Monmouth-National: Biden +12

[Person Man]

An incumbent has NEVER been down this much and come back. Not even Truman or 41.

This election is over.

President Biden has a nice ring to it

Can we stop? This election will tighten. Democrats are too complacent and cocky.

Well, yeah. There is always the chance that Biden will be remembered as the WOAT of major presidential candidates. Maybe if he improves on Hillary somewhat, keeps the House blue, but still loses, he would be considered a Hillary-level mistake (say he loses 1 friewal state instead of three and loses every sunbelt (TX,AZ,NC,GA,FL) state) , but if he only gets to like 240 EVs or does worse or loses the house it totally puts him at a whole new level.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

538 has incorporated this poll. They now have Biden +9.6

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

An incumbent has NEVER been down this much and come back. Not even Truman or 41.

This election is over.

President Biden has a nice ring to it

Can we stop? This election will tighten. Democrats are too complacent and cocky.

Well, yeah. There is always the chance that Biden will be remembered as the WOAT of major presidential candidates. Maybe if he improves on Hillary somewhat, keeps the House blue, but still loses, he would be considered a Hillary-level mistake, but if he only get to like 240 or does worse or loses the house it totally puts him at a whole new level.

If Biden somehow loses this, unless something weird happens beyond his control, he and Hillary will both be looked at as massive mistakes. In fact, it will probably sully Obama's legacy. Yeah, he won two terms, but neither his first SoS nor his VP could overcome a blowhard who built a political steamroller by tweeting that Obama was born in Kenya.

I think it's much more likely that Biden wins by 14 points, and all the Bernie Bros cry that if the safe, bland, status quo choice blew Trump off the map, the risky, progressive choice would also have won.

[Yank2133]

Ok, now I am back to feeling good again. +12 with an A+ pollster >>>>>>

+12 Monmouth, +14 NYT/Siena... but OANN/Gravis had him tied in Florida and down slightly in a heavily skewed sample of Arizona, so clearly Trump will win in a landslide.

Eh that Yougov Texas poll was concerning for Biden and the PPP michigan poll too

If Trump is winning Texas by just 4 points on election night, he's losing the presidency.

Yes but Texas+4 in Biden's dream environment. I expect the election to tighten. If Trump is winning Texas by 7 on election night, the election is tilt Trump.

That would be worse then the 9 point win Trump had in 2016. So I don’t know how the election becomes tilt Trump if he wins Texas by 7.

[Rookie Yinzer]

An incumbent has NEVER been down this much and come back. Not even Truman or 41.

This election is over.

President Biden has a nice ring to it

We still have Senate races to win. We have tons of work ahead of us.

[Adam Griffin]

Just a shout out to Monmouth for PUSHING people. 6% undecided/other is normal and acceptable.

What these other pollsters are doing with 10-15% and even higher undecided is getting ridiculous.

Thing is, one would logically assume that for a candidate to be up by double digits, there has to be quite a bit of "soft" support in the mix (people saying they're supporting Biden but who could be swayed) and/or a lot of people who are on the fence (people who'd naturally be Trump voters but who are non-committal at the moment, thereby driving his totals lower).

I get what you mean, but a higher-than-average undecided figure for this election wouldn't be unusual.

[Alben Barkley]

Ok, now I am back to feeling good again. +12 with an A+ pollster >>>>>>

+12 Monmouth, +14 NYT/Siena... but OANN/Gravis had him tied in Florida and down slightly in a heavily skewed sample of Arizona, so clearly Trump will win in a landslide.

Eh that Yougov Texas poll was concerning for Biden and the PPP michigan poll too

If Trump is winning Texas by just 4 points on election night, he's losing the presidency.

Yes but Texas+4 in Biden's dream environment. I expect the election to tighten. If Trump is winning Texas by 7 on election night, the election is tilt Trump.

Why are you so sure the election will tighten? Just as likely that it will become even less close or simply remain about the same until November. None of these scenarios would be unprecedented, but I will say that given how consistent Trump's numbers have been, if anything I"m inclined to lean towards the latter as most likely right now.

By the way, another poll came out today showing Biden up by 2 in Texas, an improvement from the last time the same pollster had him down by 2. Why are you focusing on the one with him down by 4, which is actually an outlier of recent Texas polls which have all been within a couple points? Then why are you taking that as a sign Trump will win by 7? Bizarre mental gymnastics math right here.

Excessive pessimism does not make you a "Sane Democrat" by the way. It just means you're overreacting to the 2016 upset. How anyone could see polls with Biden up by double digits nationally and high single/double digits in most swing states, with Texas close, and react by saying the election is probably Tilt Trump is beyond me.

[WD]

An incumbent has NEVER been down this much and come back. Not even Truman or 41.

This election is over.

President Biden has a nice ring to it

We still have Senate races to win. We have tons of work ahead of us.

I agree. But I’m feeling pretty good about our chances right now. I like to be optimistic.

[ProudModerate2]

All recent ...

A+  Marist  =  Biden +8
A    Suffolk  =  Biden +12
A+  Monmouth  =  Biden +12

Beautiful, don't you think?

[Person Man]

An incumbent has NEVER been down this much and come back. Not even Truman or 41.

This election is over.

President Biden has a nice ring to it

We still have Senate races to win. We have tons of work ahead of us.

I agree. But I’m feeling pretty good about our chances right now. I like to be optimistic.

There could even be a reverse coattail situation where Biden doesn’t win because there’s a reverse coattail situation where people don’t want a lame duck on Day 1. That’s what could have gotten Kerry and to a lesser extent Romney. Unless he won big, he wouldn’t have the votes in the senate to overturn the ACA or get the Federalist Society their seats.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I mean anything *can* happen and I don't want to jinx it, but there really is no reason to believe that it will tighten. I mean, there's just as much of a chance that it will tighten, that it will stay the same, or that Biden's lead will grow

[WD]

An incumbent has NEVER been down this much and come back. Not even Truman or 41.

This election is over.

President Biden has a nice ring to it

We still have Senate races to win. We have tons of work ahead of us.

I agree. But I’m feeling pretty good about our chances right now. I like to be optimistic.

There could even be a reverse coattail situation where Biden doesn’t win because there’s a reverse coattail situation where people don’t want a lame duck on Day 1. That’s what could have gotten Kerry and to a lesser extent Romney. Unless he won big, he wouldn’t have the votes in the senate to overturn the ACA or get the Federalist Society their seats.

Wdym? As in people won’t vote for Biden because the Democrats won’t win the Senate

[Pollster]

Monmouth tested two versions of the presidential vote choice question on randomized
halves of the poll sample. Version A included the two major party nominees and a generic “other” candidate.
Version B also included Jo Jorgensen the Libertarian and Howie Hawkins of the Green Party by name.
[...]
After balancing the demographic compositions of both half-samples, version A produced a result of 54% Biden, 42% Trump, 2% generic other candidate, and 2% undecided. Version B produced a result of 52% Biden, 39% Trump, 4% Jorgensen, 2% generic other candidate, less than 1% Hawkins, and 3% undecided.

Huh. This method is a bit weird.

We do this pretty often in high-cost internal polls but I don't think I've ever seen a public pollster do it.

[Person Man]

An incumbent has NEVER been down this much and come back. Not even Truman or 41.

This election is over.

President Biden has a nice ring to it

We still have Senate races to win. We have tons of work ahead of us.

I agree. But I’m feeling pretty good about our chances right now. I like to be optimistic.

There could even be a reverse coattail situation where Biden doesn’t win because there’s a reverse coattail situation where people don’t want a lame duck on Day 1. That’s what could have gotten Kerry and to a lesser extent Romney. Unless he won big, he wouldn’t have the votes in the senate to overturn the ACA or get the Federalist Society their seats.

Wdym? As in people won’t vote for Biden because the Democrats won’t win the Senate

It sounds dubious but maybe voters know they are voting for someone who won't deliver? That was talked about heavily with Hillary. The House would have half lame-ducked her. Though I imagine if the media didn't go after her on that last week, she would have won by enough to take Kander, McGinity, and Feingold across to 51. Florida, Ohio, and Indiana would have been nice but they ran really bad campaigns. In Florida, it was almost comical.

I'm looking at the numbers and maybe if Romney got in there by the numbers Dick Morris was saying he was, he could have gotten ND,MT,IN,WI, OH, and MAYBE one more.

Kerry would have won AK,FL,NC,KY, and SD if he won by what he lost by. That would have been enough to take the senate.

[WD]

An incumbent has NEVER been down this much and come back. Not even Truman or 41.

This election is over.

President Biden has a nice ring to it

We still have Senate races to win. We have tons of work ahead of us.

I agree. But I’m feeling pretty good about our chances right now. I like to be optimistic.

There could even be a reverse coattail situation where Biden doesn’t win because there’s a reverse coattail situation where people don’t want a lame duck on Day 1. That’s what could have gotten Kerry and to a lesser extent Romney. Unless he won big, he wouldn’t have the votes in the senate to overturn the ACA or get the Federalist Society their seats.

Wdym? As in people won’t vote for Biden because the Democrats won’t win the Senate

It sounds dubious but maybe voters know they are voting for someone who won't deliver? That was talked about heavily with Hillary. The House would have half lame-ducked her. Though I imagine if the media didn't go after her on that last week, she would have won by enough to take Kander, McGinity, and Feingold across to 51. Florida, Ohio, and Indiana would have been nice but they ran really bad campaigns. In Florida, it was almost comical.

I'm looking at the numbers and maybe if Romney got in there by the numbers Dick Morris was saying he was, he could have gotten ND,MT,IN,WI, OH, and MAYBE one more.

Kerry would have won AK,FL,NC,KY, and SD if he won by what he lost by. That would have been enough to take the senate.

Tbh I think a modest Biden win is enough to flip the Senate (325EVs or more)

[Former President tack50]

In other notes Jorgensen beating Johnson 2016 would be absolutely insane though it probably will not happen

[Brittain33]

An incumbent has NEVER been down this much and come back. Not even Truman or 41.

This election is over.

President Biden has a nice ring to it

Can we stop? This election will tighten. Democrats are too complacent and cocky.

Sorry. Not even Carter was down by this much in 1980

I’m going to be a broken record here and say Biden could die or fall ill and everything would be called into question.

[Hammy]

An incumbent has NEVER been down this much and come back. Not even Truman or 41.

This election is over.

President Biden has a nice ring to it

Can we stop? This election will tighten. Democrats are too complacent and cocky.

Sorry. Not even Carter was down by this much in 1980

I’m going to be a broken record here and say Biden could die or fall ill and everything would be called into question.

Given their similar ages I'd say the chances are about even between this happening to Biden or Trump.

[Bidenworth2020]

An incumbent has NEVER been down this much and come back. Not even Truman or 41.

This election is over.

President Biden has a nice ring to it

Can we stop? This election will tighten. Democrats are too complacent and cocky.

Sorry. Not even Carter was down by this much in 1980

I’m going to be a broken record here and say Biden could die or fall ill and everything would be called into question.

Biden is in good health, at least physically, by all indications. Get outta with this malarkey point.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Look at that 65+ vote!

Great honer, thank you crusty olds!

[Brittain33]

An incumbent has NEVER been down this much and come back. Not even Truman or 41.

This election is over.

President Biden has a nice ring to it

Can we stop? This election will tighten. Democrats are too complacent and cocky.

Sorry. Not even Carter was down by this much in 1980

I’m going to be a broken record here and say Biden could die or fall ill and everything would be called into question.

Biden is in good health, at least physically, by all indications. Get outta with this malarkey point.

I didn't mean to say he's dying, it's just a function of his age and COVID. I'm sure he's in reasonably good health, but my parents are in their late 70s and early 80s, and people that age die all the time. The chart below estimates a 5% chance of dying, and we know it's a little higher this year because of COVID.

https://www.finder.com/life-insurance/odds-of-dying

5% isn't a lot but it's much more than the 1% or less younger candidates have had.

And honestly I think 5% is greater than the chance Trump changes the person he is sufficiently to actually earn reelection in a pandemic + economic crash.

[Bidenworth2020]

An incumbent has NEVER been down this much and come back. Not even Truman or 41.

This election is over.

President Biden has a nice ring to it

Can we stop? This election will tighten. Democrats are too complacent and cocky.

Sorry. Not even Carter was down by this much in 1980

I’m going to be a broken record here and say Biden could die or fall ill and everything would be called into question.

Biden is in good health, at least physically, by all indications. Get outta with this malarkey point.

I didn't mean to say he's dying, it's just a function of his age and COVID. I'm sure he's in reasonably good health, but my parents are in their late 70s and early 80s, and people that age die all the time. The chart below estimates a 5% chance of dying, and we know it's a little higher this year because of COVID.

https://www.finder.com/life-insurance/odds-of-dying

5% isn't a lot but it's much more than the 1% or less younger candidates have had.

And honestly I think 5% is greater than the chance Trump changes the person he is sufficiently to actually earn reelection in a pandemic + economic crash.

This doesn't factor in the fact Biden has access to some of the best healthcare coverage in the world. That alone shrinks the 5% you cited considerably.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/jmilescoleman/status/1278711035474718720?s=21

That's actually awesome news.

[Yellowhammer]

There is a greater likelihood that Biden dies before election day than that he loses to Trump.

[Badger]

My goodness. A small select number of conservatives and Republicans are apparently having second thoughts about having elected as serial rapist as president!