MO (MO Scout/Remington): Parson +7

[VAR]

Parson 50%
Galloway 43%

https://moscout.com/s/MOSCOUT-Weekly-081420.pptx

[Astatine]

Last time it was Parson +9 (50-41) after showing double digit leads before.

Likely R, way closer to Lean than Safe.

[Hope For A New Era]

Good. Hope it keeps dropping!

Nixon was reelected in 2012 by 12 points even as Romney won the state by 9, so if she outperforms Biden by even half that much, she has a good chance of winning.

[wbrocks67]

R pollster too. This could really be a real race.

[Orwell]

"Let them kids get the COVID"

[user12345]

Could be a tighter race than initially expected. Galloway hasn't really expanded to full-blown campaigning yet from what I have seen whereas Parson has been.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

65% of Missourians support a mask mandate. That should put to rest whether Biden made the right choice in calling for one.

[Hope For A New Era]

Parson has started running some "law and order" type attack ads. Hopefully they fall as flat for him as they did for Trump.

65% of Missourians support a mask mandate. That should put to rest whether Biden made the right choice in calling for one.

Missouri: Where we support progressive policies, vote by huge margins for them on ballot measures, but then vote for people who do everything they can to undermine them.

Seriously, I don't think there's any other state that does this to such an absurd extreme.

The most dramatic example was 2018. This state voted for medical marijuana, against right-to-work, and in favor of a raised minimum wage, and then elected to the Senate a man who holds the opposite position on all three of those issues.

All you need to do to get elected here nowadays is
- Have an R next to your name
- Be able to sound convincingly populist in soundbites
- Spout vague nonsense about Nancy Pelosi whenever you're asked a difficult question

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Parson has started running some "law and order" type attack ads. Hopefully they fall as flat for him as they did for Trump.

65% of Missourians support a mask mandate. That should put to rest whether Biden made the right choice in calling for one.

Missouri: Where we support progressive policies, vote by huge margins for them on ballot measures, but then vote for people who do everything they can to undermine them.

Seriously, I don't think there's any other state that does this to such an absurd extreme.

The most dramatic example was 2018. This state voted for medical marijuana, against right-to-work, and in favor of a raised minimum wage, and then elected to the Senate a man who holds the opposite position on all three of those issues.

All you need to do to get elected here nowadays is
- Have an R next to your name
- Be able to sound convincingly populist in soundbites
- Spout vague nonsense about Nancy Pelosi whenever you're asked a difficult question

Read: subtly (or not-so-subtly) racist.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Parson will win

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Remington Research/Missouri Scout poll
August 12-13, 2020
1112 likely voters
MoE: 3%

Gubernatorial:
Undecided 7%

Missouri Amendment 3, 2020:
For 46%
Against 19%
Undecded 35%

Missouri Amendment 3 is on the ballot in November and is essentially the state GOP's compromise with the 2018 Clean Missouri initiative (which succeeded by a fairly wide margin). It further reduces the threshold for paid lobbyists' gifts to legislators from $5 to $0 (Clean Missouri introduced that limit as $5), further lowers the campaign contribution limits for state senate campaigns (these limits were established by the 2018 amendment) and doesn't challenge the 2018 changes which restricted the use of accepting or contributing gifts through hidden or false identities.

However, it does revert changes to the redistricting process to one decided by a "bipartisan" commission appointed by the governor. Thanks to the 2018 amendment, that commission was replaced with a nonpartisan demographer and a citizens' commission and the criteria for redistricting were also changed.

[Hope For A New Era]

Galloway is *finally* running TV ads!

[NewYorkExpress]

If Parson is already at 50, this one is over.

Even if he isn't, it's going be a lot easier to for him win then it will be for Galloway.

[Hope For A New Era]

If Parson is already at 50, this one is over.

Even if he isn't, it's going be a lot easier to for him win then it will be for Galloway.

His approvals are low. He has room to fall.

Also, part of that support is probably on name-recognition alone. We'll probably see them on a more even footing in that regard after a few weeks of Galloway TV ads.

[Xing]

Given Parson’s handling of COVID, he’s probably not completely safe, but I’d still call this Likely R, especially given how MO polling has been.