If the "migrant caravan" didn't work in 2018....why does GOP think "riots" will work now?

[DaleCooper]

It's a losing issue, most likely, but we're at the point where any distraction from COVID will be marginally beneficial to the GOP, even if at best for them it just means they are down by mid-to-high single digits instead of by 10+.

[Beet]

The right Democratic response to the whole "law and order" thing is simple. First of all they have to strongly and specifically denounce the rioting and looting and make it clear they don't support it. You have to see this not only from the top of the ticket but from local officials, and they have to take strong action to get it to stop.

Secondly, they need to say that despite this, we need to fix the deeper problems that are causing so much unrest and hopelessness. The rioters and looters are taking advantage of hopelessness because:

1. We have an economic system that benefits too much the people at the top, and Trump's tax cuts won't fix it. We need more aggressive legislation on health care, education, the minimum wage, and so on.

2. We are racially divided and need racial healing as a nation. That means we have to address the inequalities in policing as they are perceived, whether they are fair or not. We have to address the legitimate concerns of our fellow African-American citizens.

3. We have to set an example of law and order at the top. Too many members of this administration have been indicted. The RNC violated the Hatch Act. We need law and order for common people yes, but the Presidential Administration should set an example.

That is a solid response. The question is, can Biden articulate it?

[Admiral Stockdale]

Migrant caravan impacted some border areas of Texas...  riots impact the suburbs in the Midwest.

[Mr. Smith]

A) 2018 is not 2020. 2020 doesn't have a women-wave as 2018 had.

Republicans didn’t suffer devastating losses in 2018 because Democrats nominated many female candidates.

B) Republicans did in fact really well in certain swing states in 2018.

"Really well" is a serious exaggeration, especially given how poorly they did in likely tipping-point states (AZ/WI/MI/PA). Besides, the environment is even more unfavorable for the GOP today than two years ago.

Also, Biden/Harris are lacking a convincing slogan or connection to voters that would win the election for them, like Obama's slogan did. Just "return to normal" might not cut it for them.

"Return to normal" has been working pretty well for Democrats in elections held during Trump's presidency + slogans don’t cause as large shifts in voter support as you seem to think they do.

Evers barely won, Garcia got routed worse than notorious Ben Jealous, and even Whitlary was a bit less than expected.

And on the Senate side, Stabenow seriously underperformed.


And that's to say nothing of Florida, even if we accept Missouri and Indiana are just "too red" now.

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

Migrant caravan impacted some border areas of Texas...  riots impact the suburbs in the Midwest.

It really didn't. Rural Hispanics in South Texas have poor levels of voting engagement.

The story there is more that nothing Donald Trump has done sufficiently motivated low-propensity Hispanics to turn out to vote any more than they normally do; the Democratic shift in Texas in 2018 was a story of white suburbanites abandoning the GOP.

[Horus]

Because it's easier to sensationalize something that actually exists.