1962 Alabama Senate Election (Hill (D) wins by a narrow margin)

[Mr.Phips]

I don't think that it's fair to compare 1984 to 2004 as one was a landslide and the other was not. Like Al said, it has a lot to do with racial demographics. If an area turns black, as Clayton has done it will absolutely change. I guess what my overall point was, which is probably different than what you were getting at, is that I don't see Metro Atlanta, as a whole, as getting more Democratic.

2004 and 1984 were both the same style landslide in Georgia.

[memphis]

So you're saying that these areas are more Dem compared to Georgia? Ok, I was thinking more in more of a national way.

[Calthrina950]

What I think is really interesting about the early crack in the solid South is that it happened first in urban areas, places that today have swung back to being Dem, thanks to minority voting.  Nixon nearly won DeKalb and Fulton counties, GA in 1960. Nixon won Jefferson, AL and Montgomery, AL by wide margins, despite barely breaking 40% statewide.

Yeah, it is.  Now Jefferson, AL, and Montgomery, AL are actually trending Dem, as are DeKalb, Fulton and even Cobb county in Georgia.

If Cobb and Gwinnett were to follow the trend of the Research triangle in NC and Northern VA, that is, heavily populated suburban South areas swinging to the Democrats, that would help the Democrats possibly win Georgia senate and presidential races in the future.

If you look at the 2004 GA swing/trend map, all the inner Atlanta metro counties trended Democrat, while the exurbs like Forsyth (over 80% for Bush!), Cherokee and Walton had awful swings to Bush. I suppose we can thank Zell Miller in part for that. But my point is the whole metro area swung slightly to Kerry while the entire rest of GA (minus some Black Belt counties) swung heavily to Bush. Since Metro Atlanta now makes up 55% of the state's population, thats good news for the Dems.......sort of.

I really can't see Cobb or Gwinett going Dem. Just really not in their culture. It would be like an inner city ghetto going Republican.

It is amazing how much has changed in just 13 years. Cobb and Gwinnett Counties gave George W. Bush over 60% of the vote in 2004, and now, they are poised to give double-digit landslides to Joe Biden.

[MT Treasurer]

If Cobb and Gwinnett were to follow the trend of the Research triangle in NC and Northern VA, that is, heavily populated suburban South areas swinging to the Democrats, that would help the Democrats possibly win Georgia senate and presidential races in the future.

If you look at the 2004 GA swing/trend map, all the inner Atlanta metro counties trended Democrat, while the exurbs like Forsyth (over 80% for Bush!), Cherokee and Walton had awful swings to Bush. I suppose we can thank Zell Miller in part for that. But my point is the whole metro area swung slightly to Kerry while the entire rest of GA (minus some Black Belt counties) swung heavily to Bush. Since Metro Atlanta now makes up 55% of the state's population, thats good news for the Dems.......sort of.

I really can't see Cobb or Gwinett going Dem. Just really not in their culture. It would be like an inner city ghetto going Republican.

I know it won't happen in the next few elections, but in 15, 20 years, who knows? Fairfax used to be heavily Republican. I don't know what makes Gwinnett, Cobb and the like so different from Fairfax and Raliegh-Durham, all are white collar/middle class areas with lots of recent migrants from up North who are more moderate than their new Southern neighbors, and compared to rural voters in their states, are more concerned with issues like transportation, budgets and the environment than moral values, moral values, moral values.

Didn’t even take 10 years.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

If Cobb and Gwinnett were to follow the trend of the Research triangle in NC and Northern VA, that is, heavily populated suburban South areas swinging to the Democrats, that would help the Democrats possibly win Georgia senate and presidential races in the future.

If you look at the 2004 GA swing/trend map, all the inner Atlanta metro counties trended Democrat, while the exurbs like Forsyth (over 80% for Bush!), Cherokee and Walton had awful swings to Bush. I suppose we can thank Zell Miller in part for that. But my point is the whole metro area swung slightly to Kerry while the entire rest of GA (minus some Black Belt counties) swung heavily to Bush. Since Metro Atlanta now makes up 55% of the state's population, thats good news for the Dems.......sort of.

I really can't see Cobb or Gwinett going Dem. Just really not in their culture. It would be like an inner city ghetto going Republican.

I know it won't happen in the next few elections, but in 15, 20 years, who knows? Fairfax used to be heavily Republican. I don't know what makes Gwinnett, Cobb and the like so different from Fairfax and Raliegh-Durham, all are white collar/middle class areas with lots of recent migrants from up North who are more moderate than their new Southern neighbors, and compared to rural voters in their states, are more concerned with issues like transportation, budgets and the environment than moral values, moral values, moral values.

Didn’t even take 10 years.

People in 2030 could be mocking us about saying how Forsyth county GA will never vote Democratic.

[scjohnson]

It really would be interesting to see data on black voter registration in counties like Macon and Charles City Virginia in the 1950s and 1960s, as they are obviously heavily dem today but would occasionally vote republican or independent during that time, like in 1956.