currently has 8.4%

...it started at 4.8% on his watch...

[Virginiá]

At this point in 2012 Obama/Biden had 8.1% unemployment
Trump currently has 8.4%

Difference circumstances, though. The actual economic crash happened under his predecessor's watch. Obama was perceived as leading an economic recovery.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not good.

I know, right?

Being down 6-7 points is terrible for an incumbent president!

Seriously, imagine looking at a poll like this and thinking BIDEN is the one in trouble. “Delusion” really cannot be said enough.

47 = Trump wins EC

Trump has lost every poll in MN, MI, WI and PA and this isn't 2016 where we had 4 percent unemployment, we have 8 percent unemployment

At this point in 2012 Obama/Biden had 8.1% unemployment
Trump currently has 8.4%

...it started at 4.8% on his watch...

Exactly. The situation is not at all comparable. Obama was seen as still overseeing a recovery, albeit a slow one. Meanwhile Trump squandered a record economy and is running against a player in the economic recovery that he inherited.

[Hammy]

Not good.

I know, right?

Being down 6-7 points is terrible for an incumbent president!

Seriously, imagine looking at a poll like this and thinking BIDEN is the one in trouble. “Delusion” really cannot be said enough.

47 = Trump wins EC

How does Trump doing +1 compared to 2016 give him the EC if Biden does +5 compared to 2016? The winning margins of PA/FL/MI/WI combined is still less than 1% of the vote--and those were wins of 48-46. Trump's not getting that with a 4% national D shift.