Morning Consult: Kelly +16 in AZ, Hick +6 in CO, Perdue + 3 in GA, Peters + 14 in MI, Cal +9 in NC

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Very nice numbers for the Dems in this midnight poll. Very poor showing for Hick, however.

[Gass3268]

I'm 99% sure it won't happen, but if Hick costs us the Senate majority...

[WD]

Why is Tillis such a bad incumbent?, Underperforming Trump by 9 and getting 10% lower share of the vote? Y I K E S

[Pericles]

Why is Tillis such a bad incumbent?, Underperforming Trump by 9 and getting 10% lower share of the vote? Y I K E S

A lot of undecideds in that race and Cunningham is actually lower than Biden. My guess is the undecideds are Republican leaners who don't like Tillis but will come home at the end, so there'll be a late surge for Tillis.

[Non Swing Voter]

so if I'm reading this correctly, the third party vote share looks bigger for senate races and Biden does a bit better than Dem Senate candidates overall.  Seems like this indicates that third party voters prefer Biden over Trump.  Bad sign for Trump as the 3rd party vote share for President was so large last time. 

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm more interested in the undecided vote share in Michigan.

If that's right, that could lead to either a Peters landslide or a narrow James win, depending on which way those undecided voters lean.

[LimoLiberal]

Hickenlooper looks "weak" in this poll but the reality is that Gardner being at 42% in a Democratic state is almost a guarantee he will lose unless there are more scandals or the political environment changes rapidly.

It's like Bob Hugin being down "only" six points to Menendez.

[Pyro]

If Cunningham outperforms Hickenlooper *chef kiss*

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA is gonna go to a runoff

[WD]

Hickenlooper seems to be underperforming, I may just be overreacting but does Gardner still have a chance? Especially with all of Hicks ethics issues.

[wbrocks67]

Hickenlooper seems to be underperforming, I may just be overreacting but does Gardner still have a chance? Especially with all of Hicks ethics issues.

Considering Biden is up +13, I somehow doubt those undecideds currently lean Gardner.

[wbrocks67]

What's interesting is that Tillis, McSally, etc are flialing b/c they aren't consolidating Rs, but this has Perdue (and Gardner) at like 88% of Republicans, so that 45% number isn't going to budge a whole lot more. Independents it appears will swing the race in GA, where 30% are currently undecided here

[MillennialModerate]

HOW DO THEY POLL ALL THESE RACES AND NOT MAINE

My god

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

HOW DO THEY POLL ALL THESE RACES AND NOT MAINE

My god

They never poll MA primary or KS primary or KS Senate, they give us the same polls.

At least it keeps OP off, to stop from derailing the thread about how John James is gonna win

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL Hickenlooper. He isn't going to lose, but he will underperform Biden. It's too unfortunate Dems didn't nominate a better candidate than this bland dude who was ethical issues.

McSally is pretty much done before it even begun. That one is the biggest shocker this cycle. When she was appointed or even at the end of last year, I though her chances were about 50-50. Instead, she has cratered big league.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs have been in disarray in AZ since McCain has died. Ducey was lucky he won in 2018.  

AZ is a Lean D state now and Ducey is now unpopular and wont be able to dispatch Kelly in 2022

That's why Megan and Cindy McCain endorsed Biden

[Pollster]

Every poll of Colorado so far, regardless of the Dem candidate, has shown Gardner at 38-42%. It is looking more and more like this is his ceiling, and that is far more important than the margin by which he is trailing.

Stapleton received about the same 42%-ish in his gubernatorial run, and like Gardner, never exceeded that number in polling despite varying margins by which he trailed.

[Calthrina950]

Every poll of Colorado so far, regardless of the Dem candidate, has shown Gardner at 38-42%. It is looking more and more like this is his ceiling, and that is far more important than the margin by which he is trailing.

Stapleton received about the same 42%-ish in his gubernatorial run, and like Gardner, never exceeded that number in polling despite varying margins by which he trailed.

Colorado is becoming an increasingly inflexible state, and it's working to the detriment of Republicans. The best percentage which they managed in 2018 was 45.14%, which was what George Brauchler obtained in the Attorney General's race against Phil Weiser. Gardner will be lucky if he manages to reach that same percentage.