TX-03 (GSG/Seikaly): Biden +3

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1306581693105659904

Trump won this district by 14%. The bottom may be falling out for him across TX at this point. Even if you take 10% off here, Trump is only leading by 7, still nearly quite off from his own margin in 2016.

[Illini Moderate]

Cruz won this district 51-48 in 2018 for reference

[wbrocks67]

Cruz won this district 51-48 in 2018 for reference

So Biden +3 would put it right around tied/slight Biden win which makes sense given the polls we've seen

[MidwestPollster]

Per Wasserman on Twitter- Romney +30 in 2012

[ultraviolet]

Trump +14 in 2016

[Rand]

It's like Abraham Lincoln once said, "as TX-03 goes so goes the nation."

[ExSky]

Quite incredible how quickly the Dallas suburbs are shifting.

[BaldEagle1991]

Quite incredible how quickly the Dallas suburbs are shifting.

I think if there is a poster child for how the suburbs are shifting to the Dems during the Trump era, it would be the Dallas suburbs.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Internal caveat, but if this district is even tied, Biden stands a solid chance at flipping Texas.

Though if you still think "Texas isn't ready yet" after all the other polls we've seen this year, this poll won't convince you

[GeorgiaModerate]

Internal caveat, but if this district is even tied, Biden stands a great chance at flipping Texas.


Also, if you still think "Texas is ready yet" after all the other polls we've seen this year, this one won't convince you

Why wouldn't we think Texas is ready?   (I'm sure you meant "isn't".)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Internal caveat, but if this district is even tied, Biden stands a great chance at flipping Texas.


Also, if you still think "Texas is ready yet" after all the other polls we've seen this year, this one won't convince you

Why wouldn't we think Texas is ready?   (I'm sure you meant "isn't".)

I was still editing! 

[woodley park]

Raise your hand if thought the Upper Midwest was not 'ready' to go red in 2016. At the time, I would have raised my hand.

Texas is ready. Texas flipping to Biden would be the equivalent of the Upper Midwest flipping for Trump back in 2016 -- and the way the GOP's chickens have come home to roost this year, it almost feels inevitable that it will happen.  Lets hope it flips; a Blue Texas would thoroughly stun red America and force a drastic re-evaluation of the cancer that is Trumpism, in the way that a narrow or moderate Trump loss would not.

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

Competitive state house districts that are in TX-03:

HD-66 (Plano)
Matt Shaheen (R) (inc.) vs. Sharon Hirsch (D)

HD-67 (Plano)
Jeff Leach (R) (inc.) vs. Lorenzo Sanchez (D)

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Quite incredible how quickly the Dallas suburbs are shifting.

I think if there is a poster child for how the suburbs are shifting to the Dems during the Trump era, it would be the Dallas suburbs.

Democrats are also lucky that there are virtually no retirees moving to TX. It seems to be almost entirely in AZ, SC and FL.

[NOVA Green]

Competitive state house districts that are in TX-03:

HD-66 (Plano)
Matt Shaheen (R) (inc.) vs. Sharon Hirsch (D)

HD-67 (Plano)
Jeff Leach (R) (inc.) vs. Lorenzo Sanchez (D)

So--- I think Atlas CW appears to support that Plano, Texas is flipping in '16, considering '16 GE-PRES and '18 TX-SEN results...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7507853#msg7507853

If so---one might imagine that down-ballot votes could favor flips in both these TX State HD's...

I guess the next obvious question is what does this mean for McKinney and Frisco in the event of a Biden TX-03 flip?