My RNG governors vs. the current governors

[Drew]

Inspired by this thread.  In the manner described in that thread, I used a random number generator to determine winners of each gubernatorial election from 2017-20 (excluding VT and NH 2018).  This resulted in the following alternate governors:

AL: Kay Ivey (R)
AK: Mead Treadwell (R)
AS: Lemanu Peleti Mauga (Nonpartisan)
AZ: Doug Ducey (R)
AR: Leticia Sanders (D)
CA: Gavin Newsom (D)
CO: Doug Robinson (R)
CT: Ned Lamont (D)
DE: David Bosco (R)
DC: Muriel Bowser (D)
FL: Adam Putnam (R)
GA: Stacey Abrams (D)
GU: Carl T.C. Gutierrez (D)
HI: Colleen Hanabusa (D)
ID: Raul Labrador (R)
IL: Sam McCann (Conservative)
IN: Eric Holcomb (R)
IA: Fred Hubbell (D)
KS: Arden Andersen (D)
KY: Rocky Adkins (D)
LA: Eddie Rispone (R)
ME: Betsy Sweet (D)
MD: Larry Hogan (R)
MA: Charlie Baker (R)
MI: Shri Thanedar (D)
MN: Erin Murphy (D)
MS: Jim Hood (D)
MO: Nicole Galloway (D)
MP: Ralph Torres (R)
MT: Greg Gianforte (R)
NE: Krystal Gabel (R)
NV: Dan Schwartz (R)
NH: Chris Sununu (R)
NJ: John Wisniewski (D)
NM: Jeff Apodaca (D)
NY: Marc Molinaro (R)
NC: Dan Forest (R)
ND: Doug Burgum (R)
OH: Mike DeWine (R)
OK: Todd Lamb (R)
OR: Sam Carpenter (R)
PA: Paul Mango(R)
PR: Alexandra Lugaro (Citizen's Victory Movement)
RI: Allan Fung (R)
SC: Henry McMaster (R)
SD: Marty Jackley (R)
TN: Karl Dean (D)
TX: Andrew White (D)
UT: Jon Huntsman Jr. (R)
VT: John Klar (R)
VA: Tom Perriello (D)
VI: Janet Millin Young (I)
WA: Jay Inslee (D)
WV: Jim Justice (R)
WI: Matt Flynn (D)
WY: Mark Gordon (R)

Among states, the partisan balance is 29R/20D/1C (vs real-life 27R/23D).



This map appears to be a bit of a throwback in many ways, as Dems govern many Midwestern (except IL, LOL) and Southern states and appear less "coastal".  Meanwhile, the GOP dominates the Mountain West and has a strong foothold in the Northeast.

When evaluating this map, I'm thinking about what it means for redistricting efforts.  PA and NC with GOP governors are a liability for Dems, but at least those states have Dem-leading Supreme Courts that could strike down an egregious map.  Dems governing TX and GA¹ could be huge, as they can buffer GOP legislatures.  Dem govs can have the same effect in other states like TN and MO, as other threads on this forum have noted that the GOP in these states are considering "cracking" major cities to their benefit.  However, GOP/Conservative govs in IL², NY³, and CO would probably cost Dems some seats as they prevent Dem gerrymanders.  States like FL⁴, OH, and NE⁵ are a wash as they still have GOP govs regardless.  WI and MI govs ⁶ continue to buffer their GOP legislatures.

¹Yay Stacey Abrams!
²IL ends up with a Trumpist governor with legal problems.  I guess someone needs to fill Blago's cell.
³At least Cuomo's gone.
⁴FL Dems can't even win in a hypothetical, but Putnam>DeSantis
⁵Gabel>>>Ricketts
⁶Flynn<Evers and Thanedar<Whitmer

Overall, I'd say I'd slightly prefer the status quo, due to a slightly greater number of Dems and potential for unknown unforeseen effects of this hypothetical.  Tough call though.

[Continential]

Why did Irey Vaughan become Governor as she ran for Lt. Governor, not Governor?

[Drew]

Why did Irey Vaughan become Governor as she ran for Lt. Governor, not Governor?

Thanks for catching that, I was looking at the Lt Gov candidates rather than Gov candidates.  Changed it to Paul Mango.

[Calthrina950]

This would have been a good gubernatorial map 30 or 40 years ago.

[Utah Neolib]

I don’t like a lot of these people you’ve changed, but I’d take this for the sole reason that Jon Huntsman Jr is governor of Utah

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Did this.



I am going to assume this map takes place in 1980.