FL-Trafalgar: Trump +3

[MT Treasurer]

Strong tilt-R.

Titanium Tilt R*

Get your memes straight.

Trump: 50.0000011

Biden: 49.9999989

Yeah, it’s the easiest state to predict, Biden shouldn’t even contest.

[Woody]

Strong tilt-R.

Titanium Tilt R*

Get your memes straight.

I wasn't joking, Strong-tilt-R = anywhere from Trump +0.8 to 2 points.

[DaleCooper]

Why are people worried about Trafalgar? Might as well worry about OAN polls at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are people worried about Trafalgar? Might as well worry about OAN polls at this point.

Due to fact there are blue avatars on this site, whom still want Trump to win, obviously

[ElectionsGuy]

+4 for Trump in 2016. So if Trafalgar has the same bias they did in 2016/18, Trump will at least get close to his 2016 performance, perhaps with a slightly different coalition.

Cahaly (who does the poll) just offered a bet of 10K (I think) to Nate Silver that his polls will be more accurate than the 538 models. Silver said he couldn't do it but also said he would bet MORE that he is better. Seems like both of them are too confident.

[DaleCooper]

+4 for Trump in 2016. So if Trafalgar has the same bias they did in 2016/18, Trump will at least get close to his 2016 performance, perhaps with a slightly different coalition.

Cahaly (who does the poll) just offered a bet of 10K (I think) to Nate Silver that his polls will be more accurate than the 538 models. Silver said he couldn't do it but also said he would bet MORE that he is better. Seems like both of them are too confident.

I'd bet on the one that doesn't admit to boosting the margins of their preferred candidate.

[Alben Barkley]

Why anyone takes Trafalgar seriously at all after they admitted to adjusting their polls for the mythical “shy Trump voter effect,” I will never understand.

[Person Man]

Why anyone takes Trafalgar seriously at all after they admitted to adjusting their polls for the mythical “shy Trump voter effect,” I will never understand.

How do you get the truth from liars in a poll, anyways.

[tagimaucia]

I would really like the Trafalgar defenders to answer the following question: What do you think the current national Trump-Biden margin is?

[Woody]

I would really like the Trafalgar defenders to answer the following question: What do you think the current national Trump-Biden margin is?

Biden +1-2 as of right now.

[soundchaser]

Biden +1-2 as of right now.

There's no particularly kind way to say this: you are deluding yourself.

[tagimaucia]

I would really like the Trafalgar defenders to answer the following question: What do you think the current national Trump-Biden margin is?

Biden +1-2 as of right now.

Thanks for answering. National polls were off by 1 point in 2016 and 1 point in 2018. I’m curious why you think they are likely off by 5 to 6 points right now.  Is the main reason that you believe this because the national polls conflict with Trafalgar (or Rasmussen) and you think those pollsters are more credible than all other pollsters combined?  Are there other reasons?  Is the “shy trump” voter hypothesis the underlying reason for this gap that you believe is there or are there other significant ones?

[Alben Barkley]

Biden +1-2 as of right now.

There's no particularly kind way to say this: you are deluding yourself.

Oh come on, that was way too kind for him.

[Chips]

Florida will be dead even.  Closest state on 11/3. 

This. I think Trump by half a point when all is said and done.

[Hammy]

Average all the non-Trafalgar polls, average that number with Trafalgar, and that's about where Florida's at. Nobody's done well in the state for quite some time.