KY (GHY Research Group, McGrath Internal): Trump +12
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  KY (GHY Research Group, McGrath Internal): Trump +12		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: KY (GHY Research Group, McGrath Internal): Trump +12  (Read 1079 times)
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« on: July 16, 2020, 03:49:25 PM »
Trump - 53
Biden - 41

800 LV, July 7-12, +/- 3.5%
https://amymcgrath.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Polling-Memo-07-16.pdf
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2020, 03:52:29 PM »
« Edited: July 16, 2020, 03:58:44 PM by #Klobmentum »
Biden doing 9 points better than Hillary, which matches up with national polls.

Will Biden get within single digits here? Almost certainly not. Can he match Obama's 2008 margin? Probably.

Edit: Also usual caveat about internal polls.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2020, 04:11:10 PM »
Doubt it ends up quite this close, but Biden over 40% in Kentucky certainly seems consistent with a 10 point lead nationally.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2020, 05:38:02 PM »
McGrath can win 45 to 41
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2020, 07:36:50 PM »
Would not be surprised if Biden does about as well as Obama 2008.
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IAMCANADIAN
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« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2020, 07:48:33 PM »
Ann Coulter effect.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2020, 08:44:17 PM »
Quote from: #Klobmentum on July 16, 2020, 03:52:29 PM
Biden doing 9 points better than Hillary, which matches up with national polls.

Percentage-wise yeah, but margin-wise (which ultimately is what matters), this poll shows Biden doing 18 points better than Clinton (from -30 to -12). If compared to the national margins/uniform swing, that'd be a Biden +20 national PV win. Obviously not going to happen - but I wouldn't be surprised if Biden improves by more in KY than in non-swing states with similar compositions. It's also an internal, so giant grain of salt.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2020, 02:18:22 AM »
Battleground Kentucky is coming in 2020.... Wink

More seriously though....

Would definitely be curious about the regional breakdowns in KY, since in theory it might be representative of swings in neighboring states (most significantly OH), as well as to some extent Southern IN, and even parts of MO and AR....

Obviously Biden is extremely unlikely to win KY without Trump having a "live boy / dead girl" type of catastrophic campaign event but the better Biden does in KY, the easier it will be for McGrath to potentially scoop up enough Trump "Reluctant Voters" to make it over the finish line.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2020, 06:27:03 AM »
IIRC, 538 says internals on average gives something like 6% better result for the sponsor. So if we think that Biden is up by 10% nationally and make an adjustment like that it would suggest KY as R +28. It was R +32 last time so that doesn't sound too unreasonable.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2020, 06:46:33 AM »
Quote from: Gustaf on July 17, 2020, 06:27:03 AM
IIRC, 538 says internals on average gives something like 6% better result for the sponsor. So if we think that Biden is up by 10% nationally and make an adjustment like that it would suggest KY as R +28. It was R +32 last time so that doesn't sound too unreasonable.

K+28 would basically mean Biden was duplicating Clinton's nationwide margin. Trump won by 30 in 2016.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2020, 07:34:49 AM »
The memo also had these previous results:

June:
Trump 54%
Biden 39%

May:
Trump 57%
Biden 36%
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2020, 09:06:31 AM »
Useless poll we need a MA Sen primary poll
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Holmes
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« Reply #12 on: July 17, 2020, 09:21:41 AM »
Quote from: MR. KAYNE WEST on July 17, 2020, 09:06:31 AM
Useless poll we need a MA Sen primary poll

Same. Wish the McGrath campaign would poll MA-Sen.
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #13 on: July 17, 2020, 09:56:03 AM »
18 point swing from 2016.

Even with 6 point bias its a 12 point swing.
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