Opinium: Biden +15

[BobbieMac]

Biden 56
Trump 41

Aug 21 - 25 so before RNC.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/02/democrats-fear-trump-reject-election-defeat-poll

[CellarDoor]

I take this one with a huge grain of salt but it's interesting that Trump is polling at 41% here too, like Selzer.

[Pericles]

Huh. Opinium was giving the biggest landslide margins to Boris and got that right. Maybe they'll be right here too, and the other polls are slightly underestimating Biden so it's a double-digit Biden landslide. The connection is probably meaningless, but one can hope.

[Rand]

#RNCBump

[BlueSwan]

Before RNC, but seeing a +15 Biden national poll always makes me happy. Also let's celebrate that the polling drought seems to be over.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GoP is missing McCain, who was the Maverick of the Senate, who helped the GOP win so many elections by triangulation, thats why AZ will have 2 Dem Senators. McCain would have told McConnell to pass the Heroes Act, despite the deficit concerns, that the Rs weren't concerned about during the Tax cuts of 2001 and 2017

[BlueSwan]

The GoP is missing McCain, who was the Maverick of the Senate, who helped the GOP win so many elections by triangulation, thats why AZ will have 2 Dem Senators. McCain would have told McConnell to pass the Heroes Act, despite the deficit concerns, that the Rs weren't concerned about during the Tax cuts of 2001 and 2017

I really have no idea how you come up with this stuff.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The sample is "Those who are registered to vote and indicate that they are certain to do so" within a full sample of 2002 adults.

Changes with June 19-24 poll

Biden 56% (+4%)
Trump 41% (+1%)

The following subsamples might be quite trashy - 538 isn't listing them separately yet - but the release claims:

In swing states Wisconsin and Florida, Biden enjoys leads of 14 points (56% v 42%) and seven points up (53% v 46%) respectively.

[morgieb]

Why are all these English pollsters taking a crack at America?

[Eraserhead]

#RNCBump

The poll was literally done before it.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I mean, even if it's a bad poll, there are like a dozen Republican-biased bad polls so some balance is nice

[Rand]

#RNCBump

The poll was literally done before it.

And yet the GOP has images of America under a future Biden presidency. Time is relative.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why are all these English pollsters taking a crack at America?

Maybe they're bored without a UK election.

[Brittain33]

Hahahahaha sure.

[JRP1994]

Good for Trump

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

Perfect, I needed an big Opium poll to take the edge off.

[pbrower2a]

Why are all these English pollsters taking a crack at America?

1. No language barrier.
2. A perception of disinterest. British media recognize that American media have sharp ideological divides.
3. Mass interest by Brits about this American election. Trump gives many in Britain the heebie-jeebies. Don't you think that Americans would be sweating the election if someone from the nutcase Right or Left had a chance  of winning a parliamentary majority or were able to force a coalition?

I welcome British pollsters.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

We have a fuller release! I'm requesting a title change to reflect the FL/WI polls (it turns these states were deliberately overpolled for proper sampling as opposed to just being tiny subsamples).

https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/biden-leads-trump-by-wide-margin-in-august/

National:
August 21-26, 2020
1257 likely voters

Changes with June 19-24 poll which used a slightly different metric to determine likely voters, assigning those who would definitely vote to that category.

Biden 54% (+2%)
Trump 39% (-1%)
Other 2% (-1% - previously listed as "some other candidate")
Undecided 5% (+1%)

The 56/41 break previously posted here is the result when undecided voters are removed (not the pushing of leaners, to be clear, just the removal of unsure voters from the sample).

GCB:
1180 likely voters

Democratic 56% (+5%)
Republican 43% (+2%)
Other candidate 2% (-1% from "some other candidate")
No undecided category here (-6%)

Edit: moving the FL/Wi numbers to the other thread.

[President Johnson]

NUT